A Different Look To Things

[Guest]

In years past there was a different look to the pattern thats in place now(IMO)..The Azores High at the present time seems to be more of a mix between the Bermuda & Azores as the center of the high is off to the west more than I can recall seeing it in other years.

Also the sea surface pressures south of 20N appear to be lower than in previous years.

Wind shear across the Atlantic basin seems to be less than before.

SSTs in the Atlantic east of 60W are normal to almost 2 degrees above normal in spots,while closer to the U.S. east coast SSTs are still a bit below normal..That should change especially around Fla & the GOM waters as the spring & summer month take hold..Time will tell if the SSTs off the mid-Atlantic will repeat last years trend & stay cooler than normal,that did'nt stop isabel from impacting that area though be it a CAT 2 instead of 4 or 5.

Add to all this that La Nina looking signature in the Pacific,the more active than normal ITCZ & the ingredients are in place for a very active season.



My updated #'s for the 2004 hurricane season have been raised substantially from 12/7/3 to 15/8/4

[Storm Man]

Thanks.

[Guest]

No problem.

[Guest]

Please feel free to refer to this thread for your updated info on SST anomalies in the ATL & PAC & all the other info provided & comments are welcome as conditions/patterns change.

[cycloneye]

2 things MIA first I see that the cool pool of water is expanding a little and getting more blue than before a sign that el nino is sleeping.And second the ITCZ is fairly active but still is around 5 n the axis however it is early for it to move to 10n but with time it will and then will see the parade of tropical waves begin some comming out of the ITCZ axis and many more exciting africa.

[Guest]

Yes Luis the cooler than normal SSTs in the Pacific continue to expand westward with each passing day telling me that El Nino, even a weak one will not be present this hurricane season..Neutral conditions seems probable at this time.

& yes while the ITCZ is pretty south which is normal for this time of year,it is quite energized..If this continues to be the case when July,Aug, & Sept arrive & the ITCZ is in its normal position & this type of convection continues,it will be an active tropical Atlantic this year.

[dixiebreeze]

Very good information and graphics. Looks like a busy season.

[MWatkins]

That cold tounge extending from South America has grown some over the last week or so. Hardly a sign of any impending warm Nino event.

Again this is the hardest time of the year to forecast a Nino or Nina...but the longer the Epac stays cool...the less chance there is of a warm event occuring during the peak of the season.

It's probably going to be a busy season.

MW

[wxman57]

Since 1995, the North Atlantic has been dominated, overwhelmingly, but a negative NAO. When this happens, the "normal" Greenland low is displaced southward and the Bermuda high is much weaker and farther to the east. This has the general effect of reducing both pressures and tradewinds in the deep tropics, making the area quite conducive to tropical development. But this pattern also leaves the North Atlantic open to storms recurving northward before they reach the U.S.

But over the past few years, we've seen some changes. The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which has been in the warm/positive phase since 1976 may be making a reversal to the cool/negative phase that existed from 1946-1976. When the PDO goes negative, the ridge/trof relationship downstream is affected. I've noticed a general trend for that protective east U.S. coast trof to retrograde (move westward) over the past two seasons. Remember all thos major U.S. landfalls between 1946-1976? For much of this time, the Atlantic SSTs were above normal, giving hurricanes more energy to develop into major storms. When the Atlantic SSTs are above normal (as they'll quite possibly be for several more decades) and the PDO goes negative/cool, that's a very bad setup for the U.S.

That's why I say to ignore those numbers. Whether there are 7-8-9 or 14-15-16 named storms is not important. Sure, it's fun to try to guess, but it's the patterns that govern whether there will be more major hurricanes and whether the chance of landfall is increasing, not the total number of named storms. And I see the pattern slowly shifting to a very threatening one for the U.S. Florida, in particular, is at a very high risk of a major landfall this season, and that'll be the case for the next 20 years or more. I think Florida can expect a major hurricane every 2-3 years, instead of one (peninsula) every 38 years which they've just experienced.

Scary, isn't it?

[Rainband]

Scary, Nah Thanks Chris, I think

[Guest]

Yes it is fun to guess the #'s but #'s mean very little in terms of landfalls as you stated Chris.

