Update 4/14/04 of ENSO=A surprise el nino comming?

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

I personnally dont expect el nino to develop this summer but whoa a kelvin wave has formed in the western pacific and moving eastward but the question is if it will be sufficient to trigger a weak el nino event.Even IMO if a weak el nino appears it wont be a big factor in the atlantic distint if it is a moderate to strong one but let's watch the evolution of this new kelvin wave to see what impact will have when it reaches the eastern pacific.Other factors like the SOI in the tank and the MJO factors are also ones to look at.

[HURRICANELONNY]

What's the surprise. They have been talking that since January. It's not the first Kelvin Wave and won't be the last. They have no clue. The best probability is Neutral through whenever....

[hurricanetrack]

There is a lot of informaiton out there now and many computer models trying to pick up on whether or not there will be an El Nino of any strength this year.

While it is quite strange to see the SOI so negative (at least to me), I suppose that it alone is not a signal of an impending El Nino. Once we get to June 1- if there is no hint of an El Nino, then I'd bet the farm that there absolutely won't be during the '04 hurricane season.

We shall see.

[cycloneye]

What's the surprise. They have been talking that since January. It's not the first Kelvin Wave and won't be the last. They have no clue. The best probability is Neutral through whenever....

I posted the word surprise because all the talk in recent months from the models has been for neutral ENSO for this summer but if unexpectely el nino appears this summer I consider it a surprise event.

[Josephine96]

I like when the hurricane season is active.. it always keeps me busy lol

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that's a shock. As other people have said, it will still be active anyway. Wasn't 2002 an el nino? That year still was active.

[Josephine96]

Just remember.. active or not.. It only takes 1 to make or break a season

[cycloneye]

Just remember.. active or not.. It only takes 1 to make or break a season

You are correct about that John.

[hurricanetrack]

Either way- El Nino or not, active or not, obviously the big question is: where will any hurricanes that do form go? Like Joe B. says from time to time, it's the season's with just slightly above average activity that seem to cause a lot of trouble. I've never really looked into that- but 1989 rings a bell with Hugo. There we 11 named storms that year I think.

Anyhow- it is kind of ironic that Andrew was in a "slow" year as was some other great hurricanes.

I really hope people keep in mind what others have said here over and over. It REALLY does only take one. Imagine one cat-4 hurricane hitting the oil/gas industry of TX/LA. Now imagine that you will pay $3.00 for a gallon of gas- maybe more. Could happen. Hope not, I really hope not. But if it does, be ready. That's all we can do.

[cycloneye]

Yes Mark interesting that average to below average seasons haved in the past been very painful for many areas in the tropical regions and here in Puerto Rico in 1928 a cat 5 cane (San Felipe)hits here in a slow season.

[MWatkins]

I'm pretty sure that April and May are by far the most difficult months of the year to use current trends to forecast Nino developments. Not that attempting these forecasts is acedemic...it's not...but we probably won't know until mid June if a warm event is going to impact the atlantic hurricane season.

My guess is that there won't be much to get in the way of this season's Atlantic activity. A repeat of 1997, for example, isn't going to happen.

Even so, remember that there was a fairly strong Nino going in 1992. We only had 7 named storms...and the first name didn't get handed out until mid-August.

Can you imagine if we go until mid August this season without a named storm? The over/under on posts proclaiming a dead season by that time is 8,456.

MW

[Guest]

Even if a weak El Nino begins to develop now,it would have a very minimal effect on this season,there are still pockets of much below normal SSTS east of the date line so El Nino has a lot of work to do if it wants to affect the 2004 season.

If El Nino would have begun to get established months ago & those cooler SSTS weren't there,than it would be a different story.

[Derek Ortt]

2002 was a very quiet season with only 4 hurricanes. Activity is NOT measured in terms of tropical storms, but of hurricanes

[Anonymous]

2002 was a very quiet season with only 4 hurricanes. Activity is NOT measured in terms of tropical storms, but of hurricanes

Yep...NTC was only about 80%. Slightly below average rank.

[Guest]

As Mia_cantracker stated, if an el nino was to begin to take form, it would have a very minimal affect on the season. BUT! It could actually enhance development if an el nino was to begin to develop.
I don't beleive we will see an el nino affect on this season, but as we move into the winter of 2004-2005 we will begin to move into a el nino and that could allow for the season to linger a little longer.
Consider this. We are still in a negative qbo, winds are easterly, approaching neutral. This will shift westerly by June. This will also help keep the sst's in the eastern pacific normal or slightly cooler as we move through the first half of the season.
Then winter comes to the northern hemisphere, and if signs of an el nino are showing by november, we will be in for a long rough winter.
El Nino affecting this hurricane season seems very slim at this point, even if it does begin to show it's ugly head by June. If there is any affect, it will be during the latter portion of the season, late october and november, after the peak.
"It's not if, but when, a hurricane will threaten your area!"