***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC035-053-150000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
459 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 459 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
I65 AND AL 41 BY 505 PM CST
RANGE...APPLETON BY 510 PM CST
LENOX BY 515 PM CST
I65 AND CR 6 BY 520 PM CST

STRONG DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC119-142345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
506 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 505 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR CUBA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...EMELLE...
LIVINGSTON AND YORK.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...MOVE INSIDE...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC031-142345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ISSUED BY NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 501 PM CST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL OVER ENTERPRISE MUNI A/P...OR ABOUT 4
MILES WEST OF ENTERPRISE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ENTERPRISE AT 500 PM CST...
CLINTONVILLE AT 505 PM CST AND
TABERNACLE AT 515 PM CST.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE. NICKEL SIZED
HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MSC075-150015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 513 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL...
BE NEAR MARION AT 520 PM CST
BE NEAR TOOMSUBA AT 535 PM CST
BE NEAR MERIDIAN STATION AT 540 PM CST

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MSC067-142355-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 555 PM CST

* AT 511 PM CST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL OVER SANDERSVILLE...OR ABOUT
10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAUREL...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC023-150000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 528 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER ROCK SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RIDERWOOD...PUSHMATAHA BY 535 PM CST
LISMAN...BUTLER BY 540 PM CST
CROMWELL BY 550 PM CST
JACHIN BY 555 PM CST

STRONG DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC041-150000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
523 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 523 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER BRANTLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GLENWOOD BY 535 PM CST
LUVERNE...RUTLEDGE BY 540 PM CST
PATSBURG...LIVE OAK BY 550 PM CST
PETREY BY 555 PM CST

STRONG DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC123-150000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
518 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 512 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF DADEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALEXANDER
CITY...DAVISTON...GOLDVILLE...JACKSONS' GAP AND NEW SITE.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...MOVE INSIDE...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2237 60 PARADISE SANDERS MT 4738 11481 *** 1 INJ *** WIND GUST BLEW TREES ONTO POWER LINES INJURING A MAN. (MSO)
2248 61 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 ALERT WEATHER STATION IN POLSON RECORDED SOUTH WIND 30 MPH GUSTING 61 MPH. (MSO)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

2320 60 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 IN POLSON, OLD MILL PLACE BUILDING FACING BLOWN OFF ONTO CAR. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM RONAN TO FINLEY POINT. (MSO)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2315 75 CUBA SUMTER AL 3243 8838 DIME SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM CUBA FIRE AND RESCUE. (BHM)
2345 175 JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MSC035-150055-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 PM CST FRI MAR 14 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 655 PM CST
FOR FORREST COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...

AT 635 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTY. ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKLYN. ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAMP SHELBY...OR ABOUT
8 MILES SOUTH OF HATTIESBURG. BOTH THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST
AROUND 10 MILES AN HOUR.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN CAMP SHELBY AND
BROOKLYN THROUGH 655 PM.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2300 100 4 N WHYNOT LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8850 REPORTED BY LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2310 75 SANDERSVILLE JONES MS 3178 8903 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2315 75 CUBA SUMTER AL 3243 8838 DIME SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM CUBA FIRE AND RESCUE. (BHM)
2325 100 2 SE MERIDIAN LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8868 GROUND COVERED WITH NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY MERIDIAN DISPATCH. (JAN)
2345 175 JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)
0003 100 ALEXANDER CITY TALLAPOOSA AL 3295 8596 QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT FROM MEDIA. (BHM)
0010 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 REPORTED BY THE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (BHM)
0015 75 TALLAPOOSA COUNTY TALLAPOOSA AL 3280 8585 REPORTED BY TALLAPOOSA COUNTY EMA. (BHM)
0020 100 BASINGER OKEECHOBEE FL 2738 8103 REPORTED BY OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
0025 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0030 88 AUBURN LEE AL 3261 8546 NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN SOUTHWEST PART OF CITY. REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO. (BHM)
0048 75 MILLERVILLE CLAY AL 3318 8593 REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0127 100 ST CLOUD OSCEOLA FL 2825 8128 REPORTED BY FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL ON FLORIDA TURNPIKE (MLB)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2237 60 PARADISE SANDERS MT 4738 11481 *** 1 INJ *** WIND GUST BLEW TREES ONTO POWER LINES INJURING A MAN. (MSO)
2248 61 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 ALERT WEATHER STATION IN POLSON RECORDED SOUTH WIND 30 MPH GUSTING 61 MPH. (MSO)
2300 60 DIXON SANDERS MT 4731 11431 ROOF BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME AND HIT OLD DIXON STORE AND BLEW DOWN POWER LINES. (MSO)
2300 60 10 W POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11441 SMALL BARN BLOWN OVER IN IRVINE FLATS. (MSO)
2320 60 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 IN POLSON, OLD MILL PLACE BUILDING FACING BLOWN OFF ONTO CAR. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM RONAN TO FINLEY POINT. (MSO)
2335 60 BIGFORK FLATHEAD MT 4806 11406 TREE BLOWN DOWN 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER. FENCE DAMAGED. (MSO)
2345 UNK JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 ROOF DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
Fields marked UNK are unknown

