Brazillian Scientists acknowledged that they were surprised

[Typhoon_Willie]

by the strength of the storm!! Duh!!!

Here is the article fromt the Yahoo news server...


Brazil Storm Kills 2, Injures at Least 39

26 minutes ago

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By BERND RADOWITZ, Associated Press Writer

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - A whirling storm battered the coast of southern Brazil on Sunday, killing two people, injuring at least 39 others and destroying hundreds of homes, civil defense officials said Sunday.

American meteorologists said winds exceeded 74 mph, making the storm the first hurricane on record in the South Atlantic. Brazilian scientists originally disagreed, but on Sunday they acknowledged the winds could have been as high as 94 mph — well above hurricane strength.

Brazil has no wind-measuring devices in the affected areas, and both sides said they were basing their estimates on satellite data.

Authorities were searching for 11 fishermen missing off the coast of Santa Catarina state after two boats sank nine miles offshore in 13-feet-high waves early Sunday, Navy Commander Paolo Baltore said.

The storm roared ashore early Sunday about 520 miles southwest of Rio de Janeiro. The number of injuries from the storm could rise, since it had cut communication with several towns, Santa Catarina state Civil Defense official Marcio Luiz Alves said late Sunday.

The storm damaged an estimated 20,000 homes in Santa Catarina, destroying 500 of them completely. That left about 1,500 people homeless and forced as many as 15,000 to flee their homes, Alves added.

The storm, dubbed Catarina by meteorologists, hit the coasts of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states late Saturday with heavy rains and high winds. It was dissipating over land late Sunday.

On Saturday, meteorologists from the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climatic Studies were calling the storm an "extra-tropical cyclone" with estimated winds of 50-56 mph.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) in Miami estimated the storm was a full-fledged, Category I hurricane with central winds of 75-80 mph. A private U.S. forecasting company, AccuWeather, said it also considered the storm a hurricane.

On Sunday, Brazilian scientists acknowledged they were surprised by the intensity of the storm.

Marcelo Moraes, a meteorologist at the Integrated Climate Center of Santa Catarina state, said winds could have reached 94 mph. Hurricanes begin at 74 mph.

Dr. Gustavo Escobar of the forecasting center also said the winds could have been stronger than 50 mph.

Near the city of Criciuma in Santa Catarina state, a tree smashed into a car and killed the driver, officials said. His wife was seriously injured. At least 34 others also were injured throughout the state, the civil defense said.

Strong winds and falling trees destroyed some 200 homes and damaged another 3,000 in Criciuma alone, civil defense officials said.

Off the coast, a police helicopter and air force plane were scanning the sea in hopes of finding the missing fishermen, Baltore said. A navy rescue vessel was also headed to the site.

In Torres in Rio Grande do Sul state, a house collapsed in an area of beach resorts pummeled by high winds, killing a child, Civil Defense official Marcio Luiz Alves said.

The storm swept the roofs off some 400 homes there and cut of the electricity of 35,000 people for more than 12 hours.

Five people in Torres were injured by falling roof parts and at least 150 people fled their homes and were sheltered in nearby schools, Rio Grande do Sul state Civil Defense officer Alexandre Wilante said.

The mayor of Torres declared a state of emergency. Both he and the Santa Catarina state assembly asked for donations of food and blankets.

[MWatkins]

Whelp...it's hard to imagine them missing so badly...but they did. They don't have much experience with this kind of thing...but the TPC does...and for them (Brazil) to summarily dismiss their guidance for what they dubbed an "extratropical cyclone" is irresponsible and belligerent at best.

That said...I wonder if part of their disregard for US advice has to do with the fingerprinting issues with Brazil and general global anti-american sentiment. I would sure hope not.

This is one of those unfortunate "I told you so's" from the board (our group). The people here were all OVER it...but Brazil completely missed.

MW

[CaluWxBill]

I wonder if they could do a Fujita-esque damage survey. This would give the F-rating, which estimates wind speed, and from there they could determine Hurricane strength. If 400 or so homes had their roofs blown off, that sounds like significant winds to say the least. Of course who knows what kind of structures they have. There is certainly no reason to believe they construct houses off of some sort of building code. but even so I would thing a moderately constructed home would withstand <74mph winds fairly well.

[MWatkins]

I wonder if they could do a Fujita-esque damage survey. This would give the F-rating, which estimates wind speed, and from there they could determine Hurricane strength. If 400 or so homes had their roofs blown off, that sounds like significant winds to say the least. Of course who knows what kind of structures they have. There is certainly no reason to believe they construct houses off of some sort of building code. but even so I would thing a moderately constructed home would withstand <74mph winds fairly well.

Assuming (and I'm doing just that) construction standards aren't geared for wind damage...I would guess that the homes losing roofs would be analogous to a mobel home's ability to withstand damage. Given that...a study would sure would be interesting and I bet they do something like that considering the historical significance of this event.

My guess would be somewhere around 85-90 mph.

MW

[Guest]

They were surprised???

A well developed storm with an eye was moving their way & NHC warned them it was a hurricane.How can anyone be surprised.

It was easy to look @ that thing & know that it had to have packed a pretty good punch.

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder if the NHC or anyone else will go down to Brazil and investigate the damage?

[weatherluvr]

The only reason I can think of for the Brazilian government's refusal to call this a tropical cyclone is money. Brazil has always enjoyed a warm water, hurricane-free coastline, something very few countries can claim. Why spend millions of dollars setting up an agency specifically for monitoring TC's when they don't get them? I guess they don't want this fluke storm upsetting their system, so they refuse to call it what it is.

A reckless rationale, but the only reason I can come up with.

[Derek Ortt]

50,000 that advisories will be written on the next S atl cane

[weatherluvr]

Okay people, move along... no hurricane to see here...

[Hurricanehink]

LOL at above. When that was loading, I thought a hurricane picture would come up. Great show.

[mf_dolphin]

Maybe we all should apply for a Met job in Brazil

[HurricaneGirl]

Good One weatheluvr!

[Clovis Padoan Filho]

Whelp...it's hard to imagine them missing so badly...but they did. They don't have much experience with this kind of thing...but the TPC does...and for them (Brazil) to summarily dismiss their guidance for what they dubbed an "extratropical cyclone" is irresponsible and belligerent at best.

That said...I wonder if part of their disregard for US advice has to do with the fingerprinting issues with Brazil and general global anti-american sentiment. I would sure hope not.

This is one of those unfortunate "I told you so's" from the board (our group). The people here were all OVER it...but Brazil completely missed.

MW

I guess some of they acctualy disagard from US for the anti-american sentiment. But I guess the most part of they, are just dump!!!!
bye