Shear Not Being Seduced by Computer Models

[HURAKAN]

As we have been seen for many days, probably a week, computer models have been hinting that the shear would decrease, but as today, almost nothing has happened. We will continue hoping that the shear will end in the next days.

Sandy Delgado

[Steve H.]

Yes Sandy, the real weather currently isn't listening to the models as far as shear is concerned. And as far as shear is concerned it often doesn't

[Guest]

IMO the computer models have laid an egg so far & the season hasn't even started..1st practically every model developed a tropical cyclone & nothing happened,not to downplay the disastrous rains in Hispaniola but it was not the TC the models were insisting on..& then this wind shear business that you speak of.

[Rainband]

IMO the computer models have laid an egg so far & the season hasn't even started..1st practically every model developed a tropical cyclone & nothing happened,not to downplay the disastrous rains in Hispaniola but it was not the TC the models were insisting on..& then this wind shear business that you speak of.

It is easy for computer models to make mistakes...especially when there isn't a "well" defined low to initialize

[HURAKAN]

Also, we have to remember that computers are made by humans, and humans are wrong from time to time.

Sandy Delgado

[Guest]

Lots of times in previous years they've done a admirable job,even in the initial stages..It was'nt just 1 or 2 models,I admit,thats happened many times but every model.

It is extremely rare for every computer model to jump the gun as was the case last week.

[rainstorm]

i hate it when shear is seduced!! lol

[george_r_1961]

Also, we have to remember that computers are made by humans, and humans are wrong from time to time.

Sandy Delgado

Yes humans are wrong from time to time, but there are also undoubtledly many variables that come into play that we do not fully understand and thus cannot be input into the models. All in all though NHC does a hell of a good job in my opinion.

[Matthew5]

I wish I had old satellite pics, then I could show you how well defined that LLCC was when it was moving into southern Hati. This system looked better then anything I saw from Allison.

[Anonymous]

weather is not an exact science and the models I feel do well some of the time. As the system becomes more defined they seem to do better. Models are experimental and probably will never be right all the time at least not in our lifetime.

[wxman57]

I thought that the models did quite well with this system. They predicted the formation of the low center from 7-10 days out and projected its track NNE across eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas quite well. A few of the models were a little too deep with the low center, but many were quite close to the actual pressure.

[HurricaneGirl]

Seduced or reduced?

[Derek Ortt]

Models laid an egg? Models did very well. They predicted a closed to to form and sure enough one did form (CMC was right, but for the wrong reasons, others were right on), Not every low predicted by the models is a TC and in fact, most of the model runs had surface lows forming that looked nothing like a TC

[Steve H.]

I like seduced, kinda falling into the lair. But I was really referring to the shear forecasts from the models. Quite often the pattern doesn't pan out the way the models foresee. The models did a good job with the disturbance as far as location and movement.

[Stormsfury]

I definitely agree with what wxman57 and Derek posted ... yes, all of the models (ALL of THEM) jumped onto the idea of a SFC LOW to develop, some looked tropical, most was developing it under more baroclinic effects. Yesterday, the SFC low, although quite tight, clearly was baroclinic in nature (WV imagery showed an elongated cyclonic environment). Also, remember, the models do tend to be a little overaggressive in reducing shear ...

[HURAKAN]

Let me clarify something, when I used the term "seduced", I meant that although computer models were focused in reducing the shear it will simply not listen them. That the shear was not listening the compter models prediction, not being "seduced" by them. So, don't be confused by the term and neither misjudge it.

Sandy Delgado

[HURAKAN]

I thought that the models did quite well with this system. They predicted the formation of the low center from 7-10 days out and projected its track NNE across eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas quite well. A few of the models were a little too deep with the low center, but many were quite close to the actual pressure.

In completely and absolutely in agreement with you.

Sandy Delgado

[cycloneye]

Sandy the only thing that was not right from the models were the shear forecasts as they forecasted a reduction of the shear but it didn't occured.The models as others haved said tend to forecast with more aggressivness the shear forecast.It shows that we have to take not as a given it is going to happen when you see those grafics with the shear tendency forecasts.

[FWBHurricane]

So far, I dont think the models have been doing well this year. On that wave we were just tracking..the models wanted to develop it and make it turn towards the NW towards southern Florida then head towards New Orleans. Now the windshear models arent making good forcasts. I hope this gets fixed before real storms begin popping up.

[MGC]

The models have actually done a good job forecasting first the low over central American and the low south of haiti. The models have done a bad job on the upper level environment as usual. Models have a hard time with upper levels due to the absents of data......MGC