Huge anticyclone in tropical atlantic keeping ITCZ in check

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Many of you wonder why the ITCZ has been free of deep convection or blobs and be strong and the reason is a big anticyclone in the tropical atlantic that combined with strong subsidence east of 40w.Until that anticyclone weakens or moves the ITCZ will be weak and supressed a little south than normal.In other words dont expect an early TD forming from the eastern atlantic this season like what happened last year when TD#2 formed unless that anticyclone weakens more rapidly .

[Aquawind]

Well Said.. Last year was a Freaky Season and we have 3 months before the CV prime time starts..Early hurricane season can be very boring even with some big numbers predicted.. As you know we can/do have multiple systems at the same time come prime time..

[Derecho]

Last year was a Freaky Season

Since I started following tropical weather in 1995 I've seen all nine seasons each proclaimed "freaky" or "unusual."

There's no such thing as a "normal" tropical season.

And as an aside, even as someone who probably wastes a lot of time staring at not very relevant stuff myself, I'm a bit mystified as to why the Eastern Atlantic ITCZ is even worth mentioning or looking at all in April or May. Nothing will happen there, and what it looks like now almost certainly has no relation or bearing to what it will look like in August.

[Aquawind]

Very Well Said...Normal? Whats Normal?..lol We did have a couple exceptional early systems last year...in time that could become normal..

[cycloneye]

Derecho I am only bringing this because many people especially newbies and some people I disagree with who want to see the ITCZ active all the time see the ITCZ inactive now and question what is going on that it is not stronger and a little more north in latitud but I agree with you that nothing that is happening now will have an impact when the peak of the CV season arrives.

[Anonymous]

ITCZ activity is often influenced by MJO cycles. The positive (suppressing) phase is over the ATL but the negative (enhancing) phase is already in the EPAC. Thats why there a possibility of development in that region within the next week or so.

[hial2]

Dont early season tropical systems usually develop in the gulf/Caribbean area anyway? Why would a newbie look at the Atlantic for genesis?

When the shear aminorates in the Caribe, look out!!

[Anonymous]

Dont early season tropical systems usually develop in the gulf/Caribbean area anyway? Why would a newbie look at the Atlantic for genesis?

Because a newbie may not know that the eastern Atlantic is climatologically unfavorable for development @ this time of the year.

[Typhoon_Willie]

That is correct TWW a newbie may not know of the harsh conditions that exist in the tropical Eastern Atlantic at this time of year!