2004 names that you believe will be the big one(s)
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dixiebreeze
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cycloneye
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Bumping this thread to see more opinions about which name or names will be the big one(s) this season.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed May 12, 2004 1:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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HurricaneBill
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Alex-- Alex is Andrew's replacement name, and Andrew was Allen's replacement name. Both were Category 5 hurricanes. Could their destructive nature be passed on to Alex?
Bonnie-- Bonnie has been used 4 times. Each time, Bonnie made it to hurricane status. 1998 was her at her strongest. Since 1986, she's been going up a category. Does this mean Category 4 in 2004? Could Bonnie be taking another shot at retirement?
Charley-- 3 out of 4 times Charley has been a hurricane. He came close but just missed in 1998.
Danielle-- Out of 4 times, Danielle has only been a hurricane once. (1998) However, the Atlantic has not had a major hurricane beginning with a "D" since Diana in 1984.
Earl-- A hurricane 3 out of 4 times.
Frances-- Possibly facing a forced retirement after 2004. Frances might try to go out with a bang. Odds are in her favor. Frances has been used 7 times, 5 as a hurricane, 3 as a major hurricane.
Gaston-- Georges's replacement. Often a replacement name doesn't become a big storm right off the bat. "Michelle" was an exception, however.
Hermine-- Only used twice. Both times as a tropical storm.
Ivan-- Used twice. Both times a hurricane. Ivan's in a favorable spot. Since 2000, the "I" name has been a major hurricane. Isaac (4), Iris (4), Isidore (3), and Isabel (5). Plus, the last "I" name used to NOT become a hurricane was Iris in 1989.
Jeanne-- Used twice. Both as a Category 2 hurricane.
Karl-- Used twice as a hurricane.
Lisa-- Used one as a hurricane.
Matthew-- Mitch's replacement name.
Nicole-- Used once as a hurricane
Bonnie-- Bonnie has been used 4 times. Each time, Bonnie made it to hurricane status. 1998 was her at her strongest. Since 1986, she's been going up a category. Does this mean Category 4 in 2004? Could Bonnie be taking another shot at retirement?
Charley-- 3 out of 4 times Charley has been a hurricane. He came close but just missed in 1998.
Danielle-- Out of 4 times, Danielle has only been a hurricane once. (1998) However, the Atlantic has not had a major hurricane beginning with a "D" since Diana in 1984.
Earl-- A hurricane 3 out of 4 times.
Frances-- Possibly facing a forced retirement after 2004. Frances might try to go out with a bang. Odds are in her favor. Frances has been used 7 times, 5 as a hurricane, 3 as a major hurricane.
Gaston-- Georges's replacement. Often a replacement name doesn't become a big storm right off the bat. "Michelle" was an exception, however.
Hermine-- Only used twice. Both times as a tropical storm.
Ivan-- Used twice. Both times a hurricane. Ivan's in a favorable spot. Since 2000, the "I" name has been a major hurricane. Isaac (4), Iris (4), Isidore (3), and Isabel (5). Plus, the last "I" name used to NOT become a hurricane was Iris in 1989.
Jeanne-- Used twice. Both as a Category 2 hurricane.
Karl-- Used twice as a hurricane.
Lisa-- Used one as a hurricane.
Matthew-- Mitch's replacement name.
Nicole-- Used once as a hurricane
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Guest
OK, here goes...
Bonnie will present a potential problem, possibly as a tropical storm, for the Gulf. Lots and lots of rain
Danielle will be a problem for the East Coast from central South Carolina up to Hatteras, either as a tropical storm or a Cat 1 to 2 hurricane. Lots of rain and significant beach erosion.
Frances will a major hurricane with a potential landfall from Wilmington to just north of Hatteras. This could be the one to look out for. Could be a real problem for the NC Outer Banks which could see a lot of damage as well as the reappearance of the inlet that cut through the island a year ago. Inland, good potential for wind damage and flooding as far inland as Goldsboro to Raleigh.
No real science here, just a hunch.
Bonnie will present a potential problem, possibly as a tropical storm, for the Gulf. Lots and lots of rain
Danielle will be a problem for the East Coast from central South Carolina up to Hatteras, either as a tropical storm or a Cat 1 to 2 hurricane. Lots of rain and significant beach erosion.
Frances will a major hurricane with a potential landfall from Wilmington to just north of Hatteras. This could be the one to look out for. Could be a real problem for the NC Outer Banks which could see a lot of damage as well as the reappearance of the inlet that cut through the island a year ago. Inland, good potential for wind damage and flooding as far inland as Goldsboro to Raleigh.
