United States Landfalling Hurricane Project Question

[KatDaddy]

Not quite sure I understand this new site by from forecaster William Gray for the 2004 listings.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp

For example I live in Galveston County thus I zoom into the Upper Texas Coast. Next I zoom into Galveston County and select the information icon and select Galveston County.

The following information is returned:

County Name Information
County GALVESTON
Region_Name Region 1
Region_2000_Population 5899658
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 530
Named Storms (1900-1999) 57
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 35
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 15
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 56% (45%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 38% (30%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) 19% (15%)
IH Return Period 6.700
Subregion 1e
Subregion_2000_Population 4246955
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 97
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 10.8% (8.7%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 7.2% (5.8%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) 3.6% (2.9%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_1.xls

The question is.....what is meant by 2004 Region Prob...38% chance for a hurricane? I notice the same precentage is for Galveston to Brownsville.

Also if you select the Region File link to the spreadsheet it contains execellent stats up to 1999.....at least for Zone 1.

[mf_dolphin]

Looks like he gives teh probability for named storms(NS) hurricanes (H) and intense hurricanes (IH) at both the region and sub-region sections. Here's the data for my county.

County PINELLAS
Region_Name Region 5
Region_2000_Population 3819848
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 373
Named Storms (1900-1999) 23
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 5
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 3
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 34% (20%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 14% (8%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) 5% (3%)
IH Return Period 33.300
Subregion 5b
Subregion_2000_Population 1920430
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 64
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 5.8% (3.4%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 2.3% (1.4%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) 0.9% (0.5%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_5.xls

[MWatkins]

Hey Kat...

The regional probablility is the same for any specific portion of the listed regions. Basically, just about all but the extreme eastern portion of Texas (Rio Grande river through Harris county) has a 38% chance of experiencing a landfall someplace in that region, according to the study.

Interesting that they think the adjacent region, Region 2, only has a 9% chance of experiencing a hurricane according to the site.

MW

[Rainband]

Good question Kat. Thanks MW for the explaination

[KatDaddy]

Its very general for a large area. Dr Gray's first attempt at narrowing down a specific area for a landfall. Surprised most of Texas has decent chance compared to other areas. Interestingly enough Gary Gray's 2004 seasonal forecast points toward S TX as a threat.

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/season.html

In addition even though many do not agree, the Weather Research Center gives Texas a 60% for a landfall.

It will be very interesting if a storm does make landfall along the Texas Coast and where that landfall will be.

After doing research since 1900 I personally feel the Upper Texas Coast is vunerable this year. We are in our longest timespan since direct affects from a major hurricane.

On the flipside one could argue Tampa-St Pete will be hit. Its been an
incredibly long time since they had a direct hit with Jacksonville, FLA and Savannah, Georgia not far behind.

[KatDaddy]

Carla 61 to Alicia 83

[mf_dolphin]

KatDaddy it's fine with me if the Upper Texas coast breaks it's hurricane drought before we do here in the Tampa area.

[KatDaddy]

Being a homeowner and new (first) baby expected Aug 2nd, I do not want one at all. I can see it now....on the way to the hospital during a hurricane.....no way no fun!

[MWatkins]

Being a homeowner and new (first) baby expected Aug 2nd, I do not want one at all. I can see it now....on the way to the hospital during a hurricane.....no way no fun!

My youngest son was born a week after hurricane Georges pased south of here in 1998.

Not a lot of fun arranging for hospital stays and protecting the house too.

Hope you stay safe this season.

MW

[Rainband]

Hope you stay safe this season.

MW

Ditto to all the S2K family!!

[KatDaddy]

......as reality sets in.......wow my wife and I are becoming parents as 36. No matter what age its an experience. The kicker is we discussed having kids when we dated 8 years ago.......no way, no kids. Late last Summer that changed dramatically and now here we are. We planned it, it happened very fast, we were shocked & happy, and now reality. Definitely a positive life changing experience.

[mf_dolphin]

Just remember low pressure systems can trigger child birth Congrats on the coming baby! I'm still trying to get Chad and Jenn to start on the second one

[KatDaddy]

Unless you have twins which we will not thankfully. We heard one heartbeat including my wifes......not 2 like on Friends tonight

[AussieMark]

Being a homeowner and new (first) baby expected Aug 2nd, I do not want one at all. I can see it now....on the way to the hospital during a hurricane.....no way no fun!

My youngest son was born a week after hurricane Georges pased south of here in 1998.

Not a lot of fun arranging for hospital stays and protecting the house too.

Hope you stay safe this season.

MW

Where u at MWatkins

[wxman57]

Its very general for a large area. Dr Gray's first attempt at narrowing down a specific area for a landfall. Surprised most of Texas has decent chance compared to other areas. Interestingly enough Gary Gray's 2004 seasonal forecast points toward S TX as a threat.

