What will Dr Gray's april outlook be like?

[cycloneye]

Here is the december outlook for 2004 from Dr Gray for you to see it and then compare it with the april one to come out at april 2nd.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/dec2003/

IMO he will leave the same numbers as the december ones 13/7/3 but we will see what he does.It will be important to see what he says in this april outlook about landfall probabilities for the US and the caribbean as in december he said that a high risk of a major cane striking the caribbean was a high probability.Let's see how the pattern is going to shape up this season and we will see if it is going to be favorable for above average activity or it will be an average season however already we can see an active hurricane season shaping up based in the pattern that is already in place but it will be a fun season to follow.

The poll about your predictions will be posted at March 15th.

[JCT777]

I think he will leave the numbers unchanged.

[wxman57]

No reason at all to change anything at this point. All the major forecast parameters have remained steady. Just got my airline tickets to the NHC in early April. I'll be there to hear his talk on Friday, April 9th.

[cycloneye]

No reason at all to change anything at this point. All the major forecast parameters have remained steady. Just got my airline tickets to the NHC in early April. I'll be there to hear his talk on Friday, April 9th.

Good that you are going there and let us know what the doc said. Well maybe he will highlight the april outlook that comes out a week before the 9th but he may say a little bit more in that conference.

[Anonymous]

This is just me...but I don't really care what his landfalls probs are. He now almost ALWAYS goes with above average US major hurricane probs...OF COURSE his probs will be higher than normal. I'm not saying this is stupid on his part, he's just going with odds. And that's what probs essentially are...odds, and he knows it. But can you really trust odds? Heck no, I already talked about this in another thread. Is it that big of a mystery that we haven't seen a US major hurricane since 1999, yet every season since then he's gone with above average probs in his preseason forecasts? Something to think about.

Let's see how the pattern shapes up?? The upcoming pattern is quite obvious...already pretty confident about what kind of season it will be at the moment, based on the research TWW and I have been doing (of course, anticipations can still change some between now and the dawn of the season). Waiting and seeing? Yeah, let's just sit around and watch things happen, then make a so-called prediction based on the consensus...that's like, totally not cool man!

Sorry if I came across as rude...just trying to make a point.

But what the hay...knowing him, I think he'll keep his numbers the way they are.

[hurricanetrack]

Just for fun- and for those who care, I will fire up my web cam during Dr. Gray's talk on April 9th in Orlando. Now- you cannot hear what he is saying and he will not be streaming or anything. But I can at least show you what he looks like LIVE with a new image every 10 seconds from my laptop and my Sprint PCS card.

Also- and more importantly, I will take lots of notes and post to my site (and here) anything that he elaborates on re: the seasonal forecast. My main objective is to see if he talks any about the east coast troff and whether or not he thinks it will be persistent this season.

I'll post a link here that day (April 9) to where you can see my web cam shot of him talking. It's pretty cool- I'll simply snap the camera on to my laptop and sit near the front of the hall. Dr. Gray will be at the podium speaking away.

Who knows- once Sprint ups their data rate, I'll be able to send audio back in real time. Maybe next year. But this will be fun none-the-less.

[cycloneye]

Just for fun- and for those who care, I will fire up my web cam during Dr. Gray's talk on April 9th in Orlando. Now- you cannot hear what he is saying and he will not be streaming or anything. But I can at least show you what he looks like LIVE with a new image every 10 seconds from my laptop and my Sprint PCS card.

Also- and more importantly, I will take lots of notes and post to my site (and here) anything that he elaborates on re: the seasonal forecast. My main objective is to see if he talks any about the east coast troff and whether or not he thinks it will be persistent this season.

I'll post a link here that day (April 9) to where you can see my web cam shot of him talking. It's pretty cool- I'll simply snap the camera on to my laptop and sit near the front of the hall. Dr. Gray will be at the podium speaking away.

Who knows- once Sprint ups their data rate, I'll be able to send audio back in real time. Maybe next year. But this will be fun none-the-less.

Great Mark that you will also be there as wxman57 will too.Mark anything important that the doc will say in that conference and may be known by the members come and post that because it will be very interesting what he says about the 2004 season and the TUTT.And I will be looking at that cam that day.

[hurricanetrack]

Luis:

You bet! I'm looking forward to going again this year to the conference. I've been every year since 1999 and have learned a lot by attending.

The web cam thing is a neat way to at least let people see what I'm seeing. I use it in our Chevy Tahoe during tropical storms and hurricanes. People really want a glimpse of what's happening NOW- not later. Even a medium-tech web cam is enough to give people what they want.

But- wait until the data stream gets faster over cellular. Before too long, people like my group, as well as other storm chasers, will be able to stream back LIVE web feeds with audio to their own site. That will change the Internet news gathering business as we know it. Testing things out like we will at the Conference brings us one step closer to doing that kind of stuff for visitors to my site.

Also- while I'm at the conference- I'll be attending a few meteorolgy sessions to learn more about hurricane intensity and track forecasting. Of great interest to me is which global models they're looking at putting more emphasis on- if any. It seems we really have the GFS, UKMET, EURO and NOGAPS to look at now. The GFDL plays a role too- but I am looking to see if someone there will offer some hints as to why the GFS blows it so much. We all remember Fabian showing up as a "hump" in the isobars when in fact it was a strong hurricane. Isabel was the same way (on the GFS). It was vexing to say the least. I sure hope that NCEP has done something to improve upon the initialization. We'll see....

[cycloneye]

Ok bumping this poll to see if more members post their opinions about what they think Dr Gray will do on friday when his april outlook is released.It will be interesting if he talks briefly about what happened in the south atlantic and what consequenses if any it may have in the north atlantic but I think that already his report is made however a line or two may be added.

[rainstorm]

things are starting to look a bit el nino'ish in the east pac. lets see what it looks like on 01jun

[Steve H.]

I agree with rainstorm on the "somewhat tilting toward El Nino look." Think Gray will bring down his numbers a bit to 11/7/2. But whether we get El Nino this summer is stil in doubt. Remember its the 3/4 regions that matter. Gray will down his numbers in April, then raise them back in June

[vbhoutex]

I haven't sen enough to make me think the possible El Ninoish conditions will show up soon enough to make any difference in the season. I think Gray will keep them the same.

[cycloneye]

Well David only a couple of days away to know what Dr Gray will say at his april outlook and if he will make a brief remark about the southern atlantic hurricane.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well I took a guess that he will not change his numbers at the conference. I hope that this will be a interesting season!