Scientists Predict Big Earthquake by 9/5

[weatherlover427]

Scientist Predicts Earthquake by Sept. 5 Fri Apr 16, 2:42 PM ET By ANDREW BRIDGES, AP Science Writer

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. - A scientist who predicts a magnitude-6.4 or larger quake will strike the Southern California desert by Sept. 5 said his group has made other similar forecasts but that he would not disclose them publicly.

UCLA's Vladimir Keilis-Borok said Thursday doing so could trigger "disruptive behavior" while he and other scientists attempt to assess the validity of their largely untested prediction method.

"I would rather not talk about it," Keilis-Borok told a news conference at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America.

Other earthquake experts said the sort of predictions made by the group are of great scientific interest, but remain unproven.

"They have to understand the hypothetical nature of this research," Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, said of the public. "These types of predictions are made with tremendous amounts of uncertainty."

They also are of limited utility, whether disclosed or not, since they cover broad areas already known to be seismically active and large spans of time, experts added.

"You can argue people should do earthquake preparedness anyway and this is another reason to do it," said Egill Hauksson, a California Institute of Technology geophysicist.

Keilis-Borok and his colleagues predict there is a 50-50 chance that an earthquake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5.

The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. It has experienced nine magnitude-6.4 or larger quakes over the last 70 years.

Some of those quakes killed people and toppled buildings, while others passed almost unnoticed, said William Ellsworth, chief scientist of the U.S. Geological Survey (news - web sites)'s earthquake hazards team.

The new prediction gives quake scientists a bully pulpit to remind people of the very real seismic risk in the region, Ellsworth added.

"We know there will be earthquakes," he said. "The advice is out there and not always is it followed or taken seriously."

Keilis-Borok's team successfully forecast two earthquakes last year, the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in Central California and the magnitude-8.1 quake off Japan's Hokkaido island. As with the current Southern California prediction, the group had set wide limits in place and time for both quakes.

It's "only two, which is emphatically not enough to justify the methodology," Keilis-Borok said.

Beyond California and Japan, Keilis-Borok said his group also focuses on Italy and the Middle East. He would not say what regions his other predictions touched upon.

However, Ellsworth, of the USGS (news - web sites), said he knew of no other predictions for California quakes made by the group.

Keilis-Borok has said previously that he believes the combination of pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory and statistical physics allows earthquakes to be predicted as hitting within a nine-month window.

He said he would disclose his other predictions at the close of the window or after the predicted quake occurred.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... prediction LINK to story

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Hopefully this isn't true. With all the population growth out here since Northridge I don't think we're ready for another quake of that same magnitude.

[Aslkahuna]

used to say that only fools and charlatans predict earthquakes though admittedly we may be better off now than when he made that observation.
That being said, earthquakes in SoCA are as inevitable as typhoons in the Western Pacific-it's not a matter of if but when and how bad.

Steve

[coriolis]

That raises a real ethical dilemma. Why is he releasing his prediction but doesn't want to talk about the methodology? That doesn't sound like good science to me.

Chaos theory? woooOOOOOoooo

[GalvestonDuck]

I know they don't want the quake to happen, but I'm sure NBC is loving this -- more viewers for their TV-movie "10.5" about a big west coast quake.

[azskyman]

What is the largest and most significant quake in San Diego County...anyone know? My one son lives in NE San Diego while son #2 is about to move to Point Loma.

[Guest]

Steve, I got this from the San Deigo Natural History Museum website:

In modern times the strongest recorded quake (seismographs were not developed until 1934) in coastal San Diego County was the M5.3 temblor that occurred on 13 July 1986 on the Coronado Bank Fault, 25 miles offshore of Solana Beach.
http://www.sdnhm.org/research/paleontol ... aults.html

...Jennifer...

[Wnghs2007]

Hopefully one day we will have the ability to predict earthquakes...but as of now I am not that optimistic about this prediction actually working...but heck its really just a matter of when for that area...

[furluvcats]

I've been seeing this all over the local news Josh...it freaks me out a little more than hurricanes or tornados bc there is no warning...what if my kids are off riding bikes, etc, thoughts run through my head, and then the rational me takes over and theres no use in worrying...what can I do?

[azskyman]

Shannon, I agree...not much use in worrying, but you should have an "earthquake plan" just in case. Getting outside instead of inside, etc. How to contact each other if phones and cell phones are out. A place to meet if you can't get home, etc..
At the casino where Brian works, I'm sure they have a plan on how to secure the place very quickly if that happens.

