Dr. Gray mentioned positive SOI, but....

YouTube · #1 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Fri Apr 02, 2004 11:30 pm

...the last few days has seen an incredible dip in the SOI to a whopping negative 63! That's not positive, it's -63. I cannot remember that I've ever seen it so low. Now it's back "up" to -51. We'll see if this was some strange event or the start of a major bust in his forecast. I'm not at all against him, but I see those negative SOI numbers and have to question where he got "positive" from.

Hey- I'll ask him next week in Orlando- if he lets me....

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:21 am

Daily SOI values are not very important when it comes to ENSO. It's the long term trends that we need to give the most attention to.

#3 Postby **Steve** » Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:40 am

Hey TWW. You're right. It gives lag time/headsup to North American weather patterns/amplification in non-El Nino seasons. But the long term trends are the most important before the active part of the season. Just the same though, I haven't seen it at 60 too often. I wonder if there are US downstream implications for the middle of the month or if it is tied into some phenominon near Austraila (which admittedly, I haven't been studying Aussie weather lately

).

< 2 months

Steve

#4 Postby **Steve** » Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:40 am

Btw, when's you, Rob & Kevin's report coming out? I'm looking forward to it.

S

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:44 pm

Steve wrote:Hey TWW. You're right. It gives lag time/headsup to North American weather patterns/amplification in non-El Nino seasons. But the long term trends are the most important before the active part of the season. Just the same though, I haven't seen it at 60 too often. I wonder if there are US downstream implications for the middle of the month or if it is tied into some phenominon near Austraila (which admittedly, I haven't been studying Aussie weather lately ).

< 2 months

Steve

The SOI has been known to affect US weather a couple weeks down the road. Now if thats what you're looking for, then daily values are fine. :wink:

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:45 pm

Steve wrote:Btw, when's you, Rob & Kevin's report coming out? I'm looking forward to it.

S

Release date is scheduled for May 25, three days before Gray's final release. Should be more extensive than last year's seasonal of course. :lol:

Dr. Gray mentioned positive SOI, but....

Dr. Gray mentioned positive SOI, but....

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