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2240 75 SEBRING HIGHLANDS FL 2749 8144 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (TBW)
2300 100 4 N WHYNOT LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8850 REPORTED BY LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2310 75 SANDERSVILLE JONES MS 3178 8903 REPORTED BY JONES COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2315 75 CUBA SUMTER AL 3243 8838 DIME SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM CUBA FIRE AND RESCUE. (BHM)
2325 100 2 SE MERIDIAN LAUDERDALE MS 3234 8868 GROUND COVERED WITH NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. REPORTED BY MERIDIAN DISPATCH. (JAN)
2337 75 STEVENS COUNTY STEVENS WA 4848 11786 (OTX)
2345 175 JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERIFF. (BHM)
0003 100 ALEXANDER CITY TALLAPOOSA AL 3295 8596 QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. REPORT FROM MEDIA. (BHM)
0010 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 REPORTED BY THE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (BHM)
0015 75 TALLAPOOSA COUNTY TALLAPOOSA AL 3280 8585 REPORTED BY TALLAPOOSA COUNTY EMA. (BHM)
0020 100 BASINGER OKEECHOBEE FL 2738 8103 REPORTED BY OKEECHOBEE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (MLB)
0025 175 PITTSVIEW RUSSELL AL 3218 8516 GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0030 88 AUBURN LEE AL 3261 8546 NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN SOUTHWEST PART OF CITY. REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO. (BHM)
0048 75 MILLERVILLE CLAY AL 3318 8593 REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0105 75 DEMOPOLIS MARENGO AL 3251 8783 REPORTED BY DEMOPOLIS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. (BHM)
0127 100 ST CLOUD OSCEOLA FL 2825 8128 REPORTED BY FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL ON FLORIDA TURNPIKE (MLB)
0141 100 CARLSBAD EDDY NM 3241 10423 HAIL RANGING FROM HALF INCH TO QUARTER SIZED FELL FROM 641 TO 647 MST. RPTD BY STORM SPOTTER. (MAF)
0205 75 ST CLOUD OSCEOLA FL 2825 8128 TREE TOP DAMAGE, CARPORT DAMAGE. DEER RUN NEAR CANOE CREEK ROAD. REPORTED BY OSCEOLA HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (MLB)
0229 75 4 W LOCO HILLS EDDY NM 3281 10406 RPDT BY VOL FD COVERING GROUND ON HWY 82. (MAF)
0232 100 ORLANDO ORANGE FL 2854 8136 ON NARCOOSSEE RD 4 MILES SE OF ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER. (MLB)
0252 75 PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3246 8648 PUBLIC REPORT. (BHM)
0310 75 ORLANDO ORANGE FL 2854 8136 SR 417 AND EAST/WEST EXPRESSWAY IN METRO ORLANDO REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE (MLB)
0320 100 SEMINOLE COUNTY SEMINOLE FL 2873 8121 JUST NORTH OF GOLDENROD. REPORTED BY SEMINOLE COUNTY FIRE DEPARTMENT. (MLB)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2237 60 PARADISE SANDERS MT 4738 11481 *** 1 INJ *** WIND GUST BLEW TREES ONTO POWER LINES INJURING A MAN. (MSO)
2248 61 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 ALERT WEATHER STATION IN POLSON RECORDED SOUTH WIND 30 MPH GUSTING 61 MPH. (MSO)
2300 60 DIXON SANDERS MT 4731 11431 ROOF BLOWN OFF MOBILE HOME AND HIT OLD DIXON STORE AND BLEW DOWN POWER LINES. (MSO)
2300 60 10 W POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11441 SMALL BARN BLOWN OVER IN IRVINE FLATS. (MSO)
2320 60 POLSON LAKE MT 4768 11416 IN POLSON, OLD MILL PLACE BUILDING FACING BLOWN OFF ONTO CAR. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN FROM RONAN TO FINLEY POINT. (MSO)
2335 60 BIGFORK FLATHEAD MT 4806 11406 TREE BLOWN DOWN 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER. FENCE DAMAGED. (MSO)
2345 UNK JACKSONS GAP TALLAPOOSA AL 3288 8580 ROOF DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME. REPORT FROM EMA. (BHM)
0155 60 ORTONA GLADES FL 2681 8131 (MIA)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE PNS 25 SSW SEM 35 NE MGM 40 ESE CSG 25 SSW AYS 35 NNW DAB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW P07 30 NNW MAF 20 SSW AMA 15 ESE LBL 45 W P28 20 NW END
40 ENE CSM 40 SW SPS 20 S BWD 40 NNW SAT 20 SE HDO 60 SE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE BFL 40 W BFL 25 SSW SCK 50 E UKI 55 SSE RBL 65 N SAC
50 SSW TVL 30 NE FAT 65 ESE FAT 10 NE BFL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD
40 W ALI 25 E CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW UIL
50 ENE SEA 25 W PUW 60 WNW 27U PIH 30 ESE U24 15 SSW IGM 20 E CZZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW PNS
10 SSE CBM 10 WSW MSL 45 E BNA 25 N TYS 30 ENE AVL 25 SW SOP
25 SSE OAJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SW P07 40 ENE CVS
40 NNW LBL GRI 10 ESE SUX 35 S FOD 10 N P35 35 W CNU 40 N MWL
40 SSE SEP 20 NE AUS 45 W HOU 40 SW GLS.



