Will a Hurricane Hit Florida (or your town) This Year?

[MWatkins]

This comes up all the time, and rather than get burried in big old post, here's my attempt at answering te age-old question that seems to come up every season (BTW...I live in SE Florida and have since 1991, with the exception of 2 years in 1995 and 1996) as far as landfalls in Florida (and elsewhere) go.

In those 2 years I lived in Norman, Oklahoma while attending the University of Oklahoma college of Geosciences with a major in Meteorology. The cool thing about OU is the NSSL and SPC were right there in town. Why? Well for one thing, central Oklahoma is the most active tornado region on the face of the planet. Tornado frequency maps have central Oklahoma painted in a bull's-eye, yet for some reason, the largest city in Oklahoma (OK city) seemed immune to tornados. We talked about it all the time in class, it was only a matter of when, not if, a big one would affect the city.

5 years ago, almost to the day, on May 3rd 1999, you've all seen what happened to Moore, OK, and parts of OKC. An F5 leveled thousands of homes and businesses and killed 40 people.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/storms/19990503/

Southern Florida is by far the most likely target for tropical systems in the US. There are several reasons:

1. It sticks out like a sore thumb into the tropical Atlantic.
2. As Derek mentioned it can get hit from both Atlantic westward-moving hurricanes and from systems recurving out of the Caribbean.
3. It is surrounded by some of the warmest water in the basin.

And, not coincidentally, the National Hurricane Center (now the Tropical Prediction Center) is located in Southeastern Florida.

Lucky for us (and bad for them), we have the Dominican Republic (which destroyed Debby in 1999), Puerto Rico (which hammered Georges the year before) and western Cuba to disrupt systems coming out of the Atlantic. But even with these safety blocks in place, we narrowly averted a huge problem when Floyd turned north in 1999, and when David failed to intensify in 1979, and even in 1993 when Emily caught a weakness between 2 ridges and went up to NC when all of the forecast models at the time suggested another Andrew-like track into southern Florida. Michelle made a hard right-turn in 2001 and cut between Florida and Cuba as a major Hurricane coming up out of the Caribeban. We were even fortunate with Andrew, as the storm surge occurred over mostly unpopulated land...a track even 10 miles further to the north could have produced far more devastating results than we saw (not to minimize what occurred, it could have been much, much worse).

Florida has been extraordinarily lucky in the past 50 years, with of course the exception of Andrew. For example, in the period of 1947 to 1950, Broward county experienced 6 hurricanes in 4 years, including 2 majors. In 39 years since 1965, there has been 1, Andrew. Will the luck run out this season? Maybe, or maybe next year, or it may not happen for another 20 years. But the luck will run out, you can bet on it. And when it does, it will likely destroy the housing market, bring unprecedented damage to the coastal regions, make it almost impossible to find windstorm insurance, and disrupt millions of lives. Loss of life will hopefully be minimized, as long as long lines of cars don't end up stuck trying to get out.

People often think of Andrew as the Big One. Hurricane Andrew was NOT the big one. It was big, sure, but not the big one. Had the great hurricane of 1926 hit in 1992, that would have been the big one. Andrew moved fast, was relatively easy to forecast, and was strong long before it came into Florida.

What this does not mean is that Wilmington NC, or New Orleans, or Galveston WONT get hit. They will, over time, get hit too, maybe even this year. There probably isn't a 10 mile wide stretch of US coastline south of 30N that hasn't been hit by a hurricane at some point in history. Just as Florida has been fortunate, so has the US as a whole, the east coast in particular.

I tend not to spend a lot of time on speculating whether a season will be active or not as a whole, most of my energy is devoted to determining what a developing system will do and where it will go once it develops, because each system, just like each season, is distinct and different. So many small scale variables can affect a storms ultimate path and development curve that I think forecasting a landfall months in advance down to a 20 mile section of coastline is almost impossible.

So, all any of us can do is:

1. Have a plan
2. Pay attention to the tropics
3. Make good decisions if/when our community is threatened.

All of this other stuff is something to do to pass the time in between.

MW

[Guest]

Well said MWatkins.. I could not agree with you more, in fact I posted a similar response I my thread about Recent 2K Polls before I read this one about how South Fla has dodged major bullets & you took it even further by talking about Michelle & Emily,Hispaniola played a role in killing off Debby,so many times luck has been on our side similar to OKC & tornadoes.

We were relatively lucky with Andrew as well because as you mentioned any further north & the damage would have been triple.

I don't want to preach doom & gloom but down here or along the GOM,U.S.EC or populated Islands in the Carib its good to be hurricane savvy & hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

[*StOrmsPr*]

Well said MWatkins.. I could not agree with you more, in fact I posted a similar response I my thread about Recent 2K Polls before I read this one about how South Fla has dodged major bullets & you took it even further by talking about Michelle & Emily,Hispaniola played a role in killing off Debby,so many times luck has been on our side similar to OKC & tornadoes.

We were relatively lucky with Andrew as well because as you mentioned any further north & the damage would have been triple.

I don't want to preach doom & gloom but down here or along the GOM,U.S.EC or populated Islands in the Carib its good to be hurricane savvy & hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Agree ! here in PR
the last cat 5 1928 ( San Felipe 2)
the last cat 4 1867 (San Narciso), and Hugo weakening cat 4 to cat 3 1989
the last cat 3 1998 ( Georges)

[vbhoutex]

There is no doom and gloom in your post MIA, JUST PLAIN COMMON SENSE. Way too many of those potentially in harms way(your list)say "it hasn't happpened here in my lifetime so I won't worry about it" and are not prepared for the worst or even the least that could happen. I keep at least a basic kit around all year around, much to the chagrin of my family. Hopefully they will never have to thank me for having it.