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/season.html

In addition even though many do not agree, the Weather Research Center gives Texas a 60% for a landfall.

It will be very interesting if a storm does make landfall along the Texas Coast and where that landfall will be.

You might be interested to know that Jill Hasling of Wx Research Center was slated to present a paper on their OCSI (sunspot hurricane theory) at the AMS conference at 10:15am Wednesday. I got there early and talked to Dr. Gray about Jill and her father John Freeman. His comments were that they were "charlatans" - there's no relationship between the orbit of the Sun/Earth and sunspots to regional impacts and storm numbers. I was all set to ask her about many questionable "verifications" of their theory. Like, for example, she considers Gordon which hit north of Tampa and moved NE across south Georgia in 2000 to be a landfall in the LA-AL region. Does cirrus outflow count? I found numerous such "verifications" in her paper.

Well, 10:15am came and Dr. Gray, Chris Landea, and lots of top hurricane specialists were waiting for her and she never showed up! She was in Houston attending the offshore trade conference. I know that many there were prepared to pepper her with questions about her junk science. Even Dr. Gray was disappointed she didn't show, as her whole paper compared her forecasts to his rather than to what actually happened. I added up her storm number totals and found she was much worse than climatology.

Also, that 60% chance of Texas being hit is straight climatology. Look at the top post here - 58% of the region from Brownsville to Houston being hit is climo. Add in the rest of the coast and she's basically saying same as climo. What's the big news there? Last year they said that there was a 73% chance that a storm would affect the Gulf and it was big news - but that's well BELOW climo.

[wxman57]

Not quite sure I understand this new site by from forecaster William Gray for the 2004 listings.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp

For example I live in Galveston County thus I zoom into the Upper Texas Coast. Next I zoom into Galveston County and select the information icon and select Galveston County.

The following information is returned:

County Name Information
County GALVESTON
Region_Name Region 1
Region_2000_Population 5899658
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 530
Named Storms (1900-1999) 57
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 35
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 15
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 56% (45%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 38% (30%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) 19% (15%)
IH Return Period 6.700
Subregion 1e
Subregion_2000_Population 4246955
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 97
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 10.8% (8.7%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 7.2% (5.8%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) 3.6% (2.9%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_1.xls

The question is.....what is meant by 2004 Region Prob...38% chance for a hurricane? I notice the same precentage is for Galveston to Brownsville.

Also if you select the Region File link to the spreadsheet it contains execellent stats up to 1999.....at least for Zone 1.

KatDaddy, you need to look at the SUBREGION data near the bottom, that's broken down by county. So the Houston/Galveston area has a 10.8% chance of being hit by a named storm, 7.2% of a hurricane, and 3.6% of a major hurricane.

[Amanzi]

I find it very interesting my county has a 0% chance of an intense hurricane landfall (thats a good thing)!

County Name Information
County FLAGLER
Region_Name Region 7
Region_2000_Population 4454373
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 574
Named Storms (1900-1999) 16
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 5
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 0
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 27% (16%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 8% (5%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) >0% (>0%)
IH Return Period >100
Subregion 7d
Subregion_2000_Population 384204
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 97
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 4.6% (2.7%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 1.4% (0.8%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) >0.0% (>0.0%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_7.xls

[KatDaddy]

The SUBREGION was the missing link. Thanks for the info. Thanks for being a member of Storm2k. I have learned much from your posts.

[chadtm80]

County Name Information
County VOLUSIA
Region_Name Region 7
Region_2000_Population 4454373
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 574
Named Storms (1900-1999) 16
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 5
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 0
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 27% (16%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 8% (5%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) >0% (>0%)
IH Return Period >100
Subregion 7c
Subregion_2000_Population 443343
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 72
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 3.4% (2.0%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 1.1% (0.6%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) >0.0% (>0.0%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_7.xls

[Stephanie]

My area (Atlantic City - Gloucester County where I live is just to the north)

County Name Information
County ATLANTIC
Region_Name Region 9
Region_2000_Population 4025812
Region_Coastal_Length (km) 527
Named Storms (1900-1999) 9
Hurricanes (1900-1999) 4
Intense Hurricanes (1900-1999) 0
2004 Region Prob. (NS) 15% (9%)
2004 Region Prob. (H) 7% (4%)
2004 Region Prob. (IH) >0% (>0%)
IH Return Period >100
Subregion 9e
Subregion_2000_Population 501316
Subregion_Coastal_Length (km) 84
2004 Subregion Prob. (NS) 2.4% (1.4%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (H) 1.1% (0.6%)
2004 Subregion Prob. (IH) >0.0% (>0.0%)
Region File http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Region_9.xls