April 2004: After Cold Period, First Hint of Summer?

[donsutherland1]

As March approaches an end, it appears that the <b>March outlook</b> fared pretty well, though there were some timing issues. Now, with the month approaching its end, much milder temperatures prevail, though the curse of the backdoor cold front looms this weekend.

In the April 21, 1894 issue of <i>Harper's Weekly</i>, Louise Chandler Moulton celebrated the demise of winter:

<i>Winter, the cruel, was put to flight;
And March retreated, with lingering sigh--
Now the world is glad, from morning till night,
And glad as the season are you and I.</i>

After a winter of normal to above normal snowfall across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Southeast U.S., the question arises whether April will prove to be the month Winter 2003-04 "was put to flight."

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one, for the Washington, DC to Boston area, it appears that April will largely be a screenplay with three major acts: A cold start, a warm middle, and a cool close.

Given the preponderance of analogs, one might reasonably expect the following:

• No big snowfalls from NYC to Boston, though a trace is likely. More than an inch is not with only Boston having a small chance of somewhat more.
• No snow for Washington, D.C.
• A period where temperatures approach or reach 90° in Washington, D.C. and soar into at least the lower 80s as far north as New York City. The most likely timing for such an event would be in the April 12-18 timeframe.

Unfortunately, while winter weather lovers dream of a last glorious snowstorm ala April 1982 or April 1997, analog data strongly argues against such a development.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region: </b>

<b>April 1-7:</b> Below normal to normal temperatures with New England seeing below normal readings; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
<b>April 8-14:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>April 15-21:</b> Above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation in the Northeast and somewhat above normal precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region.
<b>April 22-30:</b> Below normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.

All said, expect near normal monthly readings in this region except New England where temperatures should run somewhat below normal. Precipitation should be near normal in the Northeast and somewhat above normal across the Mid-Atlantic region.

<b>Nationwide Summary for March:</b>

<b>Central Plains:</b> Above normal temperatures; Above normal to much above normal precipitation.
<b>Mid-Atlantic:</b> Near normal temperatures; Somewhat above normal precipitation.
<b>Northeast:</b> Somewhat below normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Northern Plains:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Ohio Valley:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Pacific Northwest:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Southern Plains:</b> Above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Southeast:</b> Above normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal normal precipitation (below normal precipitation should be the case for Florida).
<b>Southwest:</b> Above to much above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.

In conclusion, April will see winter cling tenaciously to life at the beginning of the month but the first hot breath of summer could overspread the East somewhere around the middle of the month.

[donsutherland1]

At the midpoint of the month, a brief evaluation of the monthly forecast is in order.

As anticipated, the month started cold. Now, a warm middle period seems poised to develop though perhaps a little later than noted. Whether or not the month cools near the end remains to be seen.

Several specific points are in order at this time:

First, there have been no big snowfalls from New York city to Boston. Boston has picked up a trace of snow for the month (April 5).

Second, neither New York City nor Washington, DC have seen any snow this month.

Thus, there was no repeat of 1982 or 1997. Cities such as Burlington, VT did receive an appreciable snowfall for the month (3.8" snowfall on April 4-5). Others such as Albany (0.1") and Concord, NH (0.1") received almost none.

Third, the modeling is in fairly good agreement of a burst of much above normal temperatures in the April 18-19 period. 80° is a possibility in NYC if the modeling holds up and perhaps middle 80s or above is plausible in Washington, DC.

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following has occurred:

<b>Boston:</b>
April 1-7: Temperature 3.7° below normal; 4.97" precipitation
April 8-14: Temperature 1.4° above normal; 2.27" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 30° 4/6; Highest Temperature: 61°, 4/14

<b>New York City:</b>
April 1-7: Temperature 3.7° below normal; 0.35" precipitation
April 8-14: Temperature 0.5° below normal; 2.03" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 29° 4/5; Highest Temperature: 67°, 4/7

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
April 1-7: Temperature 4.5° below normal; 1.32" precipitation
April 8-14: Temperature 4.3° below normal; 1.68" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 31° 4/5; Highest Temperature: 77°, 4/7

[Stephanie]

I hope Spring has finally sprung for good! So far we've had over 4.5" of rain this month which you would kind of expect for April, but the cold was getting very annoying! I'm soooo looking forward to the 70 degree temps this weekend!

