http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... /june2004/
No change from his april outlook 14/8/3 as he sees an active season in 2004.Read the whole outlook and see how he analizes all the factors that will lead to an active season.Also the landfall probabilities is interesting to see how he thinks it will pan out in terms of landfalls.And read all of what he says about the analog years that is very interesting. What is your opinion about his outlook?
New outlook from Dr Gray=Same numbers as april 14/8/3
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cycloneye
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New outlook from Dr Gray=Same numbers as april 14/8/3
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri May 28, 2004 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mf_dolphin wrote:Having 1969 as an analog year doesn't bring good thought to my mind. Can you say Camille?
My thoughts exactly Marshall!!! BTDT and NEVER want to do it again!!!! As much as I dislike some people in this world I WOULD NEVER WISH WHAT I SAW HAPPEN WITH CAMILLE ON MY WORST ENEMY!! The aftermath, much less the reality of the actual, was beyond comprehension. I was very fortunate in that I was 120 miles from where the eye crossed the coast and what we had was Cat1/Cat2 conditions along with 8'+ storm surge and 40'+ waves out on the island. Exciting to think about? Yes. Exciting to witness what went on 120 miles to my West? Only if I were in a COMPLETELY HURRICANE PROOF GLASS AND STEEL ROOM!!!(along with no loss of life) That same storm today would cause probably upward of $50-75B in damages.
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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 71% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 52% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
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