Significant Snowfall for New England

[donsutherland1]

In 1629, Rev. Francis Higginson wrote of the climate in New England:

<i>[I]n the winter season for two months space the earth is commonly covered with snow, which is accompanied with sharp biting frosts, something more sharp than in old England, and therefore we are forced to make great fires.</i>

Aside from the early December blizzard and mid-December snowstorm that ensured snow cover through much of December, Boston is several weeks shy of having "two months space" when "the earth is commonly covered with snow."

January and February saw Boston suffer from a depressing mini snow drought. The torture was made even worse by the prevalence of extreme cold, especially in January.

But things are changing. A storm that will redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast and press northeastward will likely bring Beantown a significant snowfall.

This storm, in the face of arguments that Winter, will in a sense be "history's revenge."

Briefly, let's recall the information that was posted at the end of December:

<i>In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more in both Boston and New York City:

There was a somewhat greater tendency for suppression, though both cities still saw above normal snowfall.

• 4/7 (57.1%) of seasons saw more than 45” for the season in Boston with an average of 59.0”.
• 6/7 (85.7%) of seasons saw more than 30” for the season in New York City with an average of 47.7”.

Finally in winters in which Washington, DC received 6” or more snow in December, New York City and Boston received 12” or more, snowfall averages came to:

Boston: 52.4” (least: 44.9”)
New York City: 44.7” (least: 31.4”)</i>

New York City has reached 37.8" and may flirt with or exceed 40" by the end of the upcoming storm. If Boston can receive one or perhaps even two significant snowfalls, Boston could move into striking distance or even achieve the general range of snowfall suggested from past history.

For the March 16-17, 2004 event, I anticipate the following accumulations:

Albany: 6"-10"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Boston: 7"-12"
Hartford: 7"-14"
Newark: 2"-5"
New York City: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 1"-2"
Portland, ME: 7"-14"
Providence: 6"-10"
White Plains: 4"-8"
Wilmington, DE: 1" or less
Worcester: 8"-16"

[BritBob]

Thanks Don, once again another great post Certainly looks an interesting few days ahead up here, I shall be watching.

[paul e]

Don, I always find your posts to be mature, thoughtful, factual, to the point, and devoid of ego. Of course, being from my area doesnt hoit!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Bob.

The coming days will be quite interesting all across the Northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada. Even as the calendar moves ever closer to its date with the Vernal Equinox, winter suddenly seems reluctant to let the spring bloom in all its flowery glory.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Paul. This time, the situation is far more favorable than the lst storm in which the ground was whitened generally from Purchase, NY northward.

[Stephanie]

I loved your article in the newsletter Don! Enjoy your snow!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don, Parts of VT, ( North of Manchester, VT) may get as much as 18 inches.......


Here, 5-8 looks good.......

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Stephanie. I'm glad you liked the article. With the March 16-17 snowfall, New York City has now had its first consecutive winters with 40" or more of snowfall since Winters 1947-48 and 1948-49. Another moderate snowfall appears likely later tomorrow night into Friday.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

It actually appears that northern New England largely missed out on the storm with snowfall amounts falling well below what had been anticipated from the Berkshires northward.

As for my totals, I'll have actual amounts sometime tomorrow. There will probably be some busts but more hits than busts.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yeah, Don, I busted as well....


Anyway, Back on the WWBB, Hooralph and Jerry ( Weathafella) Posted some amazing snow photos!

[donsutherland1]

<b>Note:</b> Was updated at 3:20 pm for new totals that were released at 3 pm. Briefly, some cities such as Worcester were nearly resurrected from the depths of the "bust" category with the new data.

For March 16-17, 2004, my estimates were:

Albany: 6"-10"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Boston: 7"-12"
Hartford: 7"-14"
Newark: 2"-5"
New York City: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 1"-2"
Portland, ME: 7"-14"
Providence: 6"-10"
White Plains: 4"-8"
Wilmington, DE: 1" or less
Worcester: 8"-16"

Final Totals:

Albany: 9.0"
Allentown: 4.5"
Boston: 9.6"
Hartford: 5.4" (Bust: 1.6" below range)
Newark: 7.2" (Bust: 2.2" above range)
New York City: 4.0"
Philadelphia: 1.8"
Portland, ME: 4.6" (Bust: 2.4" below range)
Providence: 3.3" (Bust: 2.7" below range)
White Plains: 5.8"
Wilmington, DE: 1.1" (Bust: 0.1" above range)
Worcester: 7.1" (Bust: 0.9" below range)

All said, there were six busted forecasts. Four of the six included New England stations where snowfall fell short of anticipated amounts. Newark, included the lone bust where snowfall exceeded what had been anticipated by a large margin.