Echoes of 1956: New Jersey to Bear Brunt of Storm

[donsutherland1]

March 19 is the 48th anniversary of the noted 1956 snowstorm that followed closely on the heels of a moderate storm and buried parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. under 1 to 1 1/2 feet of snow.

Some excerpts for the memories:

<i>Winter spread a snow carpet 13.5 inches deep [in New York City]...in a last unmatronly pet. It left an icy footing for spring...</i>

<i>Because of the high winds accompanying the snowstorm, homeowners and storekeepers will be obliged to shovel from their sidewalks some of the highest drifts in recent memory.</i>

<i>A foot and a half of snow that fell in just thirty hours disrupted transportation and industry across most of New Jersey...</i>

As far as the similarities with 1956 go, the similarities end with the timing of the storm, its following on the heels of another system, and its general focus of heaviest snow.

To avoid confusion brought about by the subject heading, it bears repeating that this storm will <i>not</i> be a repeat of the 1956 storm.

Nevertheless, it will be fairly impressive for the season across a narrow part of the region stretching from eastern Pennsylvania across central New Jersey.

Several factors come into play:

1) The storm will be a clipper-type system originating in Saskatchewan, Canada. For a general principles governing such systems, one should access DT's <b>excellent discussion</b> of clipper-type systems.
2) Temperatures today are running slightly above the guidance courtesy of some breaks in the clouds. Hence, some degree of cooling will be required, particularly the farther south one goes in order for the storm to produce snow.
3) The height of the storm will likely occur prior to sunrise, rendering the sun's increasing angle irrelevant for that part of the storm.
4) The storm will be moving fairly quickly and will be a roughly 9-12-hour event.

Considering the above factors, I believe the following accumulations are likely:

Albany: 0.5"-1.5"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: Trace
Boston: 0.5"-2.5"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 3"-7"
Philadelphia: 2.5"-5.5"
Providence: 1.5"-3.5"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-3"

[Stephanie]

Gee, THANKS Don! LOL!

I've seen the WSW posted for my area. The day before Spring I'll have 5 inches of snow on the ground.

[donsutherland1]

Enjoy the snow, Stephanie. After all, the calendar is still in winter

[Steve H.]

Still a bit puzzled why Upton dropped the watch and now has an advisory, particularly when looking at the 18z GFS. I think that the eastern zones will get 6 - 8 in western Nassau and Suffolk counties out to the east end of LI. Maybe they looked at the 12z only and went conservative. Thsi snow should accumulate quickly as it is at night and is colder up and down. Will be interesting how this pans out. Another Chamber of Commerce day in central Florida

[RU848789]

I was also puzzled as to why Upton went from WSWatches with 5-7" amounts forecast to WWAdvisories with 3-6" amounts forecast. Obviously, they saw something, but didn't explain their reasoning. Even more puzzling to me is how Philly has Cecil and New Castle Counties with WSWarnings for 2-6", but Sterling has the the counties in MD immediately to the west - Harford, Baltimore, etc. - as having an inch or less of snow - the inland areas generally get more in these scenarios, not way less. And the entire tier of MD counties bordering PA are listed as getting an inch or two at most, while the adjacent counties in PA, both from the Philly and State College offices, are all under WSWarnings! Sounds like not a lot of coordination going on.

[Stephanie]

Enjoy the snow, Stephanie. After all, the calendar is still in winter

That it is!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Joe Bastardi, is saying that IF the Bands (set up) 12-15" is possible

[Anonymous]

Joe Bastardi, is saying that IF the Bands (set up) 12-15" is possible

Hmm, last I saw he was calling for max localized amounts of 10-12", which seems reasonable, if not a bit too high. This will be a great snowfall for you guys (lucky bastards ), especially considering it will be your second in a week and it's mid-March, but it seems doubtful that there will be many reports of greater than 10". Probably a nice swath of 3-7", though, which should be more than enough to go along with Tuesday's event!

[donsutherland1]

Brett,

I believe this system is moving quickly enough that even though a few areas, to borrow from JB's colorful vocabulary, will get "thumped," the "thumping" won't last long enough to bring more than some widely scattered 10" amounts. Of course, I could be wrong and I busted on the "good" side with regard to EWR for the 3/16-17 event, but we'll see.

Chris,

I haven't had a chance to check out JB's site since this morning. Did JB make his reference in an updated discussion, on the videos, or over the radio?

Also, Chris, I've uploaded the Winter 1850-51 discussion, so you might want to read it online. It's a little shorter than the 1851-52 discussion.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Joe Bastardi, is saying that IF the Bands (set up) 12-15" is possible

Hmm, last I saw he was calling for max localized amounts of 10-12", which seems reasonable, if not a bit too high. This will be a great snowfall for you guys (lucky bastards ), especially considering it will be your second in a week and it's mid-March, but it seems doubtful that there will be many reports of greater than 10". Probably a nice swath of 3-7", though, which should be more than enough to go along with Tuesday's event!

Yeah, It should be A NICE Scene tomorrow morning....


But, 10-12" would be nice, I will take 5-8" anyway!