No real science here, just a hunch.
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Brent
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Here I go:
Alex-Most likely a Gulf or Caribbean Tropical Storm, not a big deal
Bonnie-Hurricane that will be a fish
Charley-Will flood the Gulf coast(Texas or Louisiana), only be a Tropical Storm
Danielle-This sounds like a nice name. I can't forsee this as a major deadly hurricane, sorry.
Earl-Oh dear. This storm was a pain in the *** in 1998(remember, supposed to hit Louisiana and it kept shifting east, ended up hitting Panama City), I think this one will be a forecasting nightmare again
Frances-Bad storm. Deadly, devastating to someone(maybe not the U.S. though)
Gaston-Ick. This name sucks. It replaced Georges, so something could come of it, but I think it'll be a fish
Hermine-What kind of name is this? In 1998, this was a puny tropical storm that hit the Gulf. I think it'll be a puny storm again that threatens land, maybe not the U.S. though
Ivan-Oh dear. This sounds like the one. In 1998 it was a fish, but this sounds like a big one.
Jeanne-Sounds like a nice storm, probably a fish
Karl-Fish
Lisa-Sounds like a sweet name but that can be decieving
Matthew-Uh oh. This name replaced Mitch, and to be honest, Matthew sounds more threatening. Someone on the U.S. coastline will feel this intimately, and I think we will get to it.
Won't go any farther than that as I don't think we will get there.
Alex-Most likely a Gulf or Caribbean Tropical Storm, not a big deal
Bonnie-Hurricane that will be a fish
Charley-Will flood the Gulf coast(Texas or Louisiana), only be a Tropical Storm
Danielle-This sounds like a nice name. I can't forsee this as a major deadly hurricane, sorry.
Earl-Oh dear. This storm was a pain in the *** in 1998(remember, supposed to hit Louisiana and it kept shifting east, ended up hitting Panama City), I think this one will be a forecasting nightmare again
Frances-Bad storm. Deadly, devastating to someone(maybe not the U.S. though)
Gaston-Ick. This name sucks. It replaced Georges, so something could come of it, but I think it'll be a fish
Hermine-What kind of name is this? In 1998, this was a puny tropical storm that hit the Gulf. I think it'll be a puny storm again that threatens land, maybe not the U.S. though
Ivan-Oh dear. This sounds like the one. In 1998 it was a fish, but this sounds like a big one.
Jeanne-Sounds like a nice storm, probably a fish
Karl-Fish
Lisa-Sounds like a sweet name but that can be decieving
Matthew-Uh oh. This name replaced Mitch, and to be honest, Matthew sounds more threatening. Someone on the U.S. coastline will feel this intimately, and I think we will get to it.
Won't go any farther than that as I don't think we will get there.
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vbhoutex
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Alex-Possibly Allison like, but not for TX. Hopefully not nearly as destructive as Allison and no 35" in 12 hours but a slow mover dumping quite a bit of rain(20" in some areas) from MS coast to FL panhandle. Early June.
Bonnie-A Carribean birth to a GOMer strong TS finally hitting NO head on from the SE to NW passing directly over the NO metro area as strong CAT2. A HUGE WAKE UP CALL FOR THE CRESCENT CITY. Late June to early July.
Charley -A TS that douses FL peninsula moving slowly coming out of the N Bahamas. No real wind damage, but major flooding in some areas. Will break the drought in C FL. As it moves back into GOM he makes a quick turn and comes into the Pahhandle S of Tallahassee as a strong TS. Mid July
Danielle-A Carribean storm which comes through the N Leewards as a CAT2 and douses PR while hitting VI with CAT2 winds and copius rains also then out to sea. Early August.
Earl-A fish that reaches CAT3 as it nears, but misses Outer Banks. Early August, maybe almost the same time as Danielle, but further N then curving back NE.
Frances A force to be reckoned with! Begins just E of the islands and moves into the E Carribean as a strong TS growing to CAT2 strength as it approaches Jamaica. As it comes through the Yucatan Channel on a NWerly course brushing the NE tip of the Peninsula she attains CAT3 status and continues strengthening. Unfortunately landfall as a CAT4 bordering on CAT5 anywhere from Kingsville, TX to Cameron LA. Possibly a Northern MX storm also. Late August.
