Landfall prob charts.

[OuterBanker]

At the bottom of this post you will find the link in which Dr. Gray referred to in section 6 (also printed) of his newest abstract. I found it fascinating, and rather disturbing for those of us living on the coast of NC. This study also gives landfall categories for sub regions for 2004 i.e. Brunswick County NC NS 26% (15) H 18% (10.7) IH 6.7% (4.0) Miami - Dade County, Fl. NS 11.5% (6.8) H 8.7% (5.2) IH 5.0% (2.9). Never realized that living in on the coast NC was a higher risk than living in Miami. We still are recovering from Isabel here, I guess the optimistic way of looking at it is there is a 95% chance an intense hurricane won't hit NC.


6 United States Landfalling Hurricane Webpage Application
Over the past year, we have been compiling and synthesizing our landfalling hurricane data and have been developing a webpage application with extensive landfalling probabilities for the Gulf and East Coasts of the United States. In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College, a web application has been created that displays landfall probabilities for eleven regions and 96 subregions of the United States coast extending from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport, Maine. Individual state probabilities are also given. These probabilities are based on the current forecast of NTC activity and on current values of SSTA*.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp

[vbhoutex]

That is very interersting information to have.

Forget looking at the percentages. I looked at the tracks and along the central to W GOM there are two concentrations of landfalls over the the last century. One is over S. Central Louisiana and the other is in the Houston/Galveston area. I never realized there were "clusters" like that. In a way if you want to use that as a predictor it could be a very foreboding thing.
I am not making any predictions based on it, but it does make one wonder(or at least me).

[Guest]

A landfalling hurricane to a specific area all depends on the hurricane in relation to ridges,troughs,etc.All the canes that struck NC in the last few years could have all hit Fla if it was'nt for troughs dipping down in the nick of time & high pressures centered at certain latitudes & longitudes.
Andrew could have hit the Carolinas if the high pressure driving the storm was weaker or if a trough would have come into play,its all relative.

During the 1920's through the 60's many hurricanes made landfall in South Fla including 7 in a 5 year span in the mid to late 40's{5 of those majors},apparently the steering currents were such that allowed that to happen.Steering currents along the east coast of the U.S. as of late have made the Carolinas a prime target,that will change in the coming years if not sooner.

[vbhoutex]

A landfalling hurricane to a specific area all depends on the hurricane in relation to ridges,troughs,etc.All the canes that struck NC in the last few years could have all hit Fla if it was'nt for troughs dipping down in the nick of time & high pressures centered at certain latitudes & longitudes.
Andrew could have hit the Carolinas if the high pressure driving the storm was weaker or if a trough would have come into play,its all relative.

During the 1920's through the 60's many hurricanes made landfall in South Fla including 7 in a 5 year span in the mid to late 40's{5 of those majors},apparently the steering currents were such that allowed that to happen.Steering currents along the east coast of the U.S. as of late have made the Carolinas a prime target,that will change in the coming years if not sooner.

Why do you think that the steering currents will change soon?

[WidreMann]

A landfalling hurricane to a specific area all depends on the hurricane in relation to ridges,troughs,etc.All the canes that struck NC in the last few years could have all hit Fla if it was'nt for troughs dipping down in the nick of time & high pressures centered at certain latitudes & longitudes.
Andrew could have hit the Carolinas if the high pressure driving the storm was weaker or if a trough would have come into play,its all relative.

During the 1920's through the 60's many hurricanes made landfall in South Fla including 7 in a 5 year span in the mid to late 40's{5 of those majors},apparently the steering currents were such that allowed that to happen.Steering currents along the east coast of the U.S. as of late have made the Carolinas a prime target,that will change in the coming years if not sooner.

Why do you think that the steering currents will change soon?

The only constant in life is change. Basically, he's going on a sort of modified law of averages type thing. Hurricanes have been hitting North Carolina with alarming frequency over the last decade. So it is pretty much time for there to be a change.

[Stephanie]

Thank you for sharing that Outerbanks!

My area (NJ) is LONG overdue for a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane. Since 1900, we only had 4, 2 in the 1900's and 2 in 1930's.

[chadtm80]

Thanks for sharing! Thats a link Ill save..

My area

County Name Information
County VOLUSIA
Region_Name Region 7
Region_2000_Population 4454373
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 574
Named Storms (1900-1999) 16
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 5
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 0
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 27% (16%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 8% (5%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) >0% (>0%)
IH Return Period >100
Subregion 7c
Subregion_2000_Population 443343
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 72
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 3.4% (2.0%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 1.1% (0.6%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) >0.0% (>0.0%)

[Guest]

Well WidreMan summed it up for me nicely.

My guess is as good as all of you guys out here who seem to know your weather very well,who knows maybe things will stay the same & the Carolinas will keep getting the brunt of the hurricane activity along the east coast..Maybe the pattern will change & South Fla will become a target once again like it was during periods last century.My point being that between 1930 & 1966 South Fla was struck by 17 hurricanes 12 of those majors.In the 37 years that have followed South Fla has been hit by 4 hurricanes,1 of them being the almighty Andrew,1 of those being Floyd 87 which was pathetic at best.Something between 1930 & 66 made a heck of alot of hurricanes hit this area,seemingly from all directions..Will that type of situation or pattern happen again???Its possible,I've heard some well respected names in hurricane forecasting say that we have already begun the cycle where we will see it look alot like it did during the 30's through the 60's.I know that means in terms of more favorable for hurricanes.But maybe also the Bermuda High becomes a little stronger keeping canes on a more Wwrd course.Maybe the troughs arrive a day too late to pick the cane up like it has done many times in the past,keeping it on a more Wwrd course.Maybe the trough does arrive on time,but the cane is in the Caribbean & the trough steers it towards South Fla.All these scenarios have happened many times in the past..17 hurricanes in 36 years is proof of that..Not to mention the 4 hurricanes we had in the 20's ,1 of them being the infamous 26 hurricane that almost wiped Miami off the map.