South Fla's biggest baddest canes occurred during what many would call "slow seasons"

1.1926 Great Miami Hurricane CAT 4- 11 Named Storms
2.Labor Day Hurricane 1935 CAT 5- 6 Named storms
3.A Oct of 41 CAT 3 hurricane strikes Mia from the east- 6 Named Storms
4.In Sept of 45 a CAT 4 hurricane strikes South Dade county & then goes right up the spine of the peninsula- 11 Named Storms
5.In Sept of 47 a powerful CAT 4 hurricane slams into the North Broward/South Palm Beach County areas,this hurricane was a CAT 5 just hours before landfall..Another weaker hurricane hit SW Fla in Oct- 9 Named Storms
6.In 48 2 strong CAT 3/4 hurricanes just 2 weeks apart buffeted the Keys SW/SE Fla areas- 9 Names Storms
7.The infamous Hurricane Donna in 60,A CAT 4 cut a path thru the Upper Keys,into SW Fla,across Fla & straight up the east coast.- 6 Named Storms
8.Hurricane Betsy in 65 appeared to be recurving before turning SW & Wwrd striking the Keys & South Fla as a CAT 4- 5 Named Storms
9.Last but not least CAT 5 Hurricane Andrew becomes the costliest hurricane in history after buzz sawing his way thru South Dade County.- 6 Named Storms

As you can see each one of those storms listed were CAT 3 & up so #'s don't mean squat when it comes to someone being devastated by a powerful hurricane.

Also that may show the strikes on South Fla in particular during "slow seasons" but what I didn't list was hurricane impacts on South Fla in active seasons, & once a hurricane gets close enough to impact Fla..Someone else is likely to be affected as well.

Like Chris & other meteorologists have mentioned..The changes that have been taking place in the Atl are a bit scary if you don't want to see a onslaught of hurricanes headed your way, but I think we are in that pattern where that is going to begin happening sooner than later,slow season or busy season.

[wxman57]

Yes it is fun to guess the #'s but #'s mean very little in terms of landfalls as you stated Chris.

South Fla's biggest baddest canes occurred during what many would call "slow seasons"

1.1926 Great Miami Hurricane CAT 4- 11 Named Storms
2.Labor Day Hurricane 1935 CAT 5- 6 Named storms
3.A Oct of 41 CAT 3 hurricane strikes Mia from the east- 6 Named Storms
4.In Sept of 45 a CAT 4 hurricane strikes South Dade county & then goes right up the spine of the peninsula- 11 Named Storms
5.In Sept of 47 a powerful CAT 4 hurricane slams into the North Broward/South Palm Beach County areas,this hurricane was a CAT 5 just hours before landfall..Another weaker hurricane hit SW Fla in Oct- 9 Named Storms
6.In 48 2 strong CAT 3/4 hurricanes just 2 weeks apart buffeted the Keys SW/SE Fla areas- 9 Names Storms
7.The infamous Hurricane Donna in 60,A CAT 4 cut a path thru the Upper Keys,into SW Fla,across Fla & straight up the east coast.- 6 Named Storms
8.Hurricane Betsy in 65 appeared to be recurving before turning SW & Wwrd striking the Keys & South Fla as a CAT 4- 5 Named Storms
9.Last but not least CAT 5 Hurricane Andrew becomes the costliest hurricane in history after buzz sawing his way thru South Dade County.- 6 Named Storms

As you can see each one of those storms listed were CAT 3 & up so #'s don't mean squat when it comes to someone being devastated by a powerful hurricane.

Also that may show the strikes on South Fla in particular during "slow seasons" but what I didn't list was hurricane impacts on South Fla in active seasons, & once a hurricane gets close enough to impact Fla..Someone else is likely to be affected as well.

Like Chris & other meteorologists have mentioned..The changes that have been taking place in the Atl are a bit scary if you don't want to see a onslaught of hurricanes headed your way, but I think we are in that pattern where that is going to begin happening sooner than later,slow season or busy season.

Audrey '57 - Cat 4 hit Lake Charles -- 7 storms that year
Alicia '83 - Cat 3 hit Houston/Galveston - 4 storms that year
1915 Cat 4 Galveston Hurricane - 4 storms that year

So there are lots of major landfalls in seasons with few storms.

[cycloneye]

Still plenty of shear in the tropical atlantic above 10n and the GOM as you would expect this time of the year to not let anything going.However as time goes by the shear will fade slowly and move to northern latituds away from the deep tropics and by then things will start to pop up first with the first tropical waves leading the parade.The questions pending for the season are=How will the season evolve in terms of the tracks,if it will begin with early systems,if it will be a late season one and how will the TUTT be positioned and how strong it may be.Those questions will be answered in a month when it all starts.