Western GOM

[LaBreeze]

A local met mentioned that by the end of next week (June 4th) there may be something brewing in the Western GOM. Anyone else picking up on this?

[Brent]

I haven't heard that, but the GOM is the area where if activity were to develop this time of year it would. It might be that front that is coming south, but I really don't know.

[Rainband]

I haven't heard that, but the GOM is the area where if activity were to develop this time of year it would. It might be that front that is coming south, but I really don't know.

That and the western Caribbean

[wxman57]

I may have said that. There's an MJO moving across the central Pacific now, just approaching 120W. I think we may see a storm or two in the eastern Pacific in the next 7 days then some action in the western Caribbean or GOM. Of course, even an MJO can't make something out of nothing. We need some incipient disturbance in place for anything to develop. This could be those weak waves in the SW Caribbean north of Panama/Venezuela.

[Rainband]

Thanks Chris as always!!

[Steve]

Joe B mentioned last week that after the trof split, a piece would wind up in the Gulf. The GFS Ensembles (and possibly the operational models) are beginning to pick up on this. His feeling is that you'd have a setup with a ridge over the Desert SW and a ridge over FL. In my world, that means the N or W Gulf would be the place to look. He said after the 10th, so it's quite possible. As for the western gulf, one of the long range models shows some action in E Mexico, but it didn't appear to be tropical.

Steve

[Josephine96]

It'd be nice to see some tropical development.. It'd also be nice to bring it this way lol..

It's been hot and continues to be VERY dry...

[Guest]

I really don't see anything in the MRF. If something was to show late next week, the MRF would at least hint to it! It must be the GFS that you see it in, it has been spawning ghost systems for the past couple of years in the 8-10+ day period.
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2i&C1=pmsl

[Matthew5]

Bob, the Mrf in the Avn, now makes the GFS "GLOBAL FORECAST system".

[USAwx1]

I really don't see anything in the MRF. If something was to show late next week, the MRF would at least hint to it! It must be the GFS that you see it in, it has been spawning ghost systems for the past couple of years in the 8-10+ day period.
http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/mod ... 2i&C1=pmsl

The GFS has a habit of generating BOGUS tropical disturbances in the Meadium range, when none of the other MR data had any or very little sign of the same thing. It is similar in a way to the antics of the Canadian GGEM last fall and early winter which tried several times to phase POTENTIAL tropical systems with mid-latitude disturbances forming HUGE/DEEP ocean lows.

[Steve]

Exactly right USAwx1.

Bob,

You've got to go out beyond Day 10 to see the thinking of the model. I'm going to have to give the GFS a little credit so far this year. It's been reasonably good (considering) in the face of some of its solutions over the last few weeks. If I can get a screenshot and upload it from another site, I can get GFS beyond the 10 day timeframe probably off Accupro.

Steve

[USAwx1]

Joe B mentioned last week that after the trof split, a piece would wind up in the Gulf. The GFS Ensembles (and possibly the operational models) are beginning to pick up on this. His feeling is that you'd have a setup with a ridge over the Desert SW and a ridge over FL. In my world, that means the N or W Gulf would be the place to look. He said after the 10th, so it's quite possible. As for the western gulf, one of the long range models shows some action in E Mexico, but it didn't appear to be tropical.

Steve

In order for that to work out the way he wants it to....timing will be EVERYTHING, but w/ the MJO pulse, MAY be sufficient enough to tip the scales in his favor on this one WRT development in the WRN or NW GOM.

[Stormsfury]

The GFS has a habit of generating BOGUS tropical disturbances in the Meadium range, when none of the other MR data had any or very little sign of the same thing. It is similar in a way to the antics of the Canadian GGEM last fall and early winter which tried several times to phase POTENTIAL tropical systems with mid-latitude disturbances forming HUGE/DEEP ocean lows.

The GFS was reasonably decent last year showing less in the way of "phantom storms" than in year's past ... but all of the models have some issues at times ... as already stated the GGEM made it a habit of phasing possible TC's with mid-latitude disturbances, but it also scored big with Isabel, (the GFS did EXCELLENT with Isabel's mesovorticies in its inception at the H95 level) and the wave/low that absolutely drenched Puerto Rico (although it never became a tropical system, per se) ..

Bottom line, though is, models will be models, and at times, they will go out to lunch and depict phantoms ... it's the nature of the beast ... and lots of time, trying to tweak with something to correct one bias will end up only creating new biases ... best case scenario was in the case where there was 100% model support of a low developing down in the Caribbean region (which an LP did form) but it's not a perfect world or a perfect system ... definitely keeps it fun ...

SF

[Guest]

That it does Stormsfury.
That MRF is run independently from the GFS or the old AVN.
But either way, we'll keep an eye on the area. There is a question on whether it's from the cold front late next week or a cast over so to say from the EPAC. We'll see what happens.

[Yankeegirl]

We really need the rain here in Houston, so please let it come this way and give us some rain... I dont wanna go in the front yard and do a rain dance!!!

[stormcloud]

Rain needed in Houston? Gee, IAH is nearly 3 inches above average for May and nearly 9 inches above for the year. Don't know about where you live, but the downtown area needs dry weather for the lawns to dry out.

[crazy4disney]

I'm ready to do the rain dance with YankeeGirl... my yard is getting very crispy and my begonias look all sad.

-gina-

[vbhoutex]

Same in West Houston. We are ahead for the year, just like the rest of the metro area, but ithasn't rained in 2 weeks and I don't want to water. A few good showers this weekend would be good as long as it doesn't interrupt any fun stuff!!!

[southerngale]

I got 3 inches of rain in just a couple of hours last week and a good bit the day before that as well. Nothing since then though and nothing really in the forecast.