INTERESTING ARTICLE IN MIAMI NEWSPAPER

[BonesXL]

CHECK OUT THIS ARTICLE, WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Posted on Fri, Jun. 04, 2004


Emergency managers warn Floridians not to be complacent with storms

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@herald.com


South Florida has beaten the hurricane odds in recent years, but coastal population is growing, storm activity is rising and the region's luck is bound to run out, experts warned Friday as they called for coordinated responses to nature's inevitable assault.

Statistically, South Florida already is overdue for another Big One. The six-month hurricane season began this week.

''Hurricanes, contrary to popular belief, really do happen,'' Craig Fugate, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, told about 200 emergency workers during the annual South Florida Hurricane Conference in Fort Lauderdale. ``There's a lot of denial out there, but if you're in Florida, hurricanes will happen.''

He and others warned of the growing dangers of complacency -- and the growing dangers along our coasts.

Florida is still attracting 800 new residents every day, state officials said, many of them flocking to the coast.

''A lot of them have no clue about what to do in a hurricane,'' said Tom Gallagher, once Florida's insurance commissioner and treasurer, now the state's chief financial officer. ``We have a much higher chance now of catastrophic damage.''

Moreover, said forecaster Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in west Miami-Dade County, more than 60 million Americans live along the East and Gulf coasts.

''Most hurricanes have remained offshore during the last few years,'' he said. ``But that pattern is not going to persist forever.''

Scientists say the Atlantic hurricane zone, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is in the middle of a decades-long period of high activity. Forecasters expect above average action this year, with 12 to 15 tropical storms that become six to eight hurricanes, including two to four intense hurricanes with wind above 110 mph.

Florida has not been struck by an intense hurricane since Andrew, dubbed the Big One, ravaged south Miami-Dade in 1992. Since then, the region has experienced only one hurricane, Irene in 1999, a weak hurricane that delivered torrential rain but not much wind.

Historically, South Florida gets hit once every five years by a hurricane, meaning we're statistically due this year, and once every 10 years by an intense hurricane, which means we're overdue for that terrible experience.

When it happens, wherever it happens, the region must respond in a coordinated fashion, said Broward County Mayor Ilene Lieberman.

``Never is the spirit of regionalization more important than when it comes in response to a natural disaster,` she said. ``We must remember that the lines that divide us are just lines on a map.''

[MWatkins]

I agree that the potential disaster threat has increased due to increased population and land value...no qualms there.

But I have to dissent on the topic of being overdue. I posted a similar reply on another thread...and since I'm lazy...I have pasted it below rather than type it again.

Thanks for the article...here's the info from last weeks post:

There really isn't such a thing as "Overdue" probability wise. I'll explain.

The difference is between shuffling and randomizing. Let's say we were betting on whether or not a black card would be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards. If I'm betting that it will happen, my chance of winning the bet goes up every time a red card comes off the deck, as long as the old cards are not used again.

At the onset of the bet, 26 of the 52 cards are black, giving me a 50% chance of being right. If we go 20 deals in a row with a red card, my chances of winning go WAY up because sooner or later a black card is "due", in this case I have 26 chances with 32 cards left, a whopping 82% chance. The deck is shuffled, but a card cannot appear more than once.

Nature, however, does not shuffle...it is random. Every season, and every storm, is one card out of a full deck. Nature reshuffles after every card (storm) is played, meaning that the probabilty of having a black card for our bet is ALWAYS 50%. It never changes.

Thus, the deck is always randomized. So even if we pulled 26 red cards in a row, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next one is black.

MW

[wxman57]

It's not as simple as a matter of chance like with playing cards. The atmosphere is changing, and steering patterns are changing. This stacks the deck against Florida. Cold-phase PDO, above normal Atlantic SSTs, and a gradual shift to positive NAO mean Florida better watch out!

[jlauderdal]

It's not as simple as a matter of chance like with playing cards. The atmosphere is changing, and steering patterns are changing. This stacks the deck against Florida. Cold-phase PDO, above normal Atlantic SSTs, and a gradual shift to positive NAO mean Florida better watch out!
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2004 Season Forecast -- Another active season, but numbers are really unimportant. Major hurricane landfall likely in the southeast U.S. - particularly in Florida.

I agree with Mike. In one given year the pattern may setup for a florida landfall but in time(infinite) the deck is reshuffled each year. Also, who said "Major hurricane landfall likely in the southeast U.S. - particularly in Florida"...I think the group would like to see the reasoning behind this or is it just opinion which of course we are all entitled too.

Finally getting rain in sofla although none at my place on the coast.

Thanks

[wxman57]

It's not like reshuffling cards each year, it's like changing decks when the major steering patterns change. From a deck with equal chances or less to one with 5 or more times the amount of Florida "hit" cards.

During the last two cool periods in the North Atlantic (1900-1926 and 1970-1994), The Florida peninsula was hit by only a single major hurricane in each. But during the last 25 years of the previous warm cycle (1944-1969), the peninsula was hit by 12 major hurricanes. That's one every 2 years. So there's a very high correlation of south Florida hits with warm Atlantic SSTs, and we've just begun what looks like a 20-40 year warm Atlantic SST regime. And only now has the PDO come into phase to match the same atmospheric patterns that we saw from 1944-1969. So the deck is now highly stacked against Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

It's not as simple as a matter of chance like with playing cards. The atmosphere is changing, and steering patterns are changing. This stacks the deck against Florida. Cold-phase PDO, above normal Atlantic SSTs, and a gradual shift to positive NAO mean Florida better watch out!