Gaston-The first true CV storm of the season and an East Coast skirter with CAT2 strength as it skirts the E Coast from near Savannah to the Outer Banks. Some areas will get CAT1 squalls for a little while, but not too much to contend with overall, more of a scare than anything. Early September.
Hermine-Definitely a Carribean storm, not much to deal with except mucho rain. Track very unsure. Early September right after Gastondeveloping from another CV wave.
IvanAnother force to be reckoned with!! A Classic CV system which reaches CAT5 status near the same area Andrew started strengthening. However takes a more Northerly track than Andrew looking like he will head for the Carolinas. Holds that track till the Bermuda high builds back in and pushes him as a CAT5 storm to landfall in the Saint Augustine to Savannah , GA area, the first MAJOR in that area in decades! Fortunately, weakens rapidly after landfall in the sparsely populated areas of the middle GA coast, but still causes major damage from flooding in GA and SC. Mid-September to late September.
Jeanne-Another GOMer storm that comes up out of the NW Carribean. CAT1 at landfall near Brownsville, TX after a trek across the Yucatan Peninsula. First week of October.
Karl-Develops just N of the VI and stays a fish. Reaches almost CAT1 as it passes E of Bermuda and becomes Extratropical a day later. 2nd week of October.
Lisa-A low rider TS that skirts the Northern S America coast before dying as it goes into Panama. Mid October.
MatthewWill be talked about for decades to come. Develops in Carribean S of Cuba and starts N radpidly developing to CAT3 strength before it passes over Cuba on a NNWerly course into the GOM about 100 miles W of Key West. As he moves over the GOM he strengthens to CAT4 status before being turned back NE by an early season cold front which brings him in at high CAT3 or low CAT4 strength right over the Tampa/ St. Pete area. This will be the long dreaded major coming at FL from the SW with DEVASTATING STORM SURGE from Ft. Myers to the Tampa Bay area and major wind damage from Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete. By the time he traverses FL in a NE direction he is down to TS strength as he exits at Daytona Beach and heads out to sea. Late October.
Nicole-Late season(mid November) TS that develops from Cut Off low over the W GOM and rides the next approaching front NE across the GOM to landfall with 50 mph winds in the Panama City area.
That works out to 14/8/4 which are not my numbers but is based on some 50 years along the Gulf Coast observing the tropics. I guess you could call some of it "Climatology" only because of the observations over the years that brought this tome about.
Bonnie-A Carribean birth to a GOMer strong TS finally hitting NO head on from the SE to NW passing directly over the NO metro area as strong CAT2. A HUGE WAKE UP CALL FOR THE CRESCENT CITY. Late June to early July.
Charley -A TS that douses FL peninsula moving slowly coming out of the N Bahamas. No real wind damage, but major flooding in some areas. Will break the drought in C FL. As it moves back into GOM he makes a quick turn and comes into the Pahhandle S of Tallahassee as a strong TS. Mid July
Danielle-A Carribean storm which comes through the N Leewards as a CAT2 and douses PR while hitting VI with CAT2 winds and copius rains also then out to sea. Early August.
Earl-A fish that reaches CAT3 as it nears, but misses Outer Banks. Early August, maybe almost the same time as Danielle, but further N then curving back NE.
Frances A force to be reckoned with! Begins just E of the islands and moves into the E Carribean as a strong TS growing to CAT2 strength as it approaches Jamaica. As it comes through the Yucatan Channel on a NWerly course brushing the NE tip of the Peninsula she attains CAT3 status and continues strengthening. Unfortunately landfall as a CAT4 bordering on CAT5 anywhere from Kingsville, TX to Cameron LA. Possibly a Northern MX storm also. Late August.
Gaston-The first true CV storm of the season and an East Coast skirter with CAT2 strength as it skirts the E Coast from near Savannah to the Outer Banks. Some areas will get CAT1 squalls for a little while, but not too much to contend with overall, more of a scare than anything. Early September.
Hermine-Definitely a Carribean storm, not much to deal with except mucho rain. Track very unsure. Early September right after Gastondeveloping from another CV wave.
IvanAnother force to be reckoned with!! A Classic CV system which reaches CAT5 status near the same area Andrew started strengthening. However takes a more Northerly track than Andrew looking like he will head for the Carolinas. Holds that track till the Bermuda high builds back in and pushes him as a CAT5 storm to landfall in the Saint Augustine to Savannah , GA area, the first MAJOR in that area in decades! Fortunately, weakens rapidly after landfall in the sparsely populated areas of the middle GA coast, but still causes major damage from flooding in GA and SC. Mid-September to late September.
