Looks like "Alex" to me........

[dixiebreeze]

Unbelievable! If it's not a TD or TS, it's a major replica:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Wnghs2007]

Unbelievable! If it's not a TD or TS, it's a major replica:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It does look like it but please explain your position. And be ready for the its not gonna happen speaches. Cause there coming.

[dixiebreeze]

Unbelievable! If it's not a TD or TS, it's a major replica:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It does look like it but please explain your position. And be ready for the its not gonna happen speaches. Cause there coming.

Educated instinct, my friend, educated instinct.

[Wnghs2007]

Unbelievable! If it's not a TD or TS, it's a major replica:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

It does look like it but please explain your position. And be ready for the its not gonna happen speaches. Cause there coming.

Educated instinct, my friend, educated instinct.

Also if you notice it looks like there may be that second low trying to form inside the convection. I just looked at the inhanced visible loop and I could see inflow into the convection that was curving into it as a matter of fact. Looks like Alex to me. Maybe Subtropical Storm Alex but alex atleast. LMAO!

[wxman57]

Beware, that giant blob of tstms is about 150-200 miles NE of a weak LLC over the southern Bahamas. You can still see a small swirl on the satellite imagery near 22.5N/72.5W. For now, it's just a big ball of storms displaced well NE of any possible LLC. If it persists overnight and if a circulation center moves or forms under it, THEN we'll possibly have a TD/TS.

That said, it does look more impressive tonight. The key is, will it hold together long enough for the LLC to develop beneath the convection? The upper-level trof to the west is imparting a good bit of S-SW shear over it as well.

[OtherHD]

The low level center is still well away from the deepest convection. What you're seeing is an illusion.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks wxman57, good analysis. Here is another view from the top:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[FWBHurricane]

Right now it does look pretty impressive. It has good outflow and in a pretty fair environment for strengthening. I wouldnt be surprised if this thing does become atleast a strong Tropical Depression or very weak Tropical Storm. But even if it does become a TD/TS..it wouldnt pose any threat to land. It will be pushed out to sea mostlikely and weaken.

[dixiebreeze]

The low level center is still well away from the deepest convection. What you're seeing is an illusion.

An "illusion" of grandeur, no doubt.

[Brent]

Impressive blob, but we have to see if the convection holds together. If it does that and if the LLC reforms, we might have something, but I don't think anything's imminent.

[Derek Ortt]

the low level convergence is pitiful. This system will likely expand unless we see more convergence

[Wnghs2007]

the low level convergence is pitiful. This system will likely expand unless we see more convergence

The low you see is going to die. And a new one is going to reform like it says in the discussion. And then the convection will organize around it. Just wait and see.

[Derek Ortt]

explain to me why a new low will form. Where is the convergence, creating the necessary lifting? Where is the vort max inside of the convection?

[Scott_inVA]

It does look like it but please explain your position. And be ready for the its not gonna happen speaches. Cause there coming.

Well, sat imagery doesn't tell the entire story by any means.

QuikSCAT shows convection well displaced from any LLC:
http://orbit212.wwb.noaa.gov/quikscat/

Given there's a trof to the west that will advance east (SW shear) and convection is already well east of the "center", I can't make a case this spins up.

upper shear tendency: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

GFS 040525 0Z v24 trof: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif


Off shore gale center, maybe, but a TC? Don't see that happening.

Scott

[wxman57]

The key here is whether the convection will persist. If it does last the night, then surrounding air will be drawn into the storms, increasing convergence and possibly resulting in an LLC forming beneath the heaviest convection. For now, it's just a brief flare-up in squalls. [/u]

[Wnghs2007]

explain to me why a new low will form. Where is the convergence, creating the necessary lifting? Where is the vort max inside of the convection?

000
FZNT02 KNHC 250248
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC TUE MAY 25 2004
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO.

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE MAY 25
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED MAY 26
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU MAY 27

WARNINGS.
.NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST
.ATLC LOW 22N74W 1009 MB WITH TROUGH TO 25N64W. WITHIN 260 NM N
AND NW OF TROUGH BETWEEN 64W AND 77W WIND NE TO E 20 TO 30 KT
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 60W TO 64W BETWEEN 15N AND 27N
WIND E TO SE 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. S OF 15N E OF 60W WIND
E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. NEW DEVELOPING LOW
27N64W 1013 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH TROUGH TO
22N77W. WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WIND 25 TO 30 KT SEAS
8 TO 11 FT. WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE WIND 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8
TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND NW OF TROUGH WIND NE 20
TO 25 KT SEAS TO 9 FT. S OF 15N E OF 60W WIND E TO NE 20 TO 25
KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 29N62W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM E
SEMICIRCLE WIND 25 TO 30 KT SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. WITHIN 180 NM W
SEMICIRCLE WIND 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. S OF 15N E OF 55W
WIND E TO NE 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N E OF 85W WIND E 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 25N E OF 85W WIND E 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

REMAINDER FORECAST AREA WIND LESS THAN 20 KT SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
FORECASTER FT
TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER

Well there is reason enough.

[Derek Ortt]

In a scientific sense? Nope. Not reason enough. WXman did give a good reason (14 hours at work today leads to me making those silly little omissions).