Dr Gray on Friday from NHC

[Vortex]

Scary stuff...The article is in today's paper in the Sunsentinel.

The U.S. coastline can expect "hellacious" damage from major hurricanes in the near future, said noted hurricane prognosticator Bill Gray on Friday, renewing his warning that the Atlantic basin has entered an era of intense hurricane activity.

He said Florida, in particular, might be due considering it has seen only one major hurricane in the past 38 years -- Andrew in 1992. Meanwhile, 32 major hurricanes have formed since 1995.

To raise awareness, as of June 1, Gray plans to provide a detailed breakdown of the probability that 96 coastal counties, from Texas to Maine, will be hit by a tropical storm, a hurricane or a major hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph.

Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are among those counties.

The information will be provided on a Web site, http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.

"I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky he's been, and how much trouble is coming," Gray said at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando on Friday. "This just ain't going to go on. We're going to see more landfalling storms."

Chris Landsea, a research meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said because there are more people living on the coast and they have more "stuff" such as televisions, stereos and video equipment, a major hurricane would cause enormous damage in a populated area.

"Based on the evidence I've seen, I think that's not just likely; I think it's going to happen," he said. "It's going to mean destruction like we've never seen before."

For years, Gray has provided the odds of a hurricane landfall in major regions. For instance, this year he predicts a 71 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coast and an 80 percent chance one will hit Florida and the East Coast.

The reason for the new intensity: A long-range warm cycle of the Atlantic surface, lower barometric pressure, less stability in the atmosphere and less wind shear.

Gray has come under criticism by some members of the meteorological community for providing too many specific numbers in his seasonal forecasts. For instance, for the upcoming season that starts June 1, he predicts 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, or what would be an active season. The federal government provides a general range of the number of storms it expects and will release its seasonal forecast in May.

Gray said his calculations are justified based on historical information and major climatic indicators, such as surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the degree of wind shear.

[Rainband]

Rutt Ro.