My First Seasonal Predictions

[Windtalker]

I am new to this and alittle scared to post predictions because of ways others from other sites tend to make fun of you. But after reading all the posts here and seeing all the support and help you all give to the "NEWBIES" I figured i'd give it a try so here it goes.......................... Since 1995 the SST's have been above average I feel resulting in the more active Season. My main concern from this is that durning above average SST's periods, Florida averaged a hit by a Hurricane every year compared to every 10 years when SST's were below normal. My first prediction is that Florida will be hit by one of the "4" Major Hurricanes I feel will form this year. As for the location...Broward/Palm Beach Counties. (Just a guess and not because I live here) The other factor in all of this is the Upper level wind flow pattern. All indications suggests a more "Westerly" flow enhancing lower level Thunderstorm development thus decreasing low latitude wind shear. All this resulting in more tropical development. Some of the sites I used to come up with my predictions are as follows: http://www.ec.gc.ca/science/sandejuly02/article2_e.html http://weather.unisys.com/archive/index.html The total numbers for the 2004 Season based on my study are 14/6/4 Comments welcomed...Thanks

[Hyperstorm]

Congratulations, being your first seasonal forecast, it sounds good. Now, IMO, I think that the hurricane numbers might be a little low, especially if La Nina develops. La Nina tends to increase the number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes because there is less than normal wind shear, especially when you are forecasting many named storms (14).

P.S. You don't have to worry about being teased here at Storm2k as you will encounter a big family of weather enthusiasts and professionals. Welcome!

[weatherluvr]

While La Nina may be an enhancing factor this year, a possible inhibiting factor may be the SAL we've seen the last couple of years, so those numbers look pretty good to me. Nice job, Windtalker-- and welcome!

[Hyperstorm]

While it may be true that SAL reduces tropical Atlantic activity (only when present and not as a whole), the SAL is something that occurs almost every year at one point or another during the hurricane season. This season will be no exception, and the SAL will likely make its appeareance sometime in June or July and most likely continue until August, only to minimize itself during the peak of the season. It usually is present during the weeks when the Azores high is at its strongest and farthest south position. In any event, I respect your opinion as it is a valid one.

[chadtm80]

Sal Maps

http://www.storm2k.org/weather800/sal.htm

[Windtalker]

Thanks all for your comments. I look forward to tracking all the Storms this year......

[Guest]

Good forecast.

But you left out my county (Miami-Dade) in your landfall prediction.

J/K

Welcome aboard

[Stormsfury]

Like others, the number of hurricane MIGHT be a little low, but IF La Niña develops, it doesn't guarantee that the number of storms will be high, but could represent more of a ratio where there are more storms that do become hurricanes...

Examples ...

2002 ... Weak El Niño ... 12 storms, but ONLY 4 hurricanes.
2003 ... Neutral Conditions ... 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major.
1995 ... Neutral Conditions ... 19 storms, 11 hurricanes, 4 major.
1996 ... La Niña ... 13 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 MAJOR.
1998 ... La Niña ... 14 storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 major.

Just some food for thought, but the 14/6/4 numbers look good (especially since conditions IMHO will favor neutral). The majors might be a bit high for neutral, but La Niña conditions favor the major hurricane number to verify. Otherwise, a quite sensible prediction.