Question about the QBO winds

[cycloneye]

I haved seen conflicting information about those QBO winds (QUASSI BIENNAL OCCILLATION) direction that they are now some info indicate a west phase and other indicate that they are changing to the east.Anyone who may have a link about that may post it and clear this up.This factor is important for the atlantic in terms of more activity or less storms and hurricanes for the upcomming season.

[MWatkins]

Hey Cyclone...here's a good page from NCEP that tracks some of the QBO wind anoms...30/50M and 200MB plus 500MB temps.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt3.gif

It does look like it's coming back to the east (if Im reading this right and positive anoms are easterly....negative values are westerly) but the plots seem a bit dated and still in 2003.

This is the root page which has all sorts of fun indicies to play with (in fact these seem geared toward some of Gray's predictors):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /bulletin/

This is all I can find but I'm sure there's more out there.

MW

[Pinwheeler]

If you want to get right down to what the quasi biennial oscillation actually is, do this

Go to this web site http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/HistData/

Click on "daily composites" on the side

Pick vector wind - anomaly - 10mb, 30mb, 50mb, or 70mb (all in the stratosphere) - time period some recent day(s) - tropics or Africa view

(The QBO is wind anomaly in the stratosphere in the tropics)

Unfortunately this web site isn't working right now, so you will have to wait until it is working.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to both for the links.Interesting what is going on with that factor and as the weeks go by we will have a more clear picture I hope about which direction those winds are blowing and what effect it will have on the overall numbers for the season.Last year they were from the east and it was an active season but other factors played a roll in 2003 including the warm SST'S.Now let's see if those QBO winds are from the east again what other factors will play a roll in terms of more activity or less action in the atlantic.

[Guest]

Cycloneye, I do beleive the QBO was westerly last year at the beginning of the season. Here is the exerpt from my 2003 predictions:
This will be a westerly, favorable dierection this season. With the lack of a strengthening ENSO, and the easterly QBO that we had during the early portions of last season. Then the Shear from the El Nino. A westerly phase of the QBO shows favorable conditions for development of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Tropics. This is how the QBO affects Tropical Cyclogenesis are as follows:
1) Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis is inhibited during easterly phases of the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric winds and increased upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere wind shear; Which we saw last year.
2) For slow moving systems, the west phase of the QBO has a slower relative wind than does the east phase. This allows for greater coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere allowing for a more favorable enviroment for development.
So a Westerly QBO is in favor due to the fact we had a Easterly QBO last season. And weaker easterly winds due to the weaker Atlantic Ridge. This indicates a more active Cape Verde Hurricane Season then we have seen the past two seasons.
Now, this is a real good indication that we will have a ------- QBO this season! Hehe, I am still going to make you read my predictions on Thursday!!!

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, I do beleive the QBO was westerly last year at the beginning of the season. Here is the exerpt from my 2003 predictions:
This will be a westerly, favorable dierection this season. With the lack of a strengthening ENSO, and the easterly QBO that we had during the early portions of last season. Then the Shear from the El Nino. A westerly phase of the QBO shows favorable conditions for development of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Tropics. This is how the QBO affects Tropical Cyclogenesis are as follows:
1) Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis is inhibited during easterly phases of the QBO due to enhanced lower stratospheric winds and increased upper-troposphere-lower-stratosphere wind shear; Which we saw last year.
2) For slow moving systems, the west phase of the QBO has a slower relative wind than does the east phase. This allows for greater coupling between the lower stratosphere and the troposphere allowing for a more favorable enviroment for development.
So a Westerly QBO is in favor due to the fact we had a Easterly QBO last season. And weaker easterly winds due to the weaker Atlantic Ridge. This indicates a more active Cape Verde Hurricane Season then we have seen the past two seasons.
Now, this is a real good indication that we will have a ------- QBO this season! Hehe, I am still going to make you read my predictions on Thursday!!!

Hehe Bob I am waiting eagerly for your forecast on thursday.!!

[wxman57]

QBO has been from a "favorable" westerly condition for almost 2 years. Started in 2002. It's right at the end of that phase now and could be switching at any time. The typical period is from 20 to 36 months. Usually, the westerly phase lasts a bit longer than the easterly phase. Here's a graphic showing the QBO up through 2002. Figure a red "westerly" phase from 2002 to 2004+ and then back to easterly. Certainly, 2005 should be easterly phase.

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/qbo/qbo.jpg

[cycloneye]

QBO has been from a "favorable" westerly condition for almost 2 years. Started in 2002. It's right at the end of that phase now and could be switching at any time. The typical period is from 20 to 36 months. Usually, the westerly phase lasts a bit longer than the easterly phase. Here's a graphic showing the QBO up through 2002. Figure a red "westerly" phase from 2002 to 2004+ and then back to easterly. Certainly, 2005 should be easterly phase.

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data_sets/qbo/qbo.jpg

Thanks wxman57 for providing the link.Hummm 57 let's not go too ahead into 2005 yet. Let's deal with what is happening now that will be a factor going into the 2004 season.What I see in the link is a slow transition from west to east but will it be east when the peak of the season arrives? I guess we will have to wait and see about that.