pattern change?

[boca]

Does anyone think a pattern change will happen in FL or are we stuck in a rut. According to a article I read in the Sun Sentinel when we have a dry Spring it usually leads to a possible Hurricane strike because of the absense of the protective Eastern trough that will deflect storms away from Florida.

[CocoaBill]

It looks like we are hung out high and dry for the next 14 days or so.......

Hope your sprinkler system works!

[boca]

the last time it was this try was Spring 98 or 99

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah it looks like it will be dry for a while...

[Dean4Storms]

Agree with the synopsis, this type of pattern in Aug/Sept. would be bad news for Florida and the Gulf. We can only wait and see if it becomes the pattern by then but it is still too early to tell.

Florida could be facing another dangerous fire situation come June, especially if tight pressure gradients occur!

[Aquawind]

We have been in this pattern for almost a month and I doubt it will change much till late next fall.. The Bermuda high is going to prevent canes from going fishy and has been firmly in place unlike the last few years..The lack of the East coast trough opens the door to landfall and a hot dry Florida. So it's a double whammy for 2 important factors that have been favorably protecting us from drought and landfalls in the past. Should make for a scary season if this keeps up...


000
FXUS62 KTBW 240540
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THE
LAST OF THE SEA BREEZE CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH LEVY
COUNTY AT THIS TIME. ALL AREAS WILL START THE DAY TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EARLY ALONG THE COAST AND
WORK ITS WAY INLAND...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. ATMOSPHERE JUST TOO DRY
FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BUT WE SHOULD SEE A LINE OF CLOUDS AGAIN
WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR AN HOUR OR
SO WHERE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. WILL LEAVE ZERO
POPS IN PLACE DESPITE GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S RIGHT ON THE BEACHES ON UP TO THE
LOWER 90S INLAND.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO TAKE PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS TEMPS AND
HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ALOFT. STILL NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS A TAD COOLER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ~90 EACH
DAY...OTHERWISE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL BE THE RULE OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS.
&&

.MARINE...CONTINUED TRANQUIL PATTERN WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2
FEET OR LESS AND WINDS LARGELY DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
AND SEE NO REASON FOR ANY CHANGE. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS WILL CONTINUE MUCH LIKE THE
PREVIOUS FEW WHERE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS.
AGAIN...WILL NOT ISSUE RFW AT THIS TIME BUT ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE SHORT-FUSED ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 090 071 090 071 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 091 068 091 068 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 091 068 093 068 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 087 067 087 068 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 091 063 092 062 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL

[CocoaBill]

With the dry and then the hurricane season, can anybody sing James Taylor:

"I've seen fire and I've seen rain"

[vacanechaser]

yea, unfortunatly it does not look like it is going to change too soon... And I think the news article is on the right path... That was the feeling we came away with from the hurricane conference... No one said Florida would be hit, but they sure talked about Florida and the long time drought of a major hurricane slamming ashore there... If I lived in Florida along the peninsula, I would start making some preparations for the long season NOW!!! Don't wait until it is too late.. That goes for eveyone living along the coastal waters as well.. Stay safe..

[Guest]

Luckily it rained the 1st few days of the month down here or this would be the most dryest May on record.

[Aquawind]

Hmmmm Looking at this loop the Clouds and Convection from the area of distrubed weather seems to be advancing towards Florida..Bahamas sure got swallowed up today.. NWS might have blown the forecast... a good thing this time if so.. Maybe some of that moisture will make it here eventually!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[boca]

It looks like the whole area is still moving generally north ,but Cirrus blowoff toward the north-norhtwest at least to my eye.

[Aquawind]

The shear is blowing the tops N-NE. It's the lowlevel clouds that catch my eye.. If it continues advancing straight north some moisture could help some convection here was my dream..

[boca]

maybe we should all do rain dances about 3:30pm at the same time so we can will those clouds over the SE Bahamas this way towards FL

[boca]

Sorry I meant 4:30pm

[Aquawind]

It's worth a shot..


--- mighty rain Gods

[HURAKAN]

Rain is extremely needed.

Sandy Delgado

[Patrick99]

I don't know about eventual tropical storms or hurricanes affecting Florida, but this current weather pattern is not cool. Literally, and figuratively. I can't imagine going through half of June with nothing but blue sky overhead all day. That's what it looks like, though....maybe even most or all of June.

I've lived in Miami my whole life, and I've never seen such a non-start to the rainy season. Sure, we've had some dry May-Junes. But even during those, you see some blow-off from pop-up storms SOMEWHERE, even if they are far out over the Everglades or Gulf coast areas due to strong easterly flow. These days, you don't even see that. If it wasn't for that little Grand Bahama cloud line streamer sending some sprinkles into Palm Beach every now and again, we'd have nothing. I just can't believe the air is that dry in Florida, in May/June, that isolated afternoon convection can't pop up *somewhere*.

[Guest]

I have followed tropical weather for a long time now & I know many things about hurricanes & weather in general but I don't know everything,I regret not taking it more serious & making a career out of it..Its the only job that I would love going to & from everyday..But one thing that often baffles me is why if there is a High pressure off to the N of this system,yeah the same High that we are all talking about being in control & causing the dry weather over Fla.Why then is this disturbed weather going to move & has been moving N & NE???shouldn't it be getting blocked & pushed Wward.

[smerby]

Hello MIA,

The Bermuda high pressure center that is causing the dry ENE flow across south Florida is in the lower levels of the atmosphere (~through the first 5,000 ft). The steering flow for a tropical system can be found around the edge of the 500 mb ridge of high pressure (~20,000 feet). The center of the 500 mb ridge is currently ENE of Puerto Rico and is promoting SW flow aloft across the northern Caribbean. In addition, a 500 mb trough of low pressure over the northwest Caribbean is also promoting a SW flow aloft over the northern Caribbbean. This should cause the tropical feature to track to the NE and away from Florida.

Hope this helps
Smerby
http://www.accuweather.com

[Anonymous]

Thanks Smerby!!!!!