I'm still on vacation, but noticed this TCFA from the JTWC on a system forming in the Arabian Sea. Tomorrow night I'll return home, so at that point I'll update the website. Regardless, here's the information for this invest.
May 04, 2004 @ 1730Z
Invest 92A
11.8N 72.9E
35 mph
1000 mb
Code: Select all
WTIO21 PGTW 041300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041251Z MAY 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4N6 73.3E3 TO 13.5N9 70.4E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0 72.9E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 11.5N7 74.6E7,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0 72.9E8, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE ON A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 051300Z9.//
NNNNAlso to note, along with Invest 92A, there is Invests 92B, 93S, and 97S. You can check out the NRL's website for more information at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Once again, I'll update the webpage sometime late tomorrow night.
Cheers!
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