James Franklin talk

[hurricanetrack]

Well- I sat through almost 3 hours of a great James Franklin talk. For those who do not know- JF is a forecaster at the NHC. Anyhow- there is so much to report about that I do not know where to begin.

Essentially, he said that when considering model forecasts for a tropical cyclone, that the NHC uses a GUNA consensus approach a lot and that it yields great results. Every year, a different model might step up and be the best overall model. Last year it was the GFDL- you might have already known that. Other years it has been NOGAPS or AVN(GFS).

The bottom line is that when they say something like "our forecast follows the GUNA consensus" we need to pay attention to that. Sounds obvious enough.

As far as intensity- no real improvement there until better core readings are taken using radar and Lidar to detect inflow, moisture, temp, etc. Then, the dynamic models MIGHT be able to better handle intensity forecasts.

The best is still the SHIPS overall....

James also does not like the seasonal forecasts. He says that they do nothing for any individual and that more effort could be placed elsewhere in terms of research. Fortunately, no one at the talk (mostly HAM, NWS and media types) asked about how many hurricanes James was expecting this season.

Forecaster Franklin is very intelligent. He really knows his science. It was a long talk and I absorbed every minute of it.

Later this evening, I'll post links to some video clips of his presentation. In case you wanted to know what he looks like- you'll get that chance.

That's it for now. Good stuff- again, I learned some new stuff...I always do when hearing these guys speak.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the update!!