Possible LLCC forms

[Matthew5]

At 23 north/75west a broad area of low pressure with developing convection. Could this be Alex we will see It also looks to becoming much better oreganized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[OtherHD]

Also notice the high clouds streaming right over it. Lots of shear still in the area.

[Wnghs2007]

Yes and it is moving into a more favorable enviroment Other. Just thought I would let you know. Say hey to alex for me while your at it.

[HURAKAN]

Looks true!! With every minute that passes we see a better organized system, lots of convection and know a LLCC. Looks like everything is coming together !

Sandy Delgado

[cycloneye]

Looks true!! With every minute that passes we see a better organized system, lots of convection and know a LLCC. Looks like everything is coming together !

Sandy Delgado

What evidence you have in concrete that it is better organized? My job as moderator is to have discussions about the tropics but sustain what you post with solid evidence and not confuse the members with information that is not correct.

[rainstorm]

at least it has a chance. not bad for late may

[Wnghs2007]

What evidence you have in concrete that it is better organized? My job as moderator is to have discussions about the tropics but sustain what you post with solid evidence and not confuse the members with information that is not correct.

Luis, I do believe it looks as if it is becoming better organized, even if it may be so slight. When I look at the factors. It is moving into a less sheared enviroment. The Possible LLCC looks to have formed. It might still be at the mid levels but it looks to vivid on satilite to call it not an LLCC. I will wait for the NHC before I call it that. And finally the thunderstorms are starting to get closer to the center. But you are right on the fact that just because it looks better orgainized does not mean that it is. Thanks.

[Matthew5]

There is a LLCC at 23 north/75 west with the clouds pulling into the system from the south on the southern side in from the north into the system on the north. It clearly shows a low close to the surface so I'm going ahead in saying its a LLCC. There is deep convection with in 50 nmi from the LLCC on the north/northeast quads of this system. There also appears to be a wraping of the convection with time. The waters under this system is around 75 degree maybe upwards of 78 degrees which means it is forming over a enviroment which is some what tropical. Is that enough for you cycloneye?

[HURAKAN]

Sorry for what I said. Everyone that comes here likes to express their opinions. In my opinion, it is becoming better organized because now it looks to have a center of circulation at the surface, and convection right next to it. Not everyone here that post something have concrete information about what they are posting.

Sandy Delgado

[Guest]

Way way too much shear for this to have a chance of going much farther. And as the link below shows to much dry air as well to the nw and one cant ignore the marginal water temps either. Too much IMHO going against this becomming Alex.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[Matthew5]

I agree HURAKAN. I think another low could form more to the east where there is deeper convection in less shear.

[cycloneye]

2007 you are right let the official word come out from the NHC and let's not anticipate things that may happen before they put out a statement because that is what I am doing as moderator to not allow confusion to govern this Hurricane Hollow forum.

[Wnghs2007]

2007 you are right let the official word come out from the NHC and let's not anticipate things that may happen before they put out a statement because that is what I am doing as moderator to not allow confusion to govern this Hurricane Hollow forum.

Yes you are right. I have saw systems before that did not look anything like a tropical depression or storm and they have upgraded it. So it is there call not ours. Thanks for being such a great mod

Way way too much shear for this to have a chance of going much farther. And as the link below shows to much dry air as well to the nw and one cant ignore the marginal water temps either. Too much IMHO going against this becomming Alex.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yes the water vapor loop does show dry air from the west but the possible LLCC is moving away from that. Hopefully it will not ingest any of it. Who knows. Second the water temps are still probally just about high enough to give this thing the juice needed for alex. As for the hostile conditions. It is also moving into the more favorable enviroment to the east. But the call is up to the NHC

[Matthew5]

I think with the LLCC this could very well be a tropical cyclone. One quastion there have been tropical cyclones, that had alot of shear over them, in they still where tropical cyclones? What doe's shear have to do with naming of tropical cyclones? Shear has alot to do with how strong one gets or if it develops. But if it has LLCC in convection over it then meets some of the things needed then it is. But we will wait for the nhc before we do anything.

[HURAKAN]

We have to see what the NHC has to say about it, they have the last word.

Sandy Delgado

[Guest]

We have to see what the NHC has to say about it, they have the last word.

Sandy Delgado

100% agreed.

Also Matthew i didnt say that shear had any affect on naming of tropical systems and if you felt thats how i worded it then i am sorry and was not my intention. All shear does is prohibit development or tears them apart tropical systems apart which this one has alot to over come.

[HURAKAN]

Unfortunately, the only thing we can do is wait to see what happens and rely on the advisories given by the NHC.

Sandy Delgado