Tropical Cyclone 23S forms...

[Typhoon_Willie]

in the South Indian Ocean! So after a lull in the action a couple of storms fire up!


WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050951ZMAY04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 8.7S5 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 8.8S6 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 8.9S7 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 9.2S1 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 9.4S3 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051130Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC REPORTS AT DIEGO GARCIA SHOW
STEADILY INCREASING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH THE
051355Z9 OBSERVATION REPORTING 20 KNOTS AND A DROP OF OVER
2 MB OF PRESSURE IN 24 HOURS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 23S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION OFFSET BY MARGINAL SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, AND WBAI ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
NOGAPS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER DUE TO POOR INITIALIZAITON.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 050951ZMAY04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 051000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9,
060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.//

NNNN

[Wnghs2007]

WOW...my wish to that star last night came true...I need to wish to stars more...>LOL

[cycloneye]

Well there is something to track in the tropics after a big lull and this serves as a warmup for what the atlantic will have later on and we will track.But I hope that this cyclone doesn't affect any land in the Arabian sea.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Regarding the one in the Arabian see I hope not either Cycloneye but unfortunately it is land locked...