A ship report is needed

[cycloneye]

That is what is needed now to see the data from any of them and with their information that can be sended it will say if strong winds are in the area and how are the sea level pressures.

[Josephine96]

Good Point Luis.. Where's a ship report when we need 1

[Derek Ortt]

And an AMSR pass to determine if its warm core

[wxman57]

I'm launching GARP to look for ship reports in the Bahamas area.

[cycloneye]

I'm launching GARP to look for ship reports in the Bahamas area.

Good Chris see if you can find at least one ship that may be near the area of interest.

[Matthew5]

I'm hoping for the LLCC to reform under that convection

[dixiebreeze]

I'm launching GARP to look for ship reports in the Bahamas area.

Great! That would surely help.

[wxman57]

Here you go. Only found ships at 00Z near there. Shows an apparent LLC southwest of the convection. I have a color issue from home and can't display satellite imagery, but the cluster of storms was near 25N/70W at 00Z. It's still NE of any circulation. Let's see if it lasts the night. At least now it won't affect anyone except maybe Bermuda.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

[cycloneye]

Ok Chris thanks for bringing those reports and shows clearly that MR SHEAR is present.

[wxman57]

Yeah, there's shear, but it's getting to be almost oriented in the direction of movement of the disturbance now, so the net shear may be decreasing. If that ball of convection lasts overnight then the LLC may slip underneath and we'll have Alex heading out to sea.

[Wnghs2007]

Yeah, there's shear, but it's getting to be almost oriented in the direction of movement of the disturbance now, so the net shear may be decreasing. If that ball of convection lasts overnight then the LLC may slip underneath and we'll have Alex heading out to sea.

Is there an Upper Low causing all this shear. It always seems to be them darn stuborn Upper lows.

[wxman57]

Yeah, there's shear, but it's getting to be almost oriented in the direction of movement of the disturbance now, so the net shear may be decreasing. If that ball of convection lasts overnight then the LLC may slip underneath and we'll have Alex heading out to sea.

Is there an Upper Low causing all this shear. It always seems to be them darn stuborn Upper lows.

Yep, an upper-level trof is to the west of the disturbance. BUT, this trof is probably responsible for the flare-up in convection. As it's kicking across the disturbance it is inducing lift. Upper lows/trofs aren't necessarily bad. Sometimes they can get a disturbance cranking like this one. Also note in the image below the large high to the SE of the disturbance. It's a 200mb streamline analysis.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb3.gif">

[Wnghs2007]

Yeah, there's shear, but it's getting to be almost oriented in the direction of movement of the disturbance now, so the net shear may be decreasing. If that ball of convection lasts overnight then the LLC may slip underneath and we'll have Alex heading out to sea.

Is there an Upper Low causing all this shear. It always seems to be them darn stuborn Upper lows.

Yep, an upper-level trof is to the west of the disturbance. BUT, this trof is probably responsible for the flare-up in convection. As it's kicking across the disturbance it is inducing lift. Upper lows/trofs aren't necessarily bad. Sometimes they can get a disturbance cranking like this one. Also note in the image below the large high to the SE of the disturbance. It's a 200mb streamline analysis.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb3.gif">

Ok well all I can say now is. Die UL and get your but in that convection quick LLC. LMAO