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

After the ongoing warmth, which should last through Monday (probably the peak of the warmth with widespread 80s from the Mid-Atlantic region into southern New England) and possibly Tuesday (Mid-Atlantic), I still believe it will turn cooler and that the month will end on a fairly cool note (analogs and some model support).

We'll see how things shape up.

Enjoy today's warmth.

[SacrydDreamz]

Currently 88°F in Leesburg, VA. Maybe they'll make 90°F?

[Guest]

Even with just cool off the water mid 60's, the Ocean City MD boardwalk getting an early workout..WOW! never ceases to amaze me how popular this place is, even in winter and Spring.
Wall to wall people for blocks. IF they get hot, 45 degree Atlantic Ocean water is just a couple of hundred yards to their EAST..LOL!

[donsutherland1]

Today, the temperature soared into the upper 80s and even lower 90s around the Washington, DC area. Highlights included:

Andrews Air Force Base (Camp Spring, MD): 91°
Baltimore: 87°
Leesburg, VA: 91°
Washington, DC: 87°

[donsutherland1]

High temperatures were very impressive today (4/19), across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Highlights included:

Albany: 91°
Baltimore: 90°
Boston: 86°
Burlington: 82°
Hartford: 85°
New York City: 85°
Newark: 88°
Philadelphia: 86°
Providence: 81°
Richmond: 90°
Washington, DC: 91°
Wilmington: 85°

[Josephine96]

Very warm day for the Northeast today. Makes me almost want our 90's to arrive.

I am actually a big fan of the hot weather

[Stephanie]

led - they had on the news last night pictures of people laying out on the beach in Wildwood, NJ! It was absolutely amazing and so well deserved for us! I wore shorts all weekend long!

Don - I don't mind if it does get cooler, just as long as it doesn't go any lower than the 60's during the day. I want to put my winter coat away!

[donsutherland1]

Josephine96,

Hopefully, you will see your share of hot weather--enough to satisfy your thirst for it.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

Even up in the NYC area, it got very warm with a high of 85° during mid-afternoon. Tomorrow will be cooler and then Wednesday should be noticeably cooler.

As for the rest of the month, it would not suprise me if there were at least one day where the mercury failed to break 60° at Atlantic City and maybe Philadelphia, too.

Afterward, we'll see whether May begins on the same cool note that should end April.

[Josephine96]

Don.. Another thing I like about our hot weather. We get the strong to severe thunderstorms to go with it.

I like when it rains and storms because of the heat

[vbhoutex]

Wow!! the NE and MA have been warmer than we have and we've been above normal!!!! Reminds me of being in NYC APR 2002 with the mercury at 96ºF!!!!

[donsutherland1]

Vbhoutex,

Sometimes April heat does not lead to a hot summer in the Eastern U.S. It will be interesting to see how things turn out this summer, though my inclination is to expect a warmer than normal summer, though not an extreme one.

[donsutherland1]

April 2004--Second half and quick monthly wrap-up

The second half of April saw readings average generally much above normal during the April 15-21 period and then above average during the April 22-30 period. There was a cool stretch during the April 22-30 period, but it was not sufficiently prolonged or notable to bring the period's average temperatures below normal.

Most notably, April 2002 did see a "period where temperatures approach or reach 90° in Washington, D.C. and soar into at least the lower 80s as far north as New York City." The peak temperatures during this hot spell occurred on April 19 vs. the initial idea that "the most likely timing for such an event would be in the April 12-18 timeframe."

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following occurred during the April 15-30 period:

<b>Boston:</b>
April 15-21: Temperature 4.6° above normal; 0.11" precipitation
April 22-30: Temperature 2.6° above normal; 2.20" precipitation

<b>New York City:</b>
April 15-21: Temperature 6.2° above normal; 0.10" precipitation
April 22-30: Temperature 2.1° above normal; 1.63" precipitation

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
April 15-21: Temperature 9.3° above normal; Trace of precipitation
April 22-30: Temperature 4.3° above normal; 0.84" precipitation

<b>Monthly Totals:</b>

<B>Boston:</b>
Temperature: 1.3° above normal
Precipitation: 9.57" (monthly record)
Snowfall: Trace
Highest Temperature: 86°, April 19
Lowest Temperature: 30°, April 6

<b>New York City:</b>
Temperature: 1.1° above normal
Precipitation: 4.11"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 85°, April 19
Lowest Temperature: 29°, April 5

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
Temperature: 1.2° above normal
Precipitation: 3.84"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 91°, April 19
Lowest Temperature: 31°, April 5