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ACUS11 KWNS 071926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071926
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-072200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...AND FAR SERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 071926Z - 072200Z
ERN NEB...SERN SD...AND WRN IA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL
EXIST WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION.
AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR NRN MO WWD
INTO FAR SERN NEB AND WSWWD INTO N-CENTRAL KS. BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS KS/MO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WARM SECTOR CAPPED. HOWEVER...VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM OMAHA INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE OF SWLY FLOW AT 2 KM FROM
20 KT TO 30 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SERN
SD/ERN NEB THROUGH 00Z. IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET...TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20-00Z.
WITH VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE / 8-9 C/KM / THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD INTO WRN
IA AT 15-20 KT.