Jeanne-Another GOMer storm that comes up out of the NW Carribean. CAT1 at landfall near Brownsville, TX after a trek across the Yucatan Peninsula. First week of October.
Karl-Develops just N of the VI and stays a fish. Reaches almost CAT1 as it passes E of Bermuda and becomes Extratropical a day later. 2nd week of October.
Lisa-A low rider TS that skirts the Northern S America coast before dying as it goes into Panama. Mid October.
MatthewWill be talked about for decades to come. Develops in Carribean S of Cuba and starts N radpidly developing to CAT3 strength before it passes over Cuba on a NNWerly course into the GOM about 100 miles W of Key West. As he moves over the GOM he strengthens to CAT4 status before being turned back NE by an early season cold front which brings him in at high CAT3 or low CAT4 strength right over the Tampa/ St. Pete area. This will be the long dreaded major coming at FL from the SW with DEVASTATING STORM SURGE from Ft. Myers to the Tampa Bay area and major wind damage from Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete. By the time he traverses FL in a NE direction he is down to TS strength as he exits at Daytona Beach and heads out to sea. Late October.
Nicole-Late season(mid November) TS that develops from Cut Off low over the W GOM and rides the next approaching front NE across the GOM to landfall with 50 mph winds in the Panama City area.
That works out to 14/8/4 which are not my numbers but is based on some 50 years along the Gulf Coast observing the tropics. I guess you could call some of it "Climatology" only because of the observations over the years that brought this tome about.
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FWBHurricane
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Rainband
vbhoutex wrote:[
MatthewWill be talked about for decades to come. Develops in Carribean S of Cuba and starts N radpidly developing to CAT3 strength before it passes over Cuba on a NNWerly course into the GOM about 100 miles W of Key West. As he moves over the GOM he strengthens to CAT4 status before being turned back NE by an early season cold front which brings him in at high CAT3 or low CAT4 strength right over the Tampa/ St. Pete area. This will be the long dreaded major coming at FL from the SW with DEVASTATING STORM SURGE from Ft. Myers to the Tampa Bay area and major wind damage from Sarasota to Tampa/St. Pete. By the time he traverses FL in a NE direction he is down to TS strength as he exits at Daytona Beach and heads out to sea. Late October.
I don't like that Prediction
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Storm Man
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CHARLEY!
CHARLEY Could Be "The Doomsday Hurricane" Im Warning About!
July 31st 2004 "The Next Blue Moon"
Let's Waite And See?
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July 31st 2004 "The Next Blue Moon"
Let's Waite And See?
http://rockreaders.com
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cycloneye
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Bumping this poll to see a few more opinions about which names will be the big ones.
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Stormsfury
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Brent wrote:Here I go:
Alex-Most likely a Gulf or Caribbean Tropical Storm, not a big deal
Bonnie-Hurricane that will be a fish
Charley-Will flood the Gulf coast(Texas or Louisiana), only be a Tropical Storm
Danielle-This sounds like a nice name. I can't forsee this as a major deadly hurricane, sorry.
Earl-Oh dear. This storm was a pain in the *** in 1998(remember, supposed to hit Louisiana and it kept shifting east, ended up hitting Panama City), I think this one will be a forecasting nightmare again
Frances-Bad storm. Deadly, devastating to someone(maybe not the U.S. though)
Gaston-Ick. This name sucks. It replaced Georges, so something could come of it, but I think it'll be a fish
Hermine-What kind of name is this? In 1998, this was a puny tropical storm that hit the Gulf. I think it'll be a puny storm again that threatens land, maybe not the U.S. though
Ivan-Oh dear. This sounds like the one. In 1998 it was a fish, but this sounds like a big one.
Jeanne-Sounds like a nice storm, probably a fish
Karl-Fish
Lisa-Sounds like a sweet name but that can be decieving
Matthew-Uh oh. This name replaced Mitch, and to be honest, Matthew sounds more threatening. Someone on the U.S. coastline will feel this intimately, and I think we will get to it.
Won't go any farther than that as I don't think we will get there.
The remnants of Hermine generated a band of stationary thunderstorms over portions of Charleston, Dorchester and Berkeley County which produced 9" of rain in just under 3 hours, and caused severe flooding during a time of heavy drought ... water was in some places 5-6 FEET deep. Hermine, weak, most definitely, but the PWAT's and increased SFC moisture was beyond helpful ...
SF
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