I agree and I think he is talking about my past thread in which I also stated that Florida is overdue.

Overdue does not necessarily mean it is going to happen this year, but Florida is overdue and that is what they are getting at in the article.

[MWatkins]

It's not like reshuffling cards each year, it's like changing decks when the major steering patterns change. From a deck with equal chances or less to one with 5 or more times the amount of Florida "hit" cards.

During the last two cool periods in the North Atlantic (1900-1926 and 1970-1994), The Florida peninsula was hit by only a single major hurricane in each. But during the last 25 years of the previous warm cycle (1944-1969), the peninsula was hit by 12 major hurricanes. That's one every 2 years. So there's a very high correlation of south Florida hits with warm Atlantic SSTs, and we've just begun what looks like a 20-40 year warm Atlantic SST regime. And only now has the PDO come into phase to match the same atmospheric patterns that we saw from 1944-1969. So the deck is now highly stacked against Florida.

Well...that's a different argument. The article posted above...and the one last week and a couple of others I've seen recently have all stated mostly the same thing:

1. Florida has been lucky. -- TRUE. Florida has been very lucky.

2. Florida is due because they average a hurricane once every x years and a major hurricane every y years...and the last major was Andrew. --FALSE.

Probability simply does not work that way. For example...take my all-time favorite baseball player in his prime...George Brett. He had some streaks where he went 0 for 20 or 1 for 30 or something like that. Statistically...he's one of the best players ever...and that alone suggested that he had an above average chance of getting a hit.

George could have started a season 10/100 (.100) and still been in the starting lineup. But that did not in and of itself increase the overall chance that George would hit a homer his next time up.

What you are suggesting (that certian factors...other than probability) will increase the threat of a possible landfall...IS valid. It's just not the point I was making.

If George comes up...against a horrible pitcher with a sore arm...in his favorite ball-park with the wind blowing out to right field at 30mph...that would suggest that George has an increased chance of hitting a homer. That's your point and I agree with it.

Had Max Mayfield said that Florida has in increased chance of experiencing a hurricane due to many known indicators pointing that way...that's cool. But saying Florida needs to lookout because they are "due" is a load of garbage...statistically speaking.

Here's something that people down here forget. In the years 1947-1950 (4 years) Broward county had 6 hurricane events with 2 being majors.

Since 1965 (39 years) they've had one. Andrew.

So to combine the two points...this year may be like starting with a deck of 49 cards with 3 red ones removed. But statistically speaking...Florida is not due.

MW

[Anonymous]

I agree that the potential disaster threat has increased due to increased population and land value...no qualms there.

But I have to dissent on the topic of being overdue. I posted a similar reply on another thread...and since I'm lazy...I have pasted it below rather than type it again.

Thanks for the article...here's the info from last weeks post:

There really isn't such a thing as "Overdue" probability wise. I'll explain.

The difference is between shuffling and randomizing. Let's say we were betting on whether or not a black card would be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards. If I'm betting that it will happen, my chance of winning the bet goes up every time a red card comes off the deck, as long as the old cards are not used again.

At the onset of the bet, 26 of the 52 cards are black, giving me a 50% chance of being right. If we go 20 deals in a row with a red card, my chances of winning go WAY up because sooner or later a black card is "due", in this case I have 26 chances with 32 cards left, a whopping 82% chance. The deck is shuffled, but a card cannot appear more than once.

Nature, however, does not shuffle...it is random. Every season, and every storm, is one card out of a full deck. Nature reshuffles after every card (storm) is played, meaning that the probabilty of having a black card for our bet is ALWAYS 50%. It never changes.

Thus, the deck is always randomized. So even if we pulled 26 red cards in a row, there is still a 50/50 chance that the next one is black.

MW

I would Have to agree with Mike... Just because Florida hasnt been hit by a major since 1992 doesnt mean our chances are greater--Its all chance--a flip of the coin as to yes or no.... Weather is everchanging-every storm is in a different wx enviroment and everything has to fall together just right for any one location to be hit--there is no way to say at the beginning of the season-fla in particular-lookout! Fl in particular should look out every year because we have 2 coasts. Dr gray did it best by putting the whole East coast at a 52% chance--so to me, its like being in a tornado watch---conditions favor someone on the east coast getting hit. You wouldnt say at the beginning of the watch that a particular county is gonna get a tornado when the dry line is just developing. So same applies to hurricanes IMHO FWIW.

[hurricanefloyd5]

if someone reshuffeled that deck and that card a landfall in florida even central florida comes up then someone will be screwed in a hugh way but must i reminded everyone that here nin orlando where i lived that a hurricane hasn't hit here since hurricane erin in 95 and a major hurricane since hurricane donna......... central floridqa is 15 yrs overdue for a hurricane and 40+ yrs for a major hurricane so i think we here in orlando have a good chance hit by a hurricane or major hurricane this year............................