Some already may be dissapointed and season has not started

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 01, 2004 6:52 am

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

I know that some people are not happy to see the ITCZ inactive as it is today may 1.In the last few days the ITCZ has been active especially east of 40w and that included a big convective area of showers and thunderstorms that emerged africa but after that happened the area fizzled and dry air with less divergent flow has taken control and that is why the ITCZ is inactive.But it is may and fluctuations occur in the ITCZ so dont think that your hopes for action are doomed but only be patient as the waiting will be worth later on.

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat May 01, 2004 7:49 am

Ya, what a difference a day makes.. LOL.. ITCZ has been hopping..

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat May 01, 2004 8:11 am

That reminds me of someone from weather.com that used to say "stick a fork in the hurricane season" whenever a storm was not reaching cat.5 strength !!

And even if a cat.5 was out there but not hitting their location, they'd still say "stick a fork in it". :roll:

It was very hard to please them !!

Typhoon_Willie · #4 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Sat May 01, 2004 8:13 am

Yes that it was hopping there for a while. But it does seem funny that some people do not learn that the time for development in the Far East Atlantic is in the middle of August on through late September. The climate for development is not good until then!

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat May 01, 2004 8:29 am

Even then they won't be pleased. The only way to please some of them is to be in the NE eyewall of a large, stationary cat.5 hurricane for 3 weeks. And after that, they'd be dissapointed again because it's all over 8-)

#6 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat May 01, 2004 12:10 pm

It's true the ITCZ has fizzled for now, but I'll put my money on an early storm in the GOM. The SSTs are warming and I think there will be a witches brew there real soon.

HurricaneBill · #7 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat May 01, 2004 9:30 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Yes that it was hopping there for a while. But it does seem funny that some people do not learn that the time for development in the Far East Atlantic is in the middle of August on through late September. The climate for development is not good until then!

Exactly! Some people seem to think that come June 1st, a hurricane will instantly form off the Cape Verde Islands!

The earliest Cape Verde storm was Hurricane Bertha in 1996, which formed in early July.

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 01, 2004 9:36 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Typhoon_Willie wrote:Yes that it was hopping there for a while. But it does seem funny that some people do not learn that the time for development in the Far East Atlantic is in the middle of August on through late September. The climate for development is not good until then!

Exactly! Some people seem to think that come June 1st, a hurricane will instantly form off the Cape Verde Islands!

The earliest Cape Verde storm was Hurricane Bertha in 1996, which formed in early July.

Yes I totally know this....There is two much shear...the water conditions are not to favorable...and the storms tend to go to fast....Case and point TD #2 last year 23 MPH!!!!!!!!!!!

The season for Hurricanes in the Gulf is basically why they start the season so early.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 02, 2004 5:38 am

The real hurricane season starts at august 15th and lasts until september 30th when the peak of the cape verde season is.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 03, 2004 1:35 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

Wow I haven't seen this very dry east atlantic for some years without almost any clouds.And look at that jet stream with 80-115 kts upper winds.However this very dry event now will be contraproducent later because as the east atlantic is void of clouds it will permit the waters to warm more rapidly as the sun will do it's job.

Wnghs2007 · #11 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon May 03, 2004 1:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

Wow I haven't seen this very dry east atlantic for some years without almost any clouds.And look at that jet stream with 80-115 kts upper winds.However this very dry event now will be contraproducent later because as the east atlantic is void of clouds it will permit the waters to warm more rapidly as the sun will do it's job.

Wow I have not seen the atlantic that dry in quit a while.... this should as you have stated above allow the sun to do its thing...I cant wait to see what type of effect this event will have on the hurricane season...keep us updated cycloneye

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 04, 2004 7:19 am

And inside africa is as clear of clouds as I ever seen in a long time.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 13, 2004 1:38 pm

An update after 2 weeks of this thread shows no big changes in the southward position around 4n and a less active ITCZ than in april when it was more active.This may be caused by an upper level ridge and dry air in the tropical atlantic that is supressing the ITCZ southward and nor letting it migrate to a more normal position in latitud at this time in mid may.Because of this I still know after 2 weeks of this thread that some people in their heart already are bored to see the ITCZ not active and more south than normal for mid may and want to see many blobs of red color and see the ITCZ at around 10n in the atlantic by now but sooner rather than later that axis will begin to move northward and be more active in time as the Cape Verde season starts by early august.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 29, 2004 4:51 pm

Ok being late may now the ITCZ still is not active as it should be with very scattered areas of convection but in the past few days the ITCZ is almost inactive as very little pockets of showers dot the axis with still the anticyclone dominating the tropical atlantic with the dry air.The latitud position has been more north around 7-8n and that is normal for this time of the year.I know that many people would want to see an ITCZ with much more red color than what it is now.But be patient because things will change in a few weeks as the cape verde season kicks off by early august.

#15 Postby **wxman57** » Sat May 29, 2004 5:33 pm

If we're lucky, we won't see Alex until mid August. That would be just fine with me. Maybe even September..

chadtm80 · #16 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat May 29, 2004 5:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:If we're lucky, we won't see Alex until mid August. That would be just fine with me. Maybe even September..

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 29, 2004 5:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:If we're lucky, we won't see Alex until mid August. That would be just fine with me. Maybe even September..

LOL Chris

I see the word BORING sooner rather than later posted many times if this inactive ITCZ continues?