Thanks Jennifer for the website. I'll check it out in detail. The kids have already felt a couple quakes. Deborah works at the ocean shore in La Jolla so not only is a quake a potential problem, but so would be a tsunami.

[azsnowman]

He must work for the NWS in Flagstaff.......his predictions for earthquakes is as accurate as NWS/Flags predictions for SNOW this past winter "LOL!"

Sorry, I know this is no laughing matter, it's a serious situation BUT, as Aslkahuna said:

used to say that only fools and charlatans predict earthquakes though admittedly we may be better off now than when he made that observation.
That being said, earthquakes in SoCA are as inevitable as typhoons in the Western Pacific-it's not a matter of if but when and how bad.

Dennis

[streetsoldier]

...and I'm sitting 25 miles from the epicenter of the 1811-1812 New Madrid quake, on reclaimed land that's nothing but sand with an occasional tree growing through it...

[ColdFront77]

25 miles in what direction?

[streetsoldier]

NNW, to be specific...right ON the fault line.

[Lindaloo]

Is that the new fault line Bill?

[Aslkahuna]

has been known ever since the 1811-12 earthquake series that is the largest ever recorded in the lower 48 (the Prince William Sound Earthquake of 1964 in Alaska is the largest ever in the US with a MM of 9.2). Actually, running outside is not usually recommended in an earthquake especially around high rises where falling debris and glass shards can catch you. The exception would be if you live in a lower floor of an apartment building since the upper floors could pancake down. Bear in mind, however, that the actual shaking in most earthquakes and the damage occurs over a short period of time (though it may seem like forever to you) with only the very largest temblors lasting a minute or more. The best place to ride one out is either in a doorway, under a strong table or desk or under a bed. One item to make sure that you have is a wrench to use for the shutoff valve of the gas and know where it is located (along with your power cutoff and water shutoff). Fire is extremely common after a large earthquake and in San Francisco in 1906, Tokyo in 1923, Kobe in 1995 was a very notable occurrence therefore you must not only shut off your gas but avoid cooking inside your home. Finally, if you are dealing with a shock on the order of the Loma Prieta or Northridge shocks-even outside the major damage zones, you should be prepared for at least 72 hours without utilities and you will be totally on your own for at least that long. For a bigger shock you will need to be even more prepared. I have about 30 days supply of water, dry and canned food for me and the dog, a portable stove and 30 days worth of cooking gas along with gasoline to power my generator and batteries for my emergency lights and radios plus both my van and camping trailer can be lived in so I'm probably reasonably well off but everyone in earthquake country should have a disaster plan, supplies and first aid kits since help may not be immediately forthcoming.

Steve

[furluvcats]

Steve...thanks so much for [osting all of that earthquake awaredness stuff...I had no clue about any of that. So far, no one has told us anything about earthquake kits, etc here. Any more info, though you were very thorough would be appreciated...

So, in a 2 story house...where would the safest place be?

[streetsoldier]

Yes, Lindaloo, it is on the "new" fault line...13 miles inland from the present course of the Mississippi, and in 1811, where I am now WAS under Mississippi River water.

Sadly, if it DOES "go off", the soil here will liquefy, rendering any attempt at survival academic at best...

[Wnghs2007]

Yes, Lindaloo, it is on the "new" fault line...13 miles inland from the present course of the Mississippi, and in 1811, where I am now WAS under Mississippi River water.

Sadly, if it DOES "go off", the soil here will liquefy, rendering any attempt at survival academic at best...

Sorry to hear that...I will hope and pray that it does not go of any time soon...stay safe...

[Aslkahuna]

in California or interested in California earthquakes should get is
Earthquake Country: How, Why, and Where Earthquakes Strike in California. It is an excellent primer on earhtquakes , where the major faults are, how to identify fault features in the terrain and includes a chapter on Earthquake preparedness. The book is written by Robert L. Iacopi and is published by Fisher Books, 4239 W. Ina Rd, Suite 101, Tucson AZ 85741. According to what I see on the map, Temecula is located near the Elsinore Fault-the westernmost of the the major branches of the Southern San Andreas Fault system. It has been quiet for the past 2 Centuries which is probably not significant.

Steve

[furluvcats]

Yeah....some neighborhood kids that grew up here say when a quake comes, the walls of the house kinda roll in and out...thats crazy! I'm in a more established neighborhood, so I am assumeing the house we are in is fairly substantial...it's still here...I wonder where I could learn about any of Temecula's past earthquakes...FYI...The kids assure me it's nothing at all like the ride at Disney or Universal...whichever it may be....lol

Thanks for reccomending the book...shall make for interesting reading!