I'm really starting to dislike.......

[dixiebreeze]

this scenario:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[Brent]

LOL, I know. It's a ridge.

[Josephine96]

Me too.. especially because we need rain..

[boca]

Hey I drove my car across my once 8 ft lake and my tires never got wet

[FWBHurricane]

OMG this is insane..we havnt had rain in ( atleast a month ) and there is still no relief on the way. Freeport, Florida is about to be scortched by wildfires, it started as a brush fire but spread. And it spread fast too..

[dixiebreeze]

Uh oh. Hope it doesn't spread. Been worrying about another possible fire season. Forecast says maybe a 30 percent chance by Wed. and Thurs. next week. Hope so.

[LilNoles2004]

Dry, hot.... No fires, yet (there were a few months ago).. I know I wouldn't be upset if by some miracle it rained all day on the upcoming holiday.

[Brent]

Hey I drove my car across my once 8 ft lake and my tires never got wet

[Yankeegirl]

I dont live in Florida, but it hasnt rained here either ... I forgot what the rain looks like.. and from what I see on the long range, there is no relief here either...





=raindance

[Aquawind]

Happier Days Ahead!!!


WOOOHOOO !!!


000
FXUS62 KTBW 291700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...HOT AND DRY PATTERN MAY SOON BE CHANGING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...HI PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST TO THE S OF THE FA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR TO
HIGH 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE CHINK IN THE ARMOR IS THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE EACH DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOIST LAYER DEEPENING THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GFS SHOWING PW'S
AS HI AS 1.77 FOR TBW ON MON...WHICH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE. CLIMO
POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 30...WHEREAS PERSISTENCE ARGUES
FOR 0. WITH RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE NRN FA...SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP 20 POPS UP THERE BOTH
SUN AND MON...AND GO WITH A SILENT 10 POP ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...THE HOT...STAGNANT PATTERN WILL FINALLY
BREAK DOWN THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A TROF SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. RECENT MODEL RUNS
ARE DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...HOLDING
THE SURFACE RIDGE AT BAY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...MEANING
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND
AND SOUTH. HOWEVER...A PREFRONTAL TROF MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOCUS AREA. DETAILS ARE A BIT
SKETCHY RIGHT NOW BUT A GENERAL DECREASE IN TEMPS AND INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED.&&

.MARINE...GREAT BOATING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. GENERALLY EXPECT WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH HIGHER VALUES EACH AFTN AND
EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PICKS UP. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
NRN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST...BUT STILL JUST
VALUES AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RH VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S INLAND
LOCATIONS IN THE LATE AFTN AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SFC...
BUT DURATIONS BLO 35 PCT WILL BE LIMITED TO 3 HRS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 77 92 / 00 10 00 10
FMY 73 93 74 92 / 00 10 00 10
GIF 72 96 71 95 / 00 10 00 10
SRQ 73 89 75 88 / 00 10 00 10
BKV 65 92 67 92 / 00 20 00 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

RJS/FWA

[TampaFl]

YIPEEEEEE, Looks like things soon will be changing for the better

Thanks Aquawind.


Robert

[PTrackerLA]

I hope you guys can get some rain where you desperately need it. Haven't had rain in 1 1/2 weeks but considering we've already had 15" this month we needed this dry spell. Amazing that it can be that dry just 500 miles east of here.

[chadtm80]

Starting to get a lil moisture a lil closer to the state now dixie



This is getting OLD

[bevgo]

I sure hope you guys get rain soon. Sound as if you really need it. Here in New Orleans we got rather waterlogged for a whild. We finally were able to dry out some this past week. I just looked outside and it is raining again. Whis we could send some of this your way.

[HurricaneGirl]

I wish those thunderstorms would just slide down a little bit more to the South.....so close but yet so far away

[Aquawind]

Wow it is hot here in Orlando!! Glad I got the express passes at Universal Studios...I saw 96 with a 103 heat index..I have a feeling SSTs in the Adjacent waters will be condusive for development this season..

Bring on that ~cooler weather...lol

Lets hope the rains will continue as expected when they do start..


000
FXUS62 KTBW 311700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2004


.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU WED)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING RESPONSIBLE
FOR ALL OF THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER OF PAST WEEKS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS EXPECT VERY LOW POP SCENARIO (~20%)
TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE GULF COAST...WHERE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TEND TO KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE STABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FAR INTERIOR ZONES. A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO INCREASE PROSPECTS FOR SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN ACROSS MY FAR NORTHERN ZONE ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE
OPTED TO BREAK OFF LEVY COUNTY BY ITSELF AND INCREASE POPS TO ~30% IN
THIS AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND LOW END
SCATTERED RANGE POPS ~30%...INTERIOR AND NORTHERN ZONES...WITH ~20%
POPS CONTINUING IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES FROM TAMPA SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...AND
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS ~70 TO THE LOWER 70S IT WILL CONTINUE TO
FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE.

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-MON)...SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TO PASS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS
NWRD FROM THE SRN TO THE NRN FA. THICKNESSES STILL FORECAST TO DROP
SOME...SO EXPECTING TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO. WITH WEAK SFC GRADIENT...
EXPECT GOOD SEA BREEZES EACH AFTN. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING PW'S EACH DAY TO GIVE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES. WILL BLEND WITH CLIMO AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
POPS AND KEEP AT 40 ALL LOCATIONS SAT-MON.&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE SOME ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS...
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 5 FEET...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND DURATIONS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO WATCHES OR FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 091 077 090/ 00 00 00 20
FMY 074 093 074 092/ 00 00 00 10
GIF 075 094 075 094/ 10 20 10 30
SRQ 077 089 076 089/ 00 00 00 20
BKV 070 092 070 090/ 00 10 10 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM......SHARP

[dixiebreeze]

Well, Levy County is just next door, so maybe we'll get a sprinkle or two

[dixiebreeze]

Update on rain chances for Florida:

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
918 PM EDT Monday may 31 2004

Discussion...west southwest flow continues with a few showers and
thunderstorms developing just outside our forecast area over east
central and South central Florida late this afternoon and evening.
Other showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across North and
northwest Florida and will have to keep an eye on activity moving
toward Levy County. Convection should weaken as it moves toward Levy
County...but will continue to watch and may need to add a small pop
if it holds together. Otherwise...it appears that our stretch of dry
weather may finally be coming to an end later this week as broad
trough develops over eastern U.S. Current zone forecast looks on
track and no update planned at this time.

[chadtm80]

What a Difference a week makes Dixie.. FULL OF MOISTURE NOW

[slosh]

Still no rain here in west central fl, dixiebreeze. I did see a cloud today, but i have been forced to illegally water my lawn.

shhhhhh.................