Severe weather on the way? OH, W.PA, N/W.KY, S.IN?

[Guest]

IMO Yes. Within the next several hrs. Atmosphere is becoming very unstable with dews now into the low 60s and temps have been shooting up for the last two hrs or so from the mid 60s to now sitting at 77 under clear skies. This is here where i am which as well is where the latest MESO discussion is out for. (see SPC for more info on that. (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/Have some rather strong storms already firing to the east of me in Eastern OH. I suspect in a hr or so some kind of watch will be need which at this point looks like it will be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Just not enough upper support right now for a Tornado watch to be issued. However as with anything that could change as well. I for one wasnt expecting skies to clear like they have and as well temps to soar to probably 80 the way its looking. Forecasted high was supposed to be upper 60s to around 70 under cloudy skies with on and off showers and thunderstorms all day. Which would have helped in keeping the atmosphere a bit more stable thus keping the severe threat on the very low side.

Keep your eyes peeled here for more updates as it starts to happen. Any other views on this please share them.

[tomboudreau]

KOW...yes...it is going to be a rocking afternoon and evening for us here in West Central PA as well. We had some rain showers this morning move through around 10:30...and ever since the sun has been out and the humidity is very high. It surely feels like a summer day out there. I'm glad we got the windows opened up in this old house. We probably would have died. NWS Pittsburgh is calling for damaging winds this evening and tonight as storms move through. Hopefully we will get some good storms firing up. Looking at the current radar shows good storms firing to the west already.



As you mentioned above, SPC also has a statement out on the threat for severe weather.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OH AND WRN PA...NWRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 011848Z - 012045Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN OH INTO WRN
PA/NWRN WV DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
REINTENSIFY ON THE ERN SIDE OF AN MVC OVER SERN OH. INCREASING
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL OH IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FURTHER
EAST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR YNG SWWD TOWARDS ZZV.
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME REALIZED OVER BOTH OF THESE AREA
WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS PER REGIONAL VWPS/...STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES 30-35 KTS FROM /1-2 KM/ COUPLED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY MAY AID AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN A
LINEAR FASHION OR MID LEVEL /3-6 KM/ WINDS INCREASE MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..CROSBIE.. 05/01/2004


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...


Stay safe everyone in these areas.

Tom

[Brett Adair]

I HATE multi-cell clusters. Screws up a good day of supercells because of inflow blockage in areas that are capable of the development. Looks like the same threat for you guys up there....heavy rain/large hail/wet microbursts.

[therock1811]

Believe me I'm watching this closely as I already have storms to my SW near SDF...

[TMT]

The horse that wins the Kentucky Derby today is going to have to be the best swimmer. Churchill Downs has been hit by a big storm within the last hour.

[therock1811]

Yep and some of that is heading my way!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kiln.shtml

[therock1811]

Well we got some hvy rain and wind gusts what I estimate to have been 45 mph when the storms rolled thru 24 hours ago but nothing severe...just a lot of rain and wind...