000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240217
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING WHILE BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST. AGATHA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN UNDER SHEARING CONDITIONS AND OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/04 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF
MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE GFS HAS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS TRACK IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHAT
THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON IS A VERY SLOW MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE ABOVE MODELS BY BECOMING
STATIONARY IN 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.6N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Well It looks like the end is coming for Agatha
