Sheared TC?

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon May 24, 2004 11:52 pm

Looking at the latest IR2 images from the Bahamas...it looks to me that there is a sheared TC...or at least a sheared sub-TC...in existance:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Haven't seen a QScat...but SOMETHING has to be doing all of that forcing at the surface.

MW

Matthew5 · #2 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon May 24, 2004 11:57 pm

I agree Mw.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 25, 2004 12:02 am

Looks as if it is being sheared apart to me. :roll:

FWBHurricane · #4 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Tue May 25, 2004 12:06 am

I agree with Thunder~n~Lightning....it does look like its being sheared apart. Comming from the Southwest. Its also picking up speed if you havnt noticed.

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue May 25, 2004 12:08 am

Mike you could be right, but it is really hard to tell. I thought it looked better earlier today, but to me it appears that nothing has reached the surface yet or if it did it appears to have disappated. Obviously I could be wrong. I must say it has been trying hard, but I'm just not convinced yet. It is so hard to tell without a true visible available too.

Matthew5 · #6 Postby **Matthew5** » Tue May 25, 2004 12:09 am

I went that LLCC to die, so another LLCC to form under the convection 8-)

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue May 25, 2004 12:48 am

NHC is teasing us with the models--Global Tracks downloaded NoName 89 that was run Monday evening... Happens to be in about the same area but if Im not mistaken, the #89 means its a bogus model used to just sync the models or whatever they do. Am I correct?

Here is the model graphic anyway.

FWBHurricane · #8 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Tue May 25, 2004 11:24 am

Wow...that map places the storm over southern florida then pulling and Andrew, going up towards New Orleans. Looks very farfetched to me.

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Tue May 25, 2004 11:37 am

FWBHurricane wrote:Wow...that map places the storm over southern florida then pulling and Andrew, going up towards New Orleans. Looks very farfetched to me.

couple of things:

1. This was a test system initialized with the same coordinates they always use under an AL80 header. The easy way to go with this stuff is anything AL8* is a test system. Anything AL90-99 are the ranges designated for true invests.

2. The line you see making a B-line for Miami is the extraploated (XTRP) motion of the storm, using the initial course and speed of the system and projecting an extraoplated path over 120 hours. It should be used only as a reference point...but isn't expected to be realistic.

My guess is that they actually did initialize the models on this system (hence 91L) but are having transmission problems with the model product.

MW

Sheared TC?

Sheared TC?

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