May 2004: The Coming Reign of Spring’s “Pleasant King”

[donsutherland1]

With regard to the weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States, the <b>April outlook</b> fared exceptionally well. Now, as the month nears an end, it is time to look ahead to what the coming month might bring.

The weather in May can bring to mind the best of what Spring has to offer. Few descriptions are more vivid than Thomas Nashe’s <I>Spring</I>. In this poem, Nashe observed:

<I>Spring, the sweet Spring, is the year’s pleasant king;
Then blooms each thing…
Cold doth not sting, the pretty birds do sing…
The fields breathe sweet, the daisies kiss our feet,
Young lovers meet…</I>

After an April in which winter’s last icy breath brought early unseasonable cold to the East, only to be followed after mid-month by summer’s first hot breath with 90° readings across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and 80s well north into New England, the question arises as to whether May will bask in the benign reign of Spring’s “pleasant king.”

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one, for the Washington, DC to Boston area, it appears that May will indeed see the gentle reign of Spring’s “pleasant king.”

Given the preponderance of analogs, one might reasonably expect the following:

• No 90° or above readings in Boston and New York City.
• A monthly minimum temperature in the lower 40s in New York City and Washington, DC and possibly upper 30s in Boston
• The potential for a big rainstorm with widespread amounts of 1.50” or more.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region: </b>

<b>May 1-7:</b> Below normal to normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
<b>May 8-14:</b> Somewhat above normal temperatures; Above to much above normal precipitation.
<b>May 15-21:</b> Below normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation in the Northeast and somewhat below normal precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region.
<b>May 22-28:</b> Near normal temperatures; Normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>May 29-31:</b> Normal to above normal temperatures; Normal to above normal precipitation.

<b>All-Time Extreme Temperatures for May:</b>

<b>Boston:</b> Highest: 97°, May 26, 1880; Lowest: 31°, May 3, 1882
<b>New York City:</b> Highest: 99°, May 19, 1962; 32°, May 6, 1891
<b>Washington, DC:</b> 99°, May 31, 1991; 33°, May 11, 1906

All said, expect near normal to somewhat above normal monthly readings throughout this region. Precipitation should be normal to above normal in the Northeast and near normal across the Mid-Atlantic region.

In conclusion, April’s first hot breath of summer will be a fading memory in May, as the month likely sees fairly pleasant readings with no outbreaks of extreme temperatures likely.

[donsutherland1]

While many are rightly marveling at the late-season snow that occurred in parts of eastern Michigan, northern Ohio, southern Ontario, and parts of western New York and Pennsylvania today and the quick shot of cold that is following, the ingredients continue to fall into place for another respectable and perhaps even formidable shot of cold air in the first week of May.

After much indecisiveness, the ensembles are now in decent consensus that the NAO will turn negative and hold there for much for the first 7-10 days of May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

In addition, there is still plenty of cold air in northwestern Canada to be tapped:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... ature.html

This body of cold air extends back to the North Pole and has shown some signs of beginning to flow toward the United States. With blocking likely to develop, at least a piece of this large pool of cold air will likely move into the central and then eastern United States during the first week in May.

Hence, even though temperatures will likely start out on the warm side on Saturday and perhaps Sunday, by the workweek, it should be noticeably cooler in the East.

All said, things still look on course for the first week to see temperatures average below normal to near normal in the East in spite of the warmer readings that appear likely on May 1-2 in this region.

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully May will be kind to us in south Louisiana. The past few years we've gone into a light drought during the month of May with hot temps.
After 4 inches of rain this past weekend, I'm hoping there will be no drought and average temperatures!

[Stephanie]

Great analysis Don as usual!!!

May is my favorite month - it's the prettiest and as you said, the most "pleasant".

[Wnghs2007]

Great job DOn

And yes Stephanie May is my favorite month of the year too...because it is also my birthday month which is 12 days from today....on May 9th

[azskyman]

There is poetry in our skies, and your ability to portray the day-to-day march of the elements with the color that you do shows your passion for the elements, Don.

We appreciate the artful look at what most people see as mundane and routine...or don't really see at all. Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Stephanie and Wnghs2007,

It will be interesting to see how things turn out for the month. Hopefully, there will be enough nice weather to satisfy you both.

Wnghs2007, May 9 is the date of a historic late-season snow that fell in and around New York City in 1977. The summer proved to be scorching hot, particularly in July.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the kind words, Azskyman.

There is much beauty to be found in the weather and all of nature. There can be surprises, too, as some in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and western Maryland who had thought winter was finished saw yesterday.

[Stephanie]

Thanks Stephanie and Wnghs2007,

It will be interesting to see how things turn out for the month. Hopefully, there will be enough nice weather to satisfy you both.

Wnghs2007, May 9 is the date of a historic late-season snow that fell in and around New York City in 1977. The summer proved to be scorching hot, particularly in July.

Gosh, I don't remember that and it was my last year living there on Long Island. I DO remember the heatwave/brownouts of July, 1977 though, plus the "Summer of Sam".

May 9th is a great day - my niece's birthday is that day!

[donsutherland1]

In advance, I hope that your niece will have a great birthday on May 9.

