Outbreak Forecast.....(5-24-04)

Brett Adair · #1 Postby **Brett Adair** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:20 am

Today looks to be one of the most dangerous days for the Plains during this week long outbreak of severe weather. A shortwave trof will dig out of the Rockies this afternoon and take a STRONG negative tilt by 22z. Nice upper level difflunce and WAA at the low levels will accompany this feature. Strong LI's (-10 to -12°C) coupled with UVV fields suggest extreme lift across the region with SBCAPE's AOA 5500J/kg from SW IA/SE NE/E KS/MO by 21z Monday. SFC Cyclone of 998mb in E KS will be the focal point of the outbreak by 21-00z. Deep layer shear along the baroclinic zone extending from E KS/S IA/N MO/W IL will approach 70 KNOTS! This will aid in rapidly developing severe thunderstroms which will likely take on supercell potential and become tornadic. Steepe low level lapse rates to 11°C/km suggests VIOLENT rotating updraft development is likely in the region. With strongly veered VWP's and large looped hodographs this morning, Kansas City, Omaha, and Topeka could be in for a long day. SR inflow values will increase from 25-35 knots by 00z which will aid in strong, long-track tornado development. The Capping inversion in place will allow temps to build well into the 80's and points into the low to mid 70's. Initiation will begin along the dryline/front in extreme East KS/NE by 4pm. This is going to be a long day folks and definately a chasers dream. If you live in these regions, please stay alert to the latest information about your area. Stay with the STORM2K forecast team for the latest details on the upcoming dangerous and possibly life threatening situation.

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:21 am

This is so similar to the plains outbreak in April 26, 1991! Heck I was in third grade then, but remember it very well!

#3 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:25 am

Thoughts on development further South into Kansas??

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:29 am

IMHO, southern Kansas has a more "if the cap blows, watch out; if not, well nothing." Northeast KS though definitely may see some dangerous, destructive supercells with violent tornadoes possible.

#5 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:32 am

My thoughts too. I just don't like the new SPC outlook bringing the high risk farther SSE. I hope it is not moved any farther south. I don't want high risk here.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:35 am

I thought they shifted it south; they actually just expanded it south. You have seen your fair share of severe weather, Garrett this year! It looks to be from I-70 north.

#7 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:37 am

NEWeatherguy wrote:I thought they shifted it south; they actually just expanded it south. You have seen your fair share of severe weather, Garrett this year! It looks to be from I-70 north.

Our local HWO this morning mentions tornado potential here... dependant on being able to break the cap that we may have in place. :eek:

Brett Adair · #8 Postby **Brett Adair** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:56 am

Not sure if the cap will break there just yet Garrett. Looks like the SFC/UL features may go just to your north. If a cool pool develops aloft thought you are definately screwed because instability is going ot be extreme in your region. Just got off the phone with two of my chaser buddies. They just left St. Louis headed towards Kansas City. Looks like they are going into the "Bear's Cage" head on. Watch KC towercams today folks....could be another May 4th, 2003 where the KC metro gets slammed by large ones. Stay tuned...

#9 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 9:57 am

Thanks for the info Brett.

Skywatch_NC · #10 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:13 am

At least one Wxbuddy lives in northeast KS (Topeka)...Davidtjr

Look out, man! :eek:

Eric

snoopj · #11 Postby **snoopj** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:17 am

First thing I thought when I saw the SPC stuff this morning was "Did I get transported back to May 4th, 2003?"

Either way, I'm not liking the forecast and I'm going to make sure my emergency kit is ready....just in case. I came within 1/4" to 1/2" mile last time.....ugh.

--snoopj

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:25 am

Brett, right now there are some scattered mid-level clouds here in east-centraal Nebraska. Do you think this may retard heating significantly to somewhat reduce the risk of severe storms here?

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:46 am

NEWeatherguy wrote:Brett, right now there are some scattered mid-level clouds here in east-centraal Nebraska. Do you think this may retard heating significantly to somewhat reduce the risk of severe storms here?

Nevermind, just a medium patch of mid-level cloud cover; I am starting to see breaks to start this "supercell convention".

#14 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:48 am

Hey Bri... take care, all right? Keep us posted and do well on your final. hehehe

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:52 am

wx247 wrote:Hey Bri... take care, all right? Keep us posted and do well on your final. hehehe

Oh, sure, Garrett, my mind will definitely be on the final, yep!

With the outbreak of severe weather and the fact that tomorrow night I go to aconcert with my friend Emily, I should be very focused! :lol:

#16 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:53 am

I bet you will. You will be online this evening right??

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:54 am

Yes!

#18 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 24, 2004 10:58 am

Okay... This looks to be a rough evening. Also, I think that the J Squared chase team is heading out into the field again.

Brett Adair · #19 Postby **Brett Adair** » Mon May 24, 2004 11:59 am

ETA-forecast hodographs even indicate the semi-classic "kink" in the hodograph near 4km that are seen with violent tornadoes (from 21z MCI hodograph)...

yoda · #20 Postby **yoda** » Mon May 24, 2004 12:01 pm

Uh-oh... that would be bad, Brett.

Outbreak Forecast.....(5-24-04)

Outbreak Forecast.....(5-24-04)

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