...CA...

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH CA TODAY. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN POST FRONTAL
REGION OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS AS COLD AIR
ALOFT MOVES INLAND WHERE SURFACE HEATING IN DRY SLOT AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE VALLEYS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES (SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS) WILL ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER THROUGH...AND TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKED TO SLY OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INCLUDING STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED IN POST
FRONTAL REGION.


...WRN TX THROUGH WRN OK...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM AZ INTO NRN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY.
DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S RETURN NWD THROUGH THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF
W TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN OK. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AS RETURNING MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD UNDERNEATH PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES. CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES EWD THROUGH W TX/WRN
OK. VERTICAL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
RATHER WEAK...SO MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT MODE WITH
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.


...DEEP S TX...

STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EWD INTO DEEP S TX LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS OVER DEEP S TX THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER JET ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM VORT MAX APPROACHES THE AREA.

...SERN U.S....

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE
HEATING APPEARS TO BE IN DRY SLOT REGION FROM SERN AL...SRN GA INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MID LEVEL JET ON
SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WITH PROFILES BECOMING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE
HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FARTHER S OVER THE FL PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES. HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW SEP 45 SSW ABI 50 ENE BGS 65 NNE AMA 30 WNW GCK 30 SSW MCK
45 NE HLC 40 SE RSL 35 NW SEP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CLM 30 NE DLS
45 ENE BKE 10 ENE BZN 30 E WRL 40 S LAR 25 WSW PUB 55 NE 4CR
65 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 25 N DRT
35 SSE LBB 35 WNW IML 30 WSW RAP 65 N PHP 20 SSE HON 35 ESE MKT
20 WNW GRB 20 W MKG 15 E CGX 25 ENE BRL 45 NE SZL 30 NE JLN
35 SSW HRO 30 SE GLH 55 ESE MEI CSG 15 SE CSV 10 SW 5I3 20 ESE SBY.


UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO CHANGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BECOMING BROADER AND
ESTABLISHING STRONG WLY FLOW ALONG THE U.S. MEXICAN BORDER.
APPEARS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
LIFT ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX AND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE PERIOD...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...WRN KS INTO NWRN TX...
THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
SURFACE DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED SUNDAY WITH
SHARP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM FAR WRN KS INTO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE/WRN TX BY THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROVIDE MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRY LINE BY LATE
IN THE DAY...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SUBSIDENCE
IN WAKE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST CAP OVER THE WARM SECTOR. REGARDLESS...
EXPECT CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL CO-EXIST FROM WRN KS
INTO NWRN TX TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE DRY
LINE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EWD
DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AS CAP BUILDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT FORECAST TO SUPPORT MORE
THAN LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS IA/NEB SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY
NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD. ETAKF IS AGGRESSIVE IN ITS
CONVECTIVE FORECAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
KS...WITH ETA AND AVN SUGGESTING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. IN
ADDITION...QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE NEAR THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL OPT TO ONLY INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.