On that date in 1977, snow flurries fell in downtown Manhattan for 20 minutes while accumulating snow fell across the distant northern and western suburbs northward. Northern Connecticut received up to 8" of snow.

In terms of the May 2004, May 4 saw some unseasonably cool temperatures across the Washington, DC to Boston region. Highlights included:

Atlantic City: 39°
Boston: 43°
New York City: 42°
Newark: 42°
Philadelphia: 42°
Washington, DC: 44°
Wilmington, DE: 39°

[donsutherland1]

Earlier today, thanks to strong radiational cooling overnight, new low temperatures for May 2004 were established in Boston and Providence:

Boston: 40° (missed record of 35° set in 1907)
Providence: 36° (missed record of 33° set in 1907)

[Stephanie]

In advance, I hope that your niece will have a great birthday on May 9.

On that date in 1977, snow flurries fell in downtown Manhattan for 20 minutes while accumulating snow fell across the distant northern and western suburbs northward. Northern Connecticut received up to 8" of snow.

In terms of the May 2004, May 4 saw some unseasonably cool temperatures across the Washington, DC to Boston region. Highlights included:

Atlantic City: 39°
Boston: 43°
New York City: 42°
Newark: 42°
Philadelphia: 42°
Washington, DC: 44°
Wilmington, DE: 39°

Thanks Don! I guess that's why I didn't remember the snow since the accumulation occurred Upstate. If there were flurries in Manhatten, then there probably were some out on Long Island as well.

[donsutherland1]

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following has occurred:

Boston:
May 1-7: Temperature 5.6° above normal; 0.85" precipitation
May 8-14: Temperature 2.1° above normal; 0.22" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 40° 5/5; Highest Temperature: 89°, 5/15

New York City:
May 1-7: Temperature 1.6° above normal; 0.64" precipitation
May 8-14: Temperature 5.1° below normal; 2.35" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 42° 5/4; Highest Temperature: 86°, 5/11-13, 15

Washington, DC:
May 1-7: Temperature 1.4° above normal; 1.71" precipitation
May 8-14: Temperature 9.6° below normal; 0.01" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 44° 5/4; Highest Temperature: 89°, 5/11

<b>Washington, D.C.: An extraordinarily warm start:</b>
During the first 15 days of May, Washington, D.C. had a mean temperature of 69.1°. If the city maintains that mean temperature, it would make May 2004 among the 12 warmest Mays on record.

In such years, 5 of 8 such months that saw less than 7" of rainfall for the April-May period experienced warmer than normal summers (77.8° vs. 77.0° norm) with 5/8 also seeing at least one month averaging 80° or above.

In addition, 5 of 6 such months that saw rainfall come out between 4.00" and 6.99" for the April-May period saw warmer than normal summers (78.7° vs. 77.0° norm) with 5/6 seeing at least one month with an 80° mean or above. The average for the warmest month of such summers came to 80.7°).

Should May 2004 see only 1.44" or less during the May 16-31 period, it could fall into the category discussed above. However, I do believe a somewhat wetter trend should occur during the second half of the month, so I'm not sure that this will actually occur.

[donsutherland1]

May 2004--Second half and quick monthly wrap-up

Overall, for the month, the region saw rainfall that came out somewhat below normal in Boston and Washington, DC and above normal in New York City. Temperatures from the northern Mid-Atlantic southward averaged above normal (NYC +2.0°) to much above normal (Washington, DC: +6.2°). Boston came out very close to normal (-0.3°).

The last half of the month saw readings run above to much above normal across the Mid-Atlantic but well below normal across eastern New England courtesy of several prolonged episodes of easterly winds off the still cool Atlantic Ocean.

The following highlights worked out well:

• No 90° or above readings in Boston and New York City.
• A monthly minimum temperature in the lower 40s in New York City and Washington, DC and possibly upper 30s in Boston

However, the idea of a widespread 1.50" rain event proved all "wet." Although there were some wet episodes during the month, there was no such event that approached this idea.

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following occurred during the May 15-31 period:

<b>Boston:</b>
May 15-21: Temperature 5.0° above normal; 0.33" precipitation
May 22-30: Temperature 8.1° below normal; 1.71" precipitation
May 29-31: Temperature 5.2° below normal; Trace precipitation

<b>New York City:</b>
May 15-21: Temperature 5.6° above normal; 1.37" precipitation
May 22-30: Temperature 2.4° above normal; 1.19" precipitation
May 29-31: Temperature 6.0° below normal; 0.21" precipitation

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
May 15-21: Temperature 8.2° above normal; 0.37" precipitation
May 22-30: Temperature 9.6° above normal; 0.70" precipitation
May 29-31: Temperature 3.3° below normal; 0.19" precipitation

<b>Monthly Totals:</b>

<b>Boston:</b>
Temperature: 0.3° below normal
Precipitation: 3.11"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 89°, May 15
Lowest Temperature: 40°, May 5

<b>New York City:</b>
Temperature: 2.0° above normal
Precipitation: 5.76"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 87°, May 15, 23
Lowest Temperature: 42°, May 4

<b>Washington, DC:</b>
Temperature: 6.2° above normal (2nd warmest on record)
Precipitation: 2.98"
Snowfall: None
Highest Temperature: 92°, May 23
Lowest Temperature: 44°, May 4