PTCF In Subtropical Atlantic!Shear Rapidly Decreasing.

[Wnghs2007]

OMG THEY DID NOT. BUT THEY DID. I CANT BELIEVE IT BUT LOOK AT THIS IMAGE AND SEE FOR YOURSELF

[Wnghs2007]

When I first saw this I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me. But they were not. Well looks like there is the possiblity for development.

[george_r_1961]

Looks like Alex is on the way.

[Brent]

Most likely AFTER it passes Hispanola. Nothing imminent.

[Wnghs2007]

Looks like Alex is on the way.

It does look to very well be on that way. I can almost see increased organization even though over hati in the system. Lets keep an eye to the NHC, and the models, and to Storm2k

[MWatkins]

I don't type this often...but I actually think the 12Z Canadian has a pretty good grasp on this system:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

With a little development...followed by a slow NNE to NE drift after coming off of Haiti. It'll sit for a while until a trough comes through and sweeps it out to sea in 5 days or so.

Looks like the UKMET is also following this solution...the 18Z GFS is less aggressive with development (than the 12Z models including the 12Z GFS) and spins up a couple of vort maxes but nothing more serious than a low pressure trough that splits up.

I guess it's wait and see...but the rain down there is problem enough for the PR/DR area.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Lets go Alex, lets go, or at least TD 1.

Sandy Delgado

[Matthew5]

Yes it is getting better oreganized just have to see if the shear go's away

[Wnghs2007]

SHEAR IS RAPIDLY DECREASING FOR AREA OF CONCERN> POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shtZ.GIF

[Wnghs2007]

The amount of convection is increasing and starting to show signs of organization

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow will be a decesive day. Maybe tommorow we say, Bye, Bye Agatha, also say, Welcome Alex, this is your second appearance in major leagues.

Sandy Delgado

[wx247]

The shear is decreasing in response to the sharpening trough to the west. It may develop... I think TD *at best* but it will get shipped out to sea. I just hope it forms far enough north of the islands to keep places like Puerto Rico out of the main action. They have seen FAR too much rain.

[HURAKAN]

The best can happen to these islands is to see a consolidated disturbance, which then will move NE, out to sea.

Sandy Delgado

[MWatkins]

Hey...forgot this point. Remember that a lot of that deep convection is the result of orographic lift...in other words it is getting caused by lift from the mountians there (note the deep reds right over land). This wrecks systems by disrupting the vertical structure of systems...not to mention mixing in dry sinking air on the lee side of the mountians.

Nothing significant will organize while this is going on. This system will need to seperate a little from the DR before development will occur...which should be sometime tomorrow.

MW

[dixiebreeze]

On a recent poll on S2K, I was one of the ones who predicted a named storm during the first two weeks of June -- I'll stick to that, though it may be sooner!

[Brent]

LOL, calm down KC.

[Wnghs2007]

The amount of convection is increasing and starting to show signs of organization

Ok when I say this is starting to show more organization I mean this. the center of the low level swirl. which I can pretty much bet is an LLC is moving closer to the convection> Albeit. Closer to Hati and the Dominican Republic. Just stay tuned and lets see what happens tomorrow. Have sources saying they might upgrade this to a TD at 11 Am tomorrow so Stay tuned.

[Derek Ortt]

This MAY be TD 2. 01L has already been used for the S Atlantic cane (as indicated by the ATCF file). This is assuming that there is any development, which is extremely unlikely. Maybe a non-tropical low will form

[Matthew5]

If that LLCC can get away from those mountains then I would say this has a fair chance.

[Wnghs2007]

This MAY be TD 2. 01L has already been used for the S Atlantic cane (as indicated by the ATCF file). This is assuming that there is any development, which is extremely unlikely. Maybe a non-tropical low will form

Good point. This maybe TD 2 and it might even be alex who know.

If that LLC can get away from those mountains then I would say this has a fair chance.

Well I excpect the LLC to get away from the sometime tomorrow morning. And then it should stall on the other side of Hati as brought up in another thread.