VALID 171200-181200

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE ERN PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS STATES.


ETA AND GFS INDICATE THE STRONG WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
EWD AND BEGIN CLOSING-OFF OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. AROUND
THIS DEVELOPING CIRCULATION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EJECT NEWD AND
THEN MORE NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEXICO. AS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFIES...MID/UPPER LEVEL WSWLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE SLY INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. NET RESULT WILL
BE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM CENTRAL TX INTO KS DURING THE
PERIOD.

UNDER THIS INCREASED DIFFLUENT FLOW...WELL DEFINED DRY LINE WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER ERN
OK/NERN TX AND SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE
/ESPECIALLY IF SLOWER ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES/ FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN
TX AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES AS STORMS DEVELOP ENEWD OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
THIS REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO FL AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD
WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
REGION.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150944
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 161200-171200


...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE DEEPENING. STRONG MID LEVEL PRESSURE FALLS
WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WRN
KS INTO WRN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION WILL
SEE LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE RH READINGS.

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM...WRN
TX...THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR SERN CO...

PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MINIMUM RH READINGS NEAR 15
PERCENT

STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NERN CO WILL AID IN AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS FCST TO MOVE
EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD INTO SWRN TX. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE...SSWLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE ARE TWO AREAS WHERE THE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE STRONGEST. ONE IS OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. OVER THIS AREA...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
AREA AND AID IN SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A MORE WLY DIRECTION AFTER
16/00Z. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX AFTER 16/06Z. DESPITE MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL
AID IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE SECOND AREA WHERE SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IS NERN NM/NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO
SERN CO. HERE....A STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO RAPID PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN CO.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVG FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE
ALREADY DRY FUELS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151738Z - 151945Z

MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS DEEP S TX FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE NEWD OUT
OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED OVER
CAMERON COUNTY MOVING 220-230/10 KTS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWP DATA DEPICT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
--IE 20-30 KTS ABOVE 4 KM. THE RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
--7.5-8 C/KM-- IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGEST
THAT THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD.. 03/15/2003


ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

[wx247]

**UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK**

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SJT
ABI CDS CSM FSI FTW ACT AUS SAT HDO 45 WSW JCT SJT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUB
YKN FOD DSM BIE HSI BUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE P07 BGS LBL
GLD BFF CYS PUB 35 SE RTN 70 SSW GDP ...CONT... 10 SW YUM BLH
40 WSW DRA BIH SVE 4BK ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3HT GDV AXN 55 NNE MSP
10 SSE CMX ...CONT... 65 N MTC LAN MLI P35 OJC FSM PRX TYR SHV
30 NW JAN ABY 35 S CAE 25 NNW SOP 45 NNE RWI 25 NE ECG.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AS INTENSE
ZONAL PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO MIGRATE INLAND/EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM
...GENERALLY WEAK/DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL...WITH
SEVERAL DISTINCT BELTS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW AND EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES. ONE OF THESE STREAMS WILL PERSIST IN BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...WHILE ANOTHER CURVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC JET...LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST RAPID
DEEPENING COMMENCING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO...WITH ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR
...PRIMARILY DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RATHER STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER A BROAD AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WITH MOST ANY
CONVECTION THAT FORMS.

...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
SHALLOW SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL WISCONSIN NEAR
PEAK HEATING. WITH WIND FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ONLY
PROGGED TO BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY NEAR/NORTH OF
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. BY EARLY EVENING...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON
NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ABOVE STABLE OR STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...
BUT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000J/KG. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY WEAK BUT DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW REGIME.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG CAP AND STRENGTH OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING PROVIDE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...IN DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN WESTERN U.S.AND GULF SYSTEMS. STRONG HEATING AND MOISTURE
RETURN ARE PROGGED TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREAS INTO THE
VICINITY OF ABILENE. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST NORTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK HEATING MAY AWAIT APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

..KERR.. 03/15/03

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z