Tropical distrabance
5-20-2004
5pm pst
...Tropical distrabance becomes better oreganized...
Center: 12.0 north/102.9 by the latest sab t number location...Or in the latest Miatwdep 12.0 north/103 west.
Pressure: 1012 millibars
Distance from land: 450 miles south of Mazanillo.
Discussion...A tropical distrabance moving west-northwest. Has become better oreganized through out the day. Over the last few hours there has been a large blow up of convection around 10 to 12 north/103 west the location of the cirulation center is just to the north of the deepest convection. A new center by looking at the outer feeder like bands may show a new center of cirulation forming with in the deepest convection. Or even the low pressure its self could be north to south making it look this way. The deepest convection may tighten the southern part of this system into a low while the northern part gets sucked. Looking at visible paints a very detailed pictures of what we got here today. Which shows that thinking coming true so we may have a tropical depression with in the next 24 to 36 hours if this keeps up. The outflow channels on the northern/southern side looks very well defined for this stage of development.
This system is now getting a sab t number of to weak...
Track...So far this system has moved to the west-northwest or even some what to the northwest. The GFDL moves it off to the west or west-northwest mostly moving in the way it is moving right now for the next 24 to 36 hours. Looking outwards this model takes it northwest or even north. With even a possible slight turn to the east of north track after 48 hours. Then turning it to the west-northwest after 72 hours. The Avn-Gfs takes it more northwest over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then turns it to the north or just to the west of north at around 48 hours. While doing the west-northwest turn around 72 to 96 hours all the way to the end of the forecast period into colder waters. The ukmet takes a weak system off to the west-northwest or northwest for the next 72 hours. I'm going more with the gfdl then the avn because of the current west to west-northwest track that the system is currently moving. Which this system will likely move to the west-northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours then a turn more to the north afterwards.
How strong will this system get...The GFDL makes cat 3 hurricane at 48 hours. The Avn also makes it a hurricane with in that time frame. My thinking is holding it down just a little but still making it a hurricane at 72 hours.
Forecasted winds...
Now 25 mph
6 hours 30 mph
12 hours 30 mph
24 hours 35 mph tropical depression forms
36 hours 50 mph tropical storm
48 hours 60 mph
72 hours 75 mph
84 hours 80 mph
96 hours 75 mph
120 hours 40 mph over colder waters
Forecaster Matthew
