South FLorida/Louisiana hit

[cajungal]

Does anyone think we may see a South Florida/Louisiana hit for the 2004 season? We have not seen that happen since Andrew hit in 1992. I know that South Florida seems to be in the high risk zone this year. And several times a hurricane has hit South Florida and hit us here in southeast Louisiana next. It did for Betsy in 1965 and for Andrew in 1992. And I think for several other hurricanes; too. What does everyone think?

[bsuwx]

I'm moving to New Orleans in the middle of may. Maybe I'll experience my first tropical cyclone! (With the exception of the remnants of Fran, which made it all the way here to Eastern Indiana...)

[Guest]

That can happen,its happened many times in the past as you stated with Betsy & Andrew & I'm sure a few other canes which don't come to mind right now.

The Florida peninsula is merely a speed bump for hurricanes.From Lake Okeechobee north there is a bit more terrain to cross which does weaken a hurricane more than the South Fla part.That said,no matter what part of the Fla peninsula gets hit the storm will most often reintensify & sometimes affect Louisianna as seen in the past.

[Lindaloo]

I don't think New Orleans has had a direct hit since Betsy in 1965. I for one hope that city is spared every year from a major hurricane.

[Storm Man]

We Are Overdue!Watch Out For The End Of July?

[SacrydDreamz]

I'm moving to New Orleans in the middle of may. Maybe I'll experience my first tropical cyclone! (With the exception of the remnants of Fran, which made it all the way here to Eastern Indiana...)

Remnants don't count... lol

[PTrackerLA]

I hope we don't have to deal with any storms this year, but after Lili's dramatic weakening in 2002 which spared us from a disaster I think our luck will run out soon.

[vacanechaser]

Does anyone think we may see a South Florida/Louisiana hit for the 2004 season? We have not seen that happen since Andrew hit in 1992. I know that South Florida seems to be in the high risk zone this year. And several times a hurricane has hit South Florida and hit us here in southeast Louisiana next. It did for Betsy in 1965 and for Andrew in 1992. And I think for several other hurricanes; too. What does everyone think?

well, like hurricanetrack posted earlier, you can see the GFS model hinting at a strong Bermuda high already in the next few days... I have been thinking that this year could see the Bermuda high stronger than the past few years and this would allow for the storms to track to the west or so with little or no recurvature... That is not a forecast, but just a feeling that something is going to be knocking on the door down there this season... Bill Gray seemed to concentrate on Florida a bit during his forecast overview at the conference this past week.. Not to say he is saying Florida, but it just seemed to fall into place with the feeling I have had since his update in December..

[Rainband]

We haven't had a storm here since..... Easy I think. The closest was Elena, we are definately overdue. I am not saying that increases our chances by any means, the key is to be ready if you live anywhere along the coast. That said. I cannot wait till June 1

[wxman57]

I don't think New Orleans has had a direct hit since Betsy in 1965. I for one hope that city is spared every year from a major hurricane.

I wouldn't call Betsy in '65 a direct hit on New Orleans. It moved inland due south of the city, but moved NW passing between Baton Rouge and Lafayette. The center was quite a distance from New Orleans. It was still a pretty good hit for New Orleans, though not a direct hit.

[Steve]

>>I don't think New Orleans has had a direct hit since Betsy in 1965. I for one hope that city is spared every year from a major hurricane.

We've had lots of brushes with fun but nothing severe. There was Bill last year, Lili and Isidore in '02, Florence in 88 (pretty much a direct hit), Juan in 85, Andrew in '92, Georges and Frances in '98... Some of those storms were far away, others were close in.

>>I wouldn't call Betsy in '65 a direct hit on New Orleans. It moved inland due south of the city, but moved NW passing between Baton Rouge and Lafayette. The center was quite a distance from New Orleans. It was still a pretty good hit for New Orleans, though not a direct hit.

That's true '57, and a lot of locals don't even know that. The reason why it's the one storm that gets a lot of play is because it was the last one where Cat 3 conditions were felt in the City. There was severe flooding, a few dozen people killed, and gusts up to 135 (I'm not sure what the highest gust was measured in New Orleans, but it was in the III range).

>>I'm moving to New Orleans in the middle of may. Maybe I'll experience my first tropical cyclone! (With the exception of the remnants of Fran, which made it all the way here to Eastern Indiana...)

Drop me a PM. We'll have to hook up when you get here.
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A big "yo" to everyone else. 6 more weeks...

Steve

[cajungal]

The eye of Betsy actually moved over Grand Isle, Louisiana. They had gusts up to 160 mph. Then, the eye went straight up Bayou Lafourche over the towns of Golden Meadow, Galliano, Cut Off, Larose, Lockport, Raceland and Thibodaux.
My mom was living in Thibodaux with her family and my dad was living in Cut Off with his family at the time. They were both teenagers back then and did not meet; yet. My dad got winds in the 150 mph range and my mom got winds in the 125 mph range. I seen pictures of the damage and it was pretty severe all over the Bayou Lafourche region. The main damage in New Orleans was not from wind but from severe flooding.

I been through Andrew when I was 16. That was first and only real experience with a hurricane. The eye passed 25 miles to the west of me and we got winds in the 100 mph. It was pretty scary, but I never been in the eye of a storm like my mom and dad. Betsy happened in 1965 and that was 11 years before I was born. So, our luck will run out someday soon.

[Lindaloo]

I don't think New Orleans has had a direct hit since Betsy in 1965. I for one hope that city is spared every year from a major hurricane.

I wouldn't call Betsy in '65 a direct hit on New Orleans. It moved inland due south of the city, but moved NW passing between Baton Rouge and Lafayette. The center was quite a distance from New Orleans. It was still a pretty good hit for New Orleans, though not a direct hit.

Thanks for the clarification.

And you are right Steve. It is what I have always been told because I was not even born yet. lol.

[Rainband]

>>I don't think New Orleans has had a direct hit since Betsy in 1965. I for one hope that city is spared every year from a major hurricane.

We've had lots of brushes with fun but nothing severe. There was Bill last year, Lili and Isidore in '02, Florence in 88 (pretty much a direct hit), Juan in 85, Andrew in '92, Georges and Frances in '98... Some of those storms were far away, others were close in.

>>I wouldn't call Betsy in '65 a direct hit on New Orleans. It moved inland due south of the city, but moved NW passing between Baton Rouge and Lafayette. The center was quite a distance from New Orleans. It was still a pretty good hit for New Orleans, though not a direct hit.

That's true '57, and a lot of locals don't even know that. The reason why it's the one storm that gets a lot of play is because it was the last one where Cat 3 conditions were felt in the City. There was severe flooding, a few dozen people killed, and gusts up to 135 (I'm not sure what the highest gust was measured in New Orleans, but it was in the III range).

>>I'm moving to New Orleans in the middle of may. Maybe I'll experience my first tropical cyclone! (With the exception of the remnants of Fran, which made it all the way here to Eastern Indiana...)

Drop me a PM. We'll have to hook up when you get here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
A big "yo" to everyone else. 6 more weeks...

Steve

welcome back steve