Any change in sight for FL dry weather?

[boca]

Does any one see a remote change in the dry pattern in Fl specically in South Fl? Comments welcome.

[Brent]

No. The Bermuda High looks to be in firm control. Sorry.

[boca]

darn it

[Dean4Storms]

About a week out/next weekend a trough could develop in the east which possibly could back the high down enough allowing for more typical popcorn TStorms in the afternoon over FL.

[Dean4Storms]

Watch this loop, you'll see what I'm getting at.


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

[HURRICANELONNY]

I live in Hollywood and the grass is starting to get brown. Not half as bad as the last drought caused by La Nina but starting. Everyweek the NWS or should I say the GFS shows changes and it ain't happenin. But as Don Noe,the local met says"the rainy season starts when it starts raining" Everyone be safe and prepared this season cause it's going to be a wild one.

[boca]

It looks like the high is starting to lift out and loose its grip finally. I hope I'm interpreting correctly.

[Dean4Storms]

You are Brent, if this front does make it into the SE as it depicts now, it will cause the ridging from the Atlantic to back down and thus uncap the atmosphere over FL. The bad thing is that it will be timed just right for Memorial Day weekend and may rain on a few picnics and BBQ's!

[Guest]

With only a slight chance of showers forecast through next week the dryness will continue even though the rainy season is suppose to be officially underway here in South Fla..Maybe there will be some changes as the Memorial Day weekend approaches,which wouldnt surprise me,there is always a good chance of rain around here at that time..I can recall many Memorial Day BBQ's hampered by T-Storms.

My area did get a brief but heavy downpour last night @ about 11.

[Brent]

But even popup storms won't hit everyone. That's what so annoying about them. You need a tropical storm to come by.

[Aquawind]

More Heat..Water temps are on the rise with our forecasted temps over 90..and lows near 70..and not much of a rainy season yet.. Sure doesn't look like were gonna have the troughs in the east we have experienced in the past couple years..opening the door for landfalls...and there is the mother nature balancing act concept..dry early rainy season..hopefully the payback isn't a major landfall or two...


000
FXUS62 KTBW 220554
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
154 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...DRY AIR IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF
THE PENINSULA WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE LEE
COUNTY. THESE ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND DISSIPATING. EXPECT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE MUCH LIKE FRIDAY WAS...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY.
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTRAL FLORIDA...LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN EARLY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARD THE COAST EACH NIGHT. ITS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THAT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WILL EXIST.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE NEAR...OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
AVERAGE EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...HOT AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD BY MID WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
AND MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....WITH TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SIMILAR TP
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY DRY AIR MASS FOR
THE ENTIRE FA SO PROSPECTS FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO HAVE OPTED TO ONLY DEPICT A
10% POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF PAST WEEKS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THIS WILL CHANGE TIMING OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...TO MID TO LATE
MORNING NEAR THE COAST...SHIFTING TO THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SW-WLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WARM MUGGY NIGHTS WITH NIGHT TIME
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 7OS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ~90 AT THE COAST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCAL SEA AND BAY BREEZES WILL DICTATE THE WIND DIRECTION...BUT
BASICALLY EASTERLY OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS EACH
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFFSHORE EACH DAY...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MAKE WORTH MENTIONING.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ATTEMPT TO TAP THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. FOR NOW...
WILL DEPICT MIN RH'S IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH NO WIND
SPEED PROBLEMS. IF THE DRY AIR IS TAPPED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAY
HAVE TO ISSUE A QUICK RED FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 090 070 090 071 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 091 069 091 069 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 091 068 091 069 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 088 068 088 068 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 090 063 090 064 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL

[wolffeeder]

Move to my house in Boynton Beach. We have been getting hit by those pop up showers every day for more than a week. Very strange, but good.

And i haven't even been doing any prayers or offerings to the rain gods

[TampaFl]

Agree with all, we need the rain here to in the Tampa Bay area. Last rain I had at my house was on may 3rd Was hoping that Florida would get some of that disturbed weather in the Carribbean Sea but at this time that does not look like it will happen. Pressures are lower here this morning (30.12 vs 30.22 yesterday at this time) so lets hope the strong ridge of high pressure is losing its grip Thoughts and comments welcomed.

GO TAMPA BAY LIGHTING!!!

Robert

[smerby]

Congrats to the Lightning!!

Enjoy the hockey because any significant rain should be hard to get over the next 3-5 five days and maybe longer, especially in central FL. The tropical development in the Caribbean should keep high pressure and a mainly dry pattern over much of central and south FL the next 3-5 days. A weak front may slip south toward the northern counties later in the week with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.


Smerby
http://www.accuweather.com

[stormcrow]

Here in Calgary we'll gladly send you the moisture we have been having, and we'll be happy to take the Stanley Cup in exchange. PS a lot of the wet stuff has been snow.

[ColdFront77]

In the last 12 to 24 hours, the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL was expecting the high pressure to remain stationary and then finally move eastward into the western Atlantic. It was expected to eastward, (out to sea), faster.

Funny thing is, the barometric pressure yesterday afternoon was around 30.10 inches. across central Florida.