[Stormsfury]

Let's also remind people that Andrew was a very compact storm (much like the 1935 Labor Day Keys Hurricane) and affected a general mass site that wasn't very large in comparison to most hurricanes ...

As already pointed out, about 50-100 miles further north, the damage would have likely been tripled (or possibly in the $100 billion range)... a larger storm in diameter would have spread out the damage path more ... a slower moving storm would have also done the same and quite likely, more flooding problems would have resulted as well (which did occur in Louisiana) ... with Andrew, it was shear wind power ...

SF

[Guest]

It doesnt even have to 50 - 100 miles further north.

Just 25- 30 miles further north sits downtown Miami,Miami Beach & all its condos & a much more heavily populated area than Homestead/Fla City.As Stormsfury pointed out Andrew was a compact hurricane like the 1935 Labor Day Cane & was a fast mover.

The "Big One" IMO would move much slower & be the size of Floyd when Floyd was max strength or the size of Gilbert.

The day I am staring down the eye of a monster like that, I will need to have my hurricane kit fully stocked.

& a clean pair of shorts.

[Rainband]

and Pray like you've never prayed before

[dixiebreeze]

Mike, excellent post with lots of very good reminders of past tropical storms. We have to remember, too, that even a hurricane that just skims the coast can cause millions in damage, loss of life and snarled evacuations. I'm talking about Elena in '85. She was considered a minimal 'cane, but her results were in the moderate (at least) category for the Fla. gulf coast and Panhandle.

[Rainband]

Mike, excellent post with lots of very good reminders of past tropical storms. We have to remember, too, that even a hurricane that just skims the coast can cause millions in damage, loss of life and snarled evacuations. I'm talking about Elena in '85. She was considered a minimal 'cane, but her results were in the moderate (at least) category for the Fla. gulf coast and Panhandle.

Excellent example and very very true

[Josephine96]

I think Florida will get hit this year. We have dodged major bullets.

Gabrielle just missed being a cane in 2001 when she came in from the Gulf, Isabel like most storms turned. and there have been several other close calls..

I am not just saying Florida will get hit because I live here either lol..

[robag]

I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Upper Keys will be hit this year. I have been here for 18 years and I have never felt like this before. Thank God my husband finished installing Rolladan accordian steel shutters. At least my windows will be protected!

[Dave C]

Another thing to remember is Florida's land mass is a penninsula which is also very flat. This allows storms to move right in at full intensity or even intensifing without much disruption to the storms circulation (Andrew) and the gulf stream(85-88deg.) lies offshore east to give that extra kick. Many times storms landfalling in other gulf states or up north in Georgia, SC and NC are weakening or steady state at landfall and pull in dry air from inland causing the second eyewall passage to be weaker. One can only imagine what would have happened if Georges didn't slam Haiti and Cuba and headed straight in with that upper-low that marched along to it's west providing the excellant outflow conditions over the storm.

[Derek Ortt]

Georges also would have been stronger had the SAL not caused the storm to weaken dramatically before St Martin landfall. had it entered the Carib as a strong 4 or a 5, then it likely would have been a 3 at the Keys

[Guest]

Hurricane season is great isn't it, when a storm is headed your way it is such a mix of emotions,everything from thrilling to anxious to fright to anticipation.

It really is nature's rollercoaster ride.

Also,1 day is storm is going to follow almost the same path as Georges,only instead of impacting every big island in the Carib,it going to stay about 100 miles north of all the islands,move W/MW along the Bahama chain & slam into South Fla..Georges was yet another case of South Fla dodging a bullet.

Imagine if Georges would have taken the route I just described,SAL or no SAL it would have been a CAT 4 or 5,look at how well it held together despite the fact that it traversed every large Island,imagine if he would have stayed just off shore..He had great upper air support.

Man Aug & Sept cant get here fast enough.

[Dean4Storms]

Great post and I readily agree. How many named storms have we been averaging the past 10 years and yet peninsula FL has dodged most evey bullet? That alone is a glaring statistic as we move into another hurricane season forecasted to be just as active. The luck FL has experienced thus far during this period is on borrowed time!

[Guest]

Yeah Dean its been 1 lucky break after the next, its in a way mind boggling,even the ones that have come close or hit could have been so much worse ie Georges & Andrew,not to down play what happened with Andrew but like MWatkins,Stormsfury,others & myself pointed out, a little further north & enough said.

Even the Irene scenario could have been worse,imagine if Irene would have had Michelle like strength.. I know..I know I am imagining alot of scenarios that did'nt happen & using alot should of,would of, could of but I think most of you see where I am going with this.

We are on borrowed time.

[Rainband]

Imagine if Isabel wouldn't have turned. It would have covered our whole state Not to mention, the turn weakened her..no turn and we would have had a monster to deal with.

[Guest]

The track I described Georges taking if he would have stayed north of the islands actually would look alot like the '26 hurricane's track,only the 1 I decribed would be a hair south of that.

[Rainband]

This is the worst case scenario for our area!!

[Guest]

Yep piling lots of water right into Tampa Bay,not good.