Take your guess. Already there have been reports of more than seventy (70) tornadoes already this evening. How many do you think we will end up with confirmed through tomorrow and Monday?
Also, how short of a time-span would this have to be to compete with the 140+ tornado outbreak of 1973?
Remember, this poll is for how many tornadoes from Saturday to Monday, a three day time span.
Oh yes, my guess would be
Saturday night into Sunday Morning: 95
Tomorrow into Tomorrow night (IL to OH to KY): 50
Monday (mid-Atlantic): 15
Total: 160
How many tornadoes?
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How many tornadoes?
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Re: How many tornadoes?
Valkhorn wrote:Take your guess. Already there have been reports of more than seventy (70) tornadoes already this evening. How many do you think we will end up with confirmed through tomorrow and Monday?
Confirmed? Zero. The ground surveys from the storms on the twenty-second STILL aren't done. The surveys for the storms today certainly won't be done by Monday.
Also, how short of a time-span would this have to be to compete with the 140+ tornado outbreak of 1973?
The 1974 outbreak made today look like a joke, which I don't think people have a grasp of...just how huge that outbreak was. It was 148 tornadoes counted after a GROUND survey. I suspect had there been an SPC website back then with prelim reports on the day of the tornadoes there would have been 500-600 tornado reports for that one day.
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vbhoutex
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Derecho is not being harsh. He is stating a fact and a conjecture on his part.
Many do not realize that as reports come in when an outbreak is occurring that some are the same tornado being reported by different people. That is partially why the surveys are done-to get the actual numbers right and of course to determine what did actually happen in the damaged areas, which in some ways may help with future outbreak warnings, etc.
As far as the 1974 outbreak is concerned he is stating facts and conjecturing about how communications now would have affected the reporting of that HUGE outbreak. I can't disagree with him on the numbers.
Many do not realize that as reports come in when an outbreak is occurring that some are the same tornado being reported by different people. That is partially why the surveys are done-to get the actual numbers right and of course to determine what did actually happen in the damaged areas, which in some ways may help with future outbreak warnings, etc.
As far as the 1974 outbreak is concerned he is stating facts and conjecturing about how communications now would have affected the reporting of that HUGE outbreak. I can't disagree with him on the numbers.
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Anonymous
Today looks very bad indeed and there will be lots of confirmed tornadoes in the end. However, the 1974 outbreak was unbelievable with numerous confirmed tornadoes and multiple high intensity tornadoes -- including 6 F5s!!
http://www.april31974.com
http://www.april31974.com
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If you notice, the 1974 outbreak was much further east than what is going on right now. If you'll also take note, many tornadoes were in the same line, possibly developing from the same supercells.
One supercell is certainly capable of producing multiple F3, F4, or even F5 level tornadoes. Remember, the Tri-State Tornado was just one supercell that could have possibly developed many tornadoes along the same path.
I also wonder, too, if the reason why this outbreak had a lot of high-strength tornadoes was because of the geography. Notice, where the 1974 outbreak occurred is not tornado alley. That part of the country west of the Appalachians can be very hilly.
One supercell is certainly capable of producing multiple F3, F4, or even F5 level tornadoes. Remember, the Tri-State Tornado was just one supercell that could have possibly developed many tornadoes along the same path.
I also wonder, too, if the reason why this outbreak had a lot of high-strength tornadoes was because of the geography. Notice, where the 1974 outbreak occurred is not tornado alley. That part of the country west of the Appalachians can be very hilly.
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Valkhorn wrote:Boy you two are a little on the conservative side when it's coming to the numbers on this outbreak.
There have been 6-8 PDS watches out today already.
Don't you think we might be dealing with a high number of tornadoes?
I'm just getting tired of multiple posters on multiple boards, and the media, attempting to compare tornado "reports" with ground-truth tornado survey numbers.
(Donning Flameproof suit) Frankly, UP TO THIS POINT (still plenty of time for damaging tornadoes) there's been a serious absence of long-track/powerful tornadoes during the outbreak this weekend, relative to the number of PDS boxes, and long-track F2+ tornadoes are the reason for those boxes, so it's actually been a bit of a bust.
There have been a tremendous number of short-lived tornadoes, cyclic tornadoes, and funnel clouds, but clearly various parameters haven't been suitable for big long-trackers, so (UP TO THIS POINT) this likely isn't going to be remembered as a historic superoutbreak. Still time for things to change.
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Longtrackers?
Take a look at the Super Outbreak in 1974. There weren't that many long trackers, but there were a lot of storms with multiple tornadoes.
You see, the numbers would be LOWER if there were more long trackers, since each touchdown is sometimes considered a distinct tornado.
Some of the supercells in the 1974 outbreak produced a half-dozen tornadoes per ONE cell. Had they produced on average one or two tornadoes per cell, and had more long tracked storms, the 1974 number would perhaps have been less than 100, maybe even less than 80.
Long tracked tornadoes can be just as deadly as the supercells that can produce many tornadoes. The key difference sometimes in the intensity. Variable tornadoes in one cell can make very violent stages with a tornado that is mixed with weaker stages, so you get this ramp-up in intensity sometimes. Whereas a long-tracked tornado is much more stable and probably can't get up that much explosiveness to it in it's violent activity. To get a long-tracked tornado to stay on the ground for a while requires a lot of energy. It's the same principle why some Category 5 hurricanes may explode to a high intensity then immediately weaken. The higher you go, the more you can fall.
The only long tracked tornado I can think of that was catastrophic was the Tri-State Tornado. I'm sure there are more, but how many short-tracked F5 tornadoes can you think of? I can think of a dozen.
Take a look at the Super Outbreak in 1974. There weren't that many long trackers, but there were a lot of storms with multiple tornadoes.
You see, the numbers would be LOWER if there were more long trackers, since each touchdown is sometimes considered a distinct tornado.
Some of the supercells in the 1974 outbreak produced a half-dozen tornadoes per ONE cell. Had they produced on average one or two tornadoes per cell, and had more long tracked storms, the 1974 number would perhaps have been less than 100, maybe even less than 80.
Long tracked tornadoes can be just as deadly as the supercells that can produce many tornadoes. The key difference sometimes in the intensity. Variable tornadoes in one cell can make very violent stages with a tornado that is mixed with weaker stages, so you get this ramp-up in intensity sometimes. Whereas a long-tracked tornado is much more stable and probably can't get up that much explosiveness to it in it's violent activity. To get a long-tracked tornado to stay on the ground for a while requires a lot of energy. It's the same principle why some Category 5 hurricanes may explode to a high intensity then immediately weaken. The higher you go, the more you can fall.
The only long tracked tornado I can think of that was catastrophic was the Tri-State Tornado. I'm sure there are more, but how many short-tracked F5 tornadoes can you think of? I can think of a dozen.
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