Very Interesting Setup of Sea Surface Temperatures

[Hyperstorm]

Here's an interesting image of the anomaly of SSTs as of today April 7, 2004:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

There are a few things that I found interesting in this map.

First, you can notice that the majority of the N. Atlantic is inundated with slightly above average SSTs of about 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit, but that's not all. Look at the coast of Africa! Temperatures there are as much 5 degrees above normal!

Second, notice the cool anomaly of SSTs along the US coastline. That's as much as 5 degrees below normal. Oddly, this has been a trend that has continued from last seaason.

Third, please take a look at the equatorial E. Pacific where SSTs are actually as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal! Signs of La Nina approaching soon?

Those are the things I found rather interesting. However, of note is the anomaly of warm temperatures off the coast of Southern Brazil and Argentina where "Hurricane Catarina" developed. Temperatures there are as much as 10 degrees above normal! Impressive! No wonder we had a near Category 2 hurricane develop there.

Will these anomalies have an effect on the upcoming 2004 Hurricane Season? In my opinion, it is too early to say for sure (as always), but it could be signs of some interesting scenarios this season. What is catching my eye at the moment, is the Pacific Ocean. What do you all think?

[Anonymous]

Wow. The anomaly is very obvious around southern South America. As for the Pacific Ocean one would certainly hope that the very dry and warm temps in March in Southern California have no effect on the water temperatures -- they probably indicate more of an extreme fire danger this summer than anything else. The last thing SoCal needs is a tropical storm/hurricane -- although they could use rain. Temps appear only a degree or two above average there anyway and below average off the Northern California coast. The entire maps definitely show a lot of above average spots accross the globe.

[Aslkahuna]

it tends to be the other way around in SoCA with the water temperatures affecting the weather there instead of vice versa. Persistent offshore flow might result in local warming of the water, but the effect would be shallow and quickly revert to normal when the normal onshore flow developed. Large scale SST anomalies are related to coupled atmospheric-oceanic oscillations typically and changes within the ocean currents which feed back into the atmosphere resulting in pattern anomalies.

Steve

[Guest]

SSTs are at the point that when the waters around the Bahamas warm to their normal values{which should begin to happen in the next few weeks or so} the SSTs as a whole will be prime for the season to take off.One inhibiting factor is that the entire Atlantic Basin is blanketed in the SAL{Saharan Air Layer}.SAL dominates the picture right now,though it is only April there still is a long way to go before the basin moistens up to prime conditions.We all know how much are friend SAL can be a pain in the rear sometimes,even in the heart of the season.

Check it out;

[Anonymous]

it tends to be the other way around in SoCA with the water temperatures affecting the weather there instead of vice versa. Persistent offshore flow might result in local warming of the water, but the effect would be shallow and quickly revert to normal when the normal onshore flow developed. Large scale SST anomalies are related to coupled atmospheric-oceanic oscillations typically and changes within the ocean currents which feed back into the atmosphere resulting in pattern anomalies.

Steve

Thanks Steve. That's good to know. SoCA sounds very far removed from any tropical threat then. Hopefully they will get some rain and the fire threat will be removed as well.

[Aslkahuna]

in SoCA will never be removed as fire is a way of life in SoCA and has been for about as many years as the landmass of CA has existed in its current form. It's just the presence of hoards of people living there that makes it a problem. Also, we are rapidly getting out of the rainy season there will soon begin the Summer dry season in CA.

Steve