Brett, You should be Here! Maybe 1 day, or next year I will go Northeast of Buffalo, and see rates over 7" per hour........! ( One Day..... Hopefully)

[donsutherland1]

My overall forecast for this storm proved to be quite bad. In most places, less snow than I had anticipated fell. The verification follows.

For New York City, Accuweather.com's 1.0" estimate from early this afternoon has been used, as the reported figure at Central Park is highly suspect:

- The Upper West Side saw an estimate 1"-2".
- Figures at all parts of NYC were above a trace amount, including: Graves End (Brooklyn): 0.7"; Ridgewood (Queens): 0.7"; LaGuardia Airport: 0.8" (Queens).
- Earlier this winter, the National Weather Service noted measurement issues at Central Park

Given these figures, the Accuweather.com estimated figure appears reasonable and I will use it for verification purposes.

With respect to Central Park's continuing measurement problems, I believe either the observer should be trained/retrained with respect to measuring snow or an experienced spotter be employed to take measurements in the Park.

For an observation area that has provided daily records since 1869, the recent difficulties are an issue that poses a hazard to the credibility of a location for which extensive data exists. It would be a real loss to the meteorological community if the data at this location were to become unreliable.

<b>Forecast Amounts:</b>

Albany: 0.5"-1.5"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: Trace
Boston: 0.5"-2.5"
Bridgeport: 2"-4"
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 3"-7"
Philadelphia: 2.5"-5.5"
Providence: 1.5"-3.5"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-3"

<b>Actual Figures:</b>

Final Totals:

Albany: Trace (Bust: 0.5" below range)
Allentown: 3.8" (Bust: 0.2" below range)
Baltimore: None
Boston: Trace (Bust: 0.5" below range)
Bridgeport: 5.0" (Bust: 1.0" above range)
New York City: 1.0" Est. (Bust: 1.0" below range)
Newark: 1.7" (Bust: 1.3" below range)
Philadelphia: 1.9" (Bust: 0.6" below range)
Providence: 0.3" (Bust: 1.2" below range)
Wilmington, DE: 1.3"

All said, aside from the beauty of the snow that fell up in southern Westchester (6.2" fell at White Plains, NY), the large number of busts were disappointing.

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/03192004-9.jpg">
Rye Marshlands Conservancy (Rye, New York)

[NJwx15]

Don, I was very dissapointed with this storm. Well hyped for 6-8" and it was 3" over here...Numerous times last night during my sleep i was restless thinking that this was going to bust for some reason, even tho all the models agreed on a substantial storm. Throughout the night i looked out the window to see "incredible snowfall rates" and there was nothing zippo...i may have gotten 2 hours of sleep total last night...finally 5am it was snowing hard outside, however it ended with a sloppy 3" that actually turned out to look absolutely gorgeous. By the way, im winternj over at WWBB, we talked to eachother about pictures last night, you can view them and consider them for your site over at http://community.webshots.com/album/115994306oYJcoM/1
Overall, a great winter, however i hate to end thingts on a bust

p.s: For some reason WWBB keeps on denying my entrance into the board with a message that says "There seems to have been a slight problem with the Wright-Weather database.
Please try again by pressing the refresh button in your browser."...and it is only me having this problem. so on that note, what exactly went wrong last night???

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

I'm having the same problem. I'll also be uploading some additional photos this evening--I don't know if you got my PM at WWBB.

[donsutherland1]

With respect to what went wrong, it appears that the combination of a somewhat more northerly course and also the warmer readings ahead of the storm (above the computer guidance), contributed to a less favorable outcome. Rather than the heaviest snow having fallen across central New Jersey, the heaviest amounts were recorded from northeast Pennsylvania, interior southeastern New York, and southern Connecticut.

[NJwx15]

Chris,

I'm having the same problem. I'll also be uploading some additional photos this evening--I don't know if you got my PM at WWBB.

no Don i didnt , i was having this problem since last night after our PM's. and it wasnt happening to anybody else. The only way i was able to read a topic (in which case i was able to send u a PM today) was if I clicked on the username under the column "recent post" on the forum main page, and then i clicked the topic he was posting in. I could not get to the forecasting discusiion page, and now it seems as if is a bigger prolem for more people because now i get the message when i click Bulliten Board. Sorry if that was confusing LOL. But, as for last night,it was a funny thing, I had some radiational cooling yesterday evening before the clouds and fell to 31 and i thought i was set. I then gradually rose ahead of the precip to 33, and i checked the history, and it went as high as 34.6 overnight. My dad said it was raining at 1am, not heavy, so im wondering if i even had any heavy precip before it changed to snow. It was a frightening time last night, I didnt do any of my hwk LOL, and from 4-5am i was thinking of how much i was screwed, and was not gonna sleep until i heard a phone ring...sure enough my dream came true, and then i prayed like hell it was a closing and not a delay...and in the end, Thank you Board of Ed. thats all i gotta say

[Stephanie]

It looks like it had just changed to snow around dawn when I woke up this morning. It started to come down heavily and quickly covered the lawns and cars. The streets followed later on. By the time I left the house at 7:40, I'd say we had an inch on the grass. The visibility driving south to Atlantic City was about a half a mile at best. The roads were alittle slippery and very slushy. It was a beautiful scene. I was totally amazed on the way home that there was hardly any snow to be seen.