NHC calls C. Atlantic mess "suspicious"........

[dixiebreeze]

in its 2:05 discussion update:

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A SUSPICIOUS BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LOCATED 500-100 NM NE OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT NO SIGNIFICANTLY MODERATE OR STRONG
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH BUT THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
RECEIVING A KICK START FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC ALONG NOW NEAR 60W.
SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GO GUNG-HO IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 24N52W LATER
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THEY ALSO HINT THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE WARM-CORED AS HIGHER THETA-E VALUES PINCH OFF FROM
THE WARM AIR MASS TO THE S. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OVERDONE
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS BEING BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...BUT THE RECENT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME FORM OF DEVELOPMENT.
FARTHER S...MOISTURE DECREASES DRASTICALLY HEADING TOWARDS THE
TROPICS...AS FAR S AS 7N...WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
LOCATED UP TO 600/700 NM E OF TRINIDAD.

[dixiebreeze]

Another view of central atlantic:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[WXBUFFJIM]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

See what that looks like. Definitely some showers and storms in there. Any development would be very slow at best. But we had an April storm last year. Wonder if this is a trend.

Jim

[MWatkins]

The GFS...CMC and to a lesser extent NOGAPS go a little bananas with this system and all spin up a tight low-level vortex in the next 30 hours and it persists in the models for a considerable time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048l.gif

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... hour=048hr

However...it looks like it will rotate/embed within a larger barolinic envelope...as it is forecast to execute a broad loop around a developing upper low in the area...here's the 300MB forecast from the 12Z GFS...cyclonic flow aloft in 60 hours:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... hour=060hr

But a tighter dot in the 500MB fields embedded within:

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... hour=060hr

In any event that 950MB vort max has been showing up in the model for a couple of days now...but even if a surface trough/low does kick out it will likely not be tropical.

But it will be interesting to watch. It looked more baroclinic yesterday in the model than it does today.

MW

[Rainband]

Sign of things to come

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the links, Mike, very interesting. I'll be watching.

[wxman57]

The GFS indicates a warm core low developing out there:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/avn ... 12/11.html

The Canadian also shows warm-core development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/12.html

Rumors are going around the research group that there may be a subtropical/tropical development near 25N/50W in the next few days.

After all, it IS April now.

[cycloneye]

Ummm interesting those rumors in that office.

[dixiebreeze]

The GFS indicates a warm core low developing out there:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/avn ... 12/11.html

The Canadian also shows warm-core development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/12.html

Rumors are going around the research group that there may be a subtropical/tropical development near 25N/50W in the next few days.

After all, it IS April now.

Worth repeating Whoo Hooo

[Rainband]

Cool. thanks for the info Chris

[MWatkins]

The GFS indicates a warm core low developing out there:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/avn ... 12/11.html

The Canadian also shows warm-core development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/12.html

Rumors are going around the research group that there may be a subtropical/tropical development near 25N/50W in the next few days.

After all, it IS April now.

The vertical structure...in terms of pressure in the model suggests that if the GFS/CMC verify it will be a hybrid with potential warm-core characteristics mixed in. Maybe a smaller mid/low layer sheared system within a larger developing upper low?

One has to wonder the models aren't contaminated by convective feedback but I guess we'll see. After last year another early-season...even subtropical cyclone...would be remarkable.

Did you corner anyone on the Isabel conspiricy?

MW

[Josephine96]

I like the line about the NHC going "Gung HO" lmao.. That is priceless. Who wrote it? lol

[WEATHER53]

Wonder how this might correlate to ever increasing examination of decresing of salinity of atlantic ocean waters thus altering of gulf stream and other possible resultant weather patterns heretofore non existent.

[MWatkins]

The 0Z GFS hasn't backed off yet with a fairly strong low-level system hanging around in 3 days:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048l.gif

The low is still reflecting in the mid levels:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

And with no anticyclonic flow aloft:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Looks like a hybrid system. If things continue along this trend...it could still get a name.

MW

[Josephine96]

Things could get kinda interesting if this baby gets a name huh.. Us in Florida need rain.. We are dry and it's been close to 4 weeks since we've had our last drop of rain I believe

[Derek Ortt]

Not one model has this keeping its identity as it moves toward the USA. In addition, not one model has this moving toward Florida

[george_r_1961]

Its looking more cold core today

[ColdFront77]

Things could get kinda interesting if this baby gets a name huh.. Us in Florida need rain.. We are dry and it's been close to 4 weeks since we've had our last drop of rain I believe

A cold front is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms across central Florida, tomorrow (Sunday) night, Monday and Tuesday.

Not one model has this keeping its identity as it moves toward the USA. In addition, not one model has this moving toward Florida

I am not surprised not one model has the feature in the Atlantic moving toward Florida.

[Lindaloo]

A model that I saw last night has this system moving across Florida. Has something changed?

[ChaserUK]

Interesting indeed - does anyone think we could have another Ana type storm then from this development or does the possibly that this is a cold store system mess that idea up.