GOM action

[george_r_1961]

Take a look in the GOM..could be a subtropical or even a tropical type system trying to form

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ColdFront77]

I saw this feature, too; specifically on one of the local weather reports here in the Orlando market at
11:15 pm EDT. Something to watch, nonetheless.

At this time it is expected to bring some high-thin cloudiness over the Florida peninsula tomorrow. Shower
and thunderstorm activity presently across southern Texas may effect Florida Thursday and Friday. There
is currently a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain with this late week event.

[King6]

Could sure use the rain down here in South Florida.Hear about the fires in MiamiDade County?

[ColdFront77]

Yes, I have heard about the fires across Miami-Dade county in southern Florida.

There have been some fires in the Melbourne and northeastern Florida areas, too.

Hopefully we will get some "dry season rain" this week; as I mentioned. Then there
are always some chances between now and the start of the wet season in late May.

[Rainband]

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEBRIS FROM MCS
CURRENTLY IN TEXAS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INTO FLORIDA. I
HIGHLY DOUBT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFT FOR ANY SHOWERS...SO HAVE
LEFT POPS OUT.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS A TOUCH BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AS TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PICKED UP BY A SOUTHERN STREAM JET
AND BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. I HELD ON TO CURRENT RUNNING POPS OF 20 PERCENT...AND ALSO
WENT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS. They aren't thinking too much about this right now

[HurricaneGirl]

Yes, I hope the "Blob" comes over this way and it rains big time!

[WidreMann]

Take a look in the GOM..could be a subtropical or even a tropical type system trying to form

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No.

[Lindaloo]

I do not think anything will develop out of this. But, I sure hope those in need of rain (me too) will at least get some of it.

Good eye george.

[MWatkins]

For anything to develop into a tropical system there are a few rules of thumb which almost never fail to ID a system that could develop. I'm going to run through and apply these rules and see what comes of the Gulf system:

1. SST's at 26 degrees Celsius (27+ is preferred). Gulf temps in this area are around 24C at best ---> no development.

2. Less that 15 knots of vertical shear. Latest analysis from the GFS global model depicts 30+ knots of shear all around the area:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... hour=000hr

3. Land based systems will almost never ever develop into a tropical system right away. Even HUGE t-wave induced Mcc's coming off of Africa at the peak of the Atlantic season need time to transition to daytime-heating outflow-based systems to tropical systems which do not rely on surface heating for lift/instability. Which leads to the 3rd rule, Persistence over water. You want to see sustained convection over water for 24 hours or more.

4. Climatology. There is a reason that we don't have long-tracked west moving hurricanes in the Atlantic in June. Global circulation patterns don't change much year over year, so generally, something has to have EVERYTHING go 'right' to buck the climatology trend (see Brazil hurricane for an example). And that isn't happening in the Gulf right now.

So of the 4 indicators (there are more, but I'm just going into these 4) no development is imminent.

For a non-tropical baroclinic/upper low to spin up to a sub-tropical or tropical cyclone it would need some of these factors and a long time over water to develop...so no worries there either.

Hope this helps...

MW

[dixiebreeze]

Hi Mike and all, I think everyone is getting just a bit over-anxious for the season. There should be plenty of action soon enough -- maybe before June 1, matter of fact. The GOM conditions will hopefully drive some needed rain the Florida Peninsula this week.

[ColdFront77]

I am not overly anxious. The Hurricane Season begins June 1st for a reason and even then, June and July are normally slow.

Some years we have May systems, sometimes even one or two by July 10th

[OtherHD]

I am not overly anxious. The Hurricane Season begins June 1st for a reason and even then, June and July are normally slow.

Some years we have May systems, sometimes even one or two by July 10th

I'm pretty sure Dixiebreeze was not referring to you. I didn't see anything overanxious in your posts.

[ColdFront77]

Oh well, thank you Lyle. I didn't mean to allude that I thought Dixiebreeze was referring to me.

I am overaxious to watch and discuss the possible and actual development with you and others, (especially in the S2K Chatroom), as I know you are.

[MWatkins]

Hi Mike and all, I think everyone is getting just a bit over-anxious for the season. There should be plenty of action soon enough -- maybe before June 1, matter of fact. The GOM conditions will hopefully drive some needed rain the Florida Peninsula this week.

Hey Dixie...you got that right. My boys and I drove right the smoke plume from the big everglades fire this weekend...the sun turned bright red and the sky was almost black. We need the rain...hopefully these storms forecast to get here Friday will be wet enough not to touch off more storms.

MW

[chadtm80]

I sure hope we get the rain. We are hurting bad here in central Florida. Fire warnings up everywhere.

[Stormsfury]

I sure hope we get the rain. We are hurting bad here in central Florida. Fire warnings up everywhere.

Same goes for Lower South Carolina ... less than 1" of rain in the last month or so ... and to add insult to injury, humidities readings were as low as 15% today ... ouch! ... (*SF gets shocked yet again*)

SF

[Josephine96]

We could use the rain here too.. It's been bone dry

[Lindaloo]

Burn bans have been issued here.

[Stormsfury]

Burn bans have been issued here.

Same here ... remarkable that the humidity values went down to as low as 15% today ... I got shocked on EVERYTHING... (hmm, number #18, anyone) ... LOL!

[Lindaloo]

LOL Mike!! Add that to your list.

Humidity is down here too.