Probable Broad Low Level Circulation

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 22, 2004 2:55 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

If you see closely to the disturbance south of Puerto Rico, is almost visible a broad area of low pressure. With time we will see if something will try to develop there.

Sandy Delgado

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat May 22, 2004 3:05 pm

Sorry, I don't see it, at least not in the quikscat. All I see is a strong jet N of the disturbance and some winds around it but no circulation. With time that could change, but still way too much shear around.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Sat May 22, 2004 3:10 pm

I agree David it looks like a disorganized mess to me..Lots of Rain for the Islands though. Bad News For PR

Wnghs2007 · #4 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 22, 2004 3:17 pm

There is a LLC at this location according to the address below:

Image centered at Latitude= 16.69° N Longitude= 70.81° W (X=429 Y=405)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html

Cliick animation and select the area provided with a 30 frame loop

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat May 22, 2004 3:26 pm

That is what you interpret as a LLCC. All this site does is provide the sat views for us. I do not see a LLCC in it. Maybe a broad area of low pressure with TONS of convection to the NE of the BROAD circulation center, but I do not see a LLCC in that.

Wnghs2007 · #6 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 22, 2004 3:33 pm

Well this is my map of whats happening.

When you look at the loop you can clearly see the small swirl that I have saw many times before. The weather channel has pointed out a low level swirl with no convection before. And in the loop it looks exactly like what they pointed out.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 22, 2004 4:20 pm

Wnghs2007, do you know if the shear is subsiding, or increasing, because that is the main factor.

Sandy Delgado

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 22, 2004 4:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Wnghs2007, do you know if the shear is subsiding, or increasing, because that is the main factor.

Sandy Delgado

Current shear:

Well I think it has subsided some. BUT, It is still causing some big problems for this system. As you can see this system is in shear of 25-45 knts at the moment. That needs to still decrease to 5-10 knts before I think any real development will happen. This system needs to stay about stationary if it has any hope of development. The enviroment around it is improving but the further north it gets, the more it moves into higher shear. Only Time will tell on development 8-)

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 22, 2004 4:40 pm

Surely as you said, only time will say, and time is what this system needs.

Sandy Delgado

Wnghs2007 · #10 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 22, 2004 4:44 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Surely as you said, only time will say, and time is what this system needs.

Sandy Delgado

And what most likely this system does not have. Sadly

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Sat May 22, 2004 4:53 pm

It looks impressive. If only the shear was a little less...

Wnghs2007 · #12 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat May 22, 2004 5:57 pm

Here is a better image of shear tendency. Looks to be increasing to its west but decreasing around the parimeter.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shtZ.GIF

Does any one Know over what time this shear tendency means. What in 24 hours the shear will be 30 knts less?

Josephine96 · #13 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat May 22, 2004 6:14 pm

I wish the preseason shear would relax a little. I'm ready to start tracking storms lol

Probable Broad Low Level Circulation

Probable Broad Low Level Circulation

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