I'll be ready,as should every one on the coast of the GOM & east coast because if we are in that active cycle again its going to be a rough next decade or 2.

BTW it was a great link provided by Outerbanker,great info.

[MWatkins]

Great link, good stuff.

If we should ever experience a replay of the 40's and 50's here in South Florida...say goodbye to property values and the housing market.

Here's to hoping that the 40's/50's were the anomaly and the last 40 years are the norm.

MW

[MWatkins]

This study also gives landfall categories for sub regions for 2004 i.e. Brunswick County NC NS 26% (15) H 18% (10.7) IH 6.7% (4.0) Miami - Dade County, Fl. NS 11.5% (6.8) H 8.7% (5.2) IH 5.0% (2.9). Never realized that living in on the coast NC was a higher risk than living in Miami.

Once again thanks for the link, I'm going to find a home for it on my webpage...

Looking a little closer at the data you posted yesterday, it looks like the percentages are higher in Brunswick county vs. Dade not as a function of storm frequency directly, but instead are related to coastline size.

Miami-Dade County, FL is a member of Sub-Region 6b in this study, and has a coastal length of 89km. Brunswick County, on the other hand has a costal length of 266km, or about 198% larger than Miami-Dade. If you compare the total regional probs, which are of more comparable land areas:

483km Total Costal Area, Region 6 (Southeast FL)

2004 Region Prob. (NS) 63% (37%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 47% (28%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) 27% (16%)

673km Total Costal Area, Region 8, (Eastern North Carolina)
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 66% (39%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 46% (27%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) 17% (10%)

The numbers are virtually identical in terms of named storms and hurricanes, but significantly greater in Region 6 in terms of Intense Hurricanes.

Once you adjust for land area differences the probabilities for any given point in Miami-Dade vs. any given point in NC are higher in all categories. Lower latitude, warmer surrounding temps, and the fact that hurricane strikes can come from the Atlantic (from the east) or the Caribbean (from the southwest) all account for these differences.

MW

[vbhoutex]

A landfalling hurricane to a specific area all depends on the hurricane in relation to ridges,troughs,etc.All the canes that struck NC in the last few years could have all hit Fla if it was'nt for troughs dipping down in the nick of time & high pressures centered at certain latitudes & longitudes.
Andrew could have hit the Carolinas if the high pressure driving the storm was weaker or if a trough would have come into play,its all relative.

During the 1920's through the 60's many hurricanes made landfall in South Fla including 7 in a 5 year span in the mid to late 40's{5 of those majors},apparently the steering currents were such that allowed that to happen.Steering currents along the east coast of the U.S. as of late have made the Carolinas a prime target,that will change in the coming years if not sooner.

Very well stated Widreman!!! I was wondering if he had anything besides that to back up his thoughts. I can't disagree with what was said at all, just looking for "concrete" evidence, if that is even possible in this case. I would presume the closest we will get to that(concrete) in this case is Climatology and the fact there is an almost obvious change back towards the patterns of the 30's to the 60's.
Why do you think that the steering currents will change soon?

The only constant in life is change. Basically, he's going on a sort of modified law of averages type thing. Hurricanes have been hitting North Carolina with alarming frequency over the last decade. So it is pretty much time for there to be a change.

[OuterBanker]

Trakker,
I agree with you. I started tracking hurricanes after Donna (I was 9, let's not do the math), and I remember how Fl and the Gulf were pummeled in the sixties. The 90's were especially bad for NC and I had thought that the 2000's were the start of the reversal of pattern. We had no watches or warnings posted from 2000 through 2002 which were the most profitable years ever allowing for some economic recovery from
the mid 90's onslaught. Then 2003 brought Isabel, oh well. At some time there is no doubt that Fl and the Gulf will be threatened by numerous major hurricanes. My worry is that Fl has gone an extraordinarily long time withount a major landfall and I'm sure public apathy is at an all time high there. I afraid that can lead to major problems when one does strike.

[Guest]

OuterBanker;

I was 9 too when I started tracking canes.David was the 1 that got me hooked,though it did not make landfall here I remember helping my dad put up plywood & tape(LOL)on the windows & seeing the rest of the neigborhood preparing too.I didn't fully grasp what was happening but I knew something awesome was going down.We just got brushed by it but there were some pretty strong wind gusts.

Anyway I got all wrapped up in the whole hurricane history down here & like I said,I'm ready for that onslaught if it was to happen based on the fact that it has happened before.Thats the only concrete evidence I have,the past.It may or may not happen like that ,mother nature does what she wants.All that being said,I am aware of the fact that your area has been experiencing what South Fla & GOM states went through parts of last century,I think you guys need a long break,you have been pelted enough times.