Nice tropical scenario emerging....

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dixiebreeze
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Nice tropical scenario emerging....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu May 20, 2004 9:30 am

in the Caribbean this morning. Any thoughts on the outcome?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF
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#2 Postby vbhoutex » Thu May 20, 2004 9:36 am

Mind you this is only after looking at you map. It still looks very disorganized to me. I think a lot of what is shown on your sat pic is actually part of the trough over the more Eastern and Northeastern portions of the Carribean.

Will we see development? Possible, but only if the low tightens up considerably and the shear abates and the low moves out over water, none of which has happened yet. DEFINITELY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED! That is why the STORM2K Forecast team is issuing updates.
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu May 20, 2004 9:39 am

Yes, and I'll be watching those updates. Thanks!
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#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu May 20, 2004 10:21 am

Yes Dixie, it looks to me that the Tropical Wave that passed PR yesterday is the kicker for development, if any down there. The TW has generated some deep convection and I wouldn't be surprised to see another low, besides the Costa Rica low develop within it south of Hispaniola. Whether it finds itself in a favorable enough environment to develop further beyond just a weak tropical low is another question.

Something to watch anyway!
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu May 20, 2004 10:46 am

I do agree, dean, and right now, at noon, the convection is deepening quite a lot.
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#6 Postby wx247 » Thu May 20, 2004 10:51 am

The convection quite a ways east of where the mid level center is.
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#7 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu May 20, 2004 11:03 am

wx247 wrote:The convection quite a ways east of where the mid level center is.


That's true, but I'm thinking of a possible new low eventually emerging?
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#8 Postby wx247 » Thu May 20, 2004 11:10 am

That is possible... I think Dean may be onto something. I think this wave that crossed Puerto Rico recently may be the low that develops. We shall see...
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