Models Update

[Anonymous]

I was going to post this under my EPAC thread but after noticing what the models are now showing in the SW CARIB i've decided to make a new one....

As I mentioned yesterday, the ECMWF and NOGAPS joined the UKMET in showing development in the Eastern Pacific. The latest runs are still forecasting development. In fact, the UKMET is now showing a Mexico landfall at 144H and the NOGAPS is showing a clear threat to the coast. The ECMWF is a lot slower than the Euro and UKMET and the storm is still a ways away from the coast at day 7. The GFS still isn't showing true development, but instead it simply shows 3 areas of low pressure.

Now for the Caribbean....

The latest ECMWF run is suddenly showing the development of a low pressure system coming north out of Panama before taking the system NE towards E Cuba/Dominican Republic. NOGAPS is showing development by day 6. The GFS is forecasting the development of a 1009MB low in the SW CARIB by day 9.
--------------------------------------

The models may just be developing phantom systems like MGC said in another thread, especially when talking about the Caribbean low. But as with the disturbances in the EPAC, consistency is the key. I am a bit more concerned about EPAC development for obvious reasons....the models have been hinting on development for three days and now a couple of them are showing a threat to Mexico. The models are just beginning to show a low in the SW CARIB so we have a lot of time to monitor that area. These are just simple observations and I am by no means forecasting development at this point. I need to see some clear signs of development (and even a low in the CARIB).

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the model updates, Jason. Very interesting for mid-May. It is getting very juicy in the Caribbean lately, as well as the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

We often get broad lows in the area this time of year due to the dangling of the monsoon trough. However, we'll need to get rid of the shear before thsi ebcomes anything more than a broad low

[dixiebreeze]

Is this the NOGAPS low you mentioned:

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

[Anonymous]

Is this the NOGAPS low you mentioned:

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/mode ... .conus.gif

Nope...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

[Anonymous]

We often get broad lows in the area this time of year due to the dangling of the monsoon trough. However, we'll need to get rid of the shear before thsi ebcomes anything more than a broad low

Agreed

[Anonymous]

ECMWF...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... s!latest!/

[dixiebreeze]

Jason, OK, thanks for the link. Don't think anyone should be too cavalier about low pressure in early June -- though I agree shear has to minimize for development.

[Rainband]

Here is the NOGAPS 12 hours later. Like Derek said. The low is broader

[Anonymous]

Thats the wrong date Dixie....you may need to update your favorites or something.

[Aquawind]

We often get broad lows in the area this time of year due to the dangling of the monsoon trough. However, we'll need to get rid of the shear before thsi ebcomes anything more than a broad low

Bingo..Mega Shear..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Anonymous]

Remember that the models are forecasting a decrease in shear. If the models were simply showing the development of a TC in a high shear environment, then the model would be almost worthless.

[Aquawind]

Remember that the models are forecasting a decrease in shear. If the models were simply showing the development of a TC in a high shear environment, then the model would be almost worthless.

Well Said..In general terms it looks like early season..

Look at the major shear weakening or not..woah..highly impressive and clearly not condusive for dev between 10-20N at all. We would have to see a major color change for development.

Aren't the facts associated with the Tendacy map more trustworthy than the freaked out Models for genesis? Of course it's a combination of facts used for forecasting. I am just curious how much weight to put into either map for possibilites..

[MGC]

Shear is way too high right now in both basins. EPAC will let up before W Car....tropical storm development not expected through Monday.....MGC

[Anonymous]

Aren't the facts associated with the Tendacy map more trustworthy than the freaked out Models for genesis? Of course it's a combination of facts used for forecasting. I am just curious how much weight to put into either map for possibilites..

Definitely...the tendency map tells us what is actually happening. Models don't handle shear very well. That is why intensity forecasts are often wrong. In fact, some experts believe that there is little to NO intensity skill with SHIPS being the exception.

[cycloneye]

Here is the NOGAPS 12 hours later. Like Derek said. The low is broader

Hey Johnnathan that is very old as you look at the date. But as others haved said shear is strong not only in the SW caribbean but in all the caribbean and tropical atlantic as the huge anticyclone in the atlantic at around 10n 35w has provoked the shear to expand as the upper winds move around the perifery of the anticyclone.And that same anticyclone at the same time is limiting convection at the ITCZ.

[Matthew5]

Look at that area near 8 north/85 west. The wind shear is less then 20 knots there.

[Anonymous]

Models are now coming into agreement with a track over Cuba. Most of the models are showing some development, especially NOGAPS and the ECMWF. In addition, we've seen 24 hours of persistence. These are all good signs so far.