#5 Postby USAwx1 » Wed Jun 02, 2004 6:52 pm
Most areas across the peninsula will have a good shot tomorrow at additional rainfall and thunderstorms, a few of which COULD be severe.
Surface heating combined with boundary layer dew points of >68F by 21z over much of the state, which will contribute to strong Surface based instability w/ SB CAPE values of over 2000 J/kg by later in the day (see 18z MesoETA sounding at JAX Valid 21z tomorrow) and little CIN.
Convective initiation will take place due to low level convergence along the sea breeze boundaries during the early afternoon hours, and then begin to decrease in coverage and intensity w/ loss of diurnal heating during the late evening hours as the surface stabilizes.
The greater that for organized SVR will be up across the Carolinas and GA, as potent mid level s/w approaches the region combined w/ good upper divergence courtesy of the favorable jet structure/placement over the region.
Furthermore, deep layer shear, and mid level lapse rates are WEAKER over FL than they are further north which may further limit organization.
Will be another warm day as 850H temps hover around 16 C and Low level thicknesses remain in the 1425m range. HOWEVER, cloud cover and developing convection may prevent things from getting VERY hot.
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but we are moving in the right direction 
