Interesting Key West AFD

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 031923
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2004

.SUN-MON...LATEST EXTENDED GFS BLOWS UP A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN...BRINGS IT OVER S FLORIDA..AND OCCLUDES IT OVER THE
BAHAMAS BY MON. THIS IS DUE TO ITS LARGE 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO SET
UP OVER THE GULF. I WILL TEMPER THIS BACK INTO THE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS PATTERN...UNTIL WE SEE SOME
LATER RUNS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
&&

.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 075/083/074/083/075/083 30/20/10/10/10/00
MARATHON 075/086/074/085/075/085 30/20/10/10/10/00
&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/DIGITAL...CLIFF B.
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.......D. FELTGEN


Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[EmeraldCoast1]

excerpt from the 1400 discussion today, May 3:

.EXTENDED...THE CANADIAN GEM AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY THAT CULMINATES IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL
GULF. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT EVEN IF THIS
UNUSUAL FEATURE COMES TO PASS...THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM.


Weird?!

[Rainband]

Long term (wed night-monday)...high pressure dominates through the
period with moisture slowly returning by Saturday. Surface ridge
axis will be across northern Florida so expect scattered
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Sat-Monday as East Coast sea breeze
moves into area. Prefer European model (ecmwf)/UKMET model solutions with a broad
ridge across the southern U.S. And Florida. Will discount AVN/GFS
solutions as both try to develop cold core upper low over Texas
Thursday then drop it into the Gulf over the weekend then toward
forecast area Monday. Expect low temperatures to moderate into the M-
u60s by Saturday with highs over the weekend in the u80s

[cycloneye]

The key words Johnnathan there are COLD CORE so nothing tropical.

[Rainband]

The key words Johnnathan there are COLD CORE so nothing tropical.

That was my point LOL. Thats why it was in bold. Come on Luis. I know the difference between cold core and warm core lows by now. ROTFLMAO!!!

[cycloneye]

Johnnathan I posted those words for newbies that may not know about warm and cold cores as I know you haved made big progress at the tropical weather area in the past 2 years.

[Rainband]

Thanks Luis

[wxman57]

I don't know what GFS they're looking at, but the 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z GFS today show no surface low developing in the NW Caribbean on Sunday and moving across the Keys on Monday. Here's the 12Z run for 18Z Mon:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

Just an area of precip associated with a slow-moving upper-level low across the SE Gulf.

[Dean4Storms]

I "think" they are seeing